Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[sandbank] 10/10/2012 10:38

SIMON CAWKWELL is right to be wary. There is a fair bit of jargon in today's results but I didn't like the sound of:-

"Although the phasing of Backlog is more back-ended than expected, existing satellites are expected to be full at current run rate in 2016"

Sounds like they're not selling contracts all that quickly. Another bit I didn't like was :-

"Good demand in Northern Europe has been evident during the year, and in order to convert the demand to sales Avanti has focused its marketing resources on supporting a small number of key service providers in their drive to increase penetration. In Southern Europe, the picture is weaker, with service providers struggling to make commitments to their own sales and marketing expenditure necessary. For this reason, Avanti launched a ground breaking Pay As You Go product, whereby a service provider is billed only for the data actually used by each customer."

...That sounds like discounting to me.

Also, nowhere in the report is the dreaded work "latency" mentioned.

[geheimnis2] 10/10/2012 10:23

thanks for the BUY signal, cawky

how is your GNG long going?

;-)

[parvez] 10/10/2012 10:21

vivgav, i believe longer term these will come good, however for the moment i.e. today what is the "good buying signal"?

[vivgav] 10/10/2012 10:18

Good buying signal!

[simon cawkwell] 10/10/2012 10:11

Gentlemen,

For the avoidance of doubt I have again shorted AVN at 295p this morning. This company does not smell right to me.

Simon Cawkwell

[verymaryhinge] 10/10/2012 10:10

SG1 you are correct, and for the long haul, I'd rather see real money from directors buying rather than free options issued.. (and even if it's a bit of both, DW has substantial money OF HIS OWN in this.. it's not the only thing, clearly but it's a pretty good bell weather.

[parvez] 10/10/2012 10:10

alexx & SHANKSAZ,
Thanks for your response - wonder if he has shorted them again today? Any idea how one would find out who if anyone is shorting this stock?

[volvo] 10/10/2012 10:04

JC my 68500 was built overtime and are all the money lol..........but who cares.

This not a purchase for today. Its a purchase to gett excited about in 1-3 years, especially with Hylas2 gaining strong momentum.........and Hylas 3 being launched.

Anyhow thats the longer term........the shorter term is NATO and a buy out. dyor.

[superg1] 10/10/2012 10:04

all this director buying hype.

Didn't they buy all the way down.

Every time they did the same hype appeared.

[alexx] 10/10/2012 10:01

Parvez 10 Oct'12 - 08:17 - 10822 of 10839

As SHANKSAZ says, all in the past.

He doesn't have AVN on his list of current shorts

[verymaryhinge] 10/10/2012 10:01

seems it's now been re-rated based upon todays news, I suspect therfore that long term this is a reasonable entry point. This is annoying as my entry point is somewhat higher than this. The majority is in my sipp and cash account, but some is on a spread bet - the question is whether to run the spread or close it. I think the answer is (post the DW purchase)to add here and run it for a while longer..

[piadda] 10/10/2012 09:54

Happy to follow the directors with a few more at 297p.

[zooshare] 10/10/2012 09:43

good opp, bought a few below 300. gla

[superg1] 10/10/2012 09:38

nightspot

Thanks

Where are the details that show the £175m loan is backloaded re payments

[johncsimpson] 10/10/2012 09:33

VOLVO 10 Oct'12 - 09:15 - 10849 of 10851

Nice to know the directors are buying today............also nice to know I bettered their price...........eh JC lol.

-----------------------------

I wouldn't be 'lol' - but at least you also bettered the price you paid for your 78k purchase(s) which were well above 350 and probably nearer 400! So conservatively £40k down on paper. It wouldn't happen if you used charts . . . and you've still not explained how you bought 10k this morning. But then you never do explain things do you?

[dunluce] 10/10/2012 09:31

Taken the opportunity for a small top up today. Think too much focus on the negatives today (although hardly surprising given the markets). The increased capacity in H2 and continuing increase in backlog (even if differently weighted than expected) plus c.£72K further director buys provides confidence moving forwards.

[count chris] 10/10/2012 09:26

I'm having a quick spread bet long at 296 probably to be closed later today.

[shanksaj] 10/10/2012 09:22

Parvez 10 Oct'12 - 08:17 - 10822 of 10849

does anyone know if SC is shorting this stock?


Parvez,
Simon Cawkwell closed his short quite a while ago, and hasn't said anything since.

[nightspot] 10/10/2012 09:20

superg1, you are confusing costs with cash flow.

Firstly, the loan repayments will themselves add not 1 cent to costs.
Secondly, the repayments are backend loaded so cash outflow will not be £30m

Of course interest on H2 loan and H2 depreciation will kick in now that H2 is operational. Profits delayed,yes, but come thay will. Todays share price fall has more than priced in the disappointments. Remember there is now extra capacity available to sell so for me, the future looks promising. Now imo is the time to accumulate.

[volvo] 10/10/2012 09:15

Nice to know the directors are buying today............also nice to know I bettered their price...........eh JC lol.

[backmarker] 10/10/2012 09:09

buywell2,

35,786 kilometres high (geostationary orbit)

[buywell2] 10/10/2012 09:08

Staff numbers also rising fast = overheads up

VERY capital intensive model this

Just ONE tech problem with ONE rocket and the share price could take a wallop

Hence RISK / RETURN too high for mois

[verymaryhinge] 10/10/2012 09:06

CEO bought at 305