Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[jeffian] 04/6/2012 17:37

And as I said before, I disagree. Hylas2 up there and functioning cannot be worth the same as it is sitting in its box waiting for launch. It just isn't logical. Such value as the market attributes to Hylas2 must be discounted by the risk of delay or potentially complete loss. Remove that risk and the discount goes with it. I imagine there will be a spike on successful launch, though whether the share price can hold onto it is another matter.......

[johncsimpson] 04/6/2012 15:57

For buywell (mostly) – I've decided to put this on the AVN thread since it was here you asked me my opinion.

I'm in no position to make noises about XEN re fundamentals; I know nothing about them but I said I'd look from a chartists point of view so I'll give that my best shot though it's not going to be too difficult . . .

I do have some opinions on the biotech industry but they're not born from too much knowledge. I subscribe to BioTech Alert. It's a fairly new tip sheet - only this year so has no track record to speak of. It publishes every fortnight - thirteen issues so far. It's mostly American 'companies' that have been reviewed (and not too many in total, but as the dollar is strengthening and may get even stronger as the euro weakens it may be no bad place to have some money). I only mention BioTech Alert because my general perspective on bio companies is that irrespective of what they are developing / trying to develop, it's a minefield. I wouldn't exactly say that research is like trying to find a needle in a haystack but in general terms, that is what I feel it is. One difference, however, is that although a haystack is a rather random structure, bio-chemists (or whoever) have had a lot of success with drug research etc. targeting specific parts of the 'haystack'. And their haystack isn't quite so random and is actually better understood. Poor analogy and very, very vague but that's my problem. It's all an area I don't readily understand. But I've decided to start to learn or try to learn. The other problem is I have a scant general knowledge of biology (and also physics and chemistry). The only 'ology' I ever studied with any success was geology.

But then I know naff all about satellite technology and that hasn't stopped me 'investing' there. But satellite technology is a different animal - most of us will understand the concept (or at least workings) of broadband, wireless broadband, wireless technology in general, and fibre optic cable / delivery etc. and without too much difficulty.

At the turn of the century, few people had the internet and hardly anyone had access to anything other than dial up. Only a few understood the concept of mp3 and even fewer had the kit to utilise the technology. Then, CDs were the norm for music delivery and few people had mobile phones or mobile 'bricks' as they then were.

But I look at it as a parallel road to the dot com boom through and up to the late 90s. A lot of people made a fortune buying into the market without understanding the nature of the 'technologies' that they were buying into. Paradoxically many lost money for the same reason. So why wouldn't it be the same with bios, especially with an ageing population and all those WWII 'baby boomers' out there just moving into retirement. So my take would be to carefully choose half a dozen bio shares, then using 'my charting skills' try and buy in the dips and sell in the highs. Within all this I'd be hoping that at least one of my choices actually did 'strike gold'.

So far I've bought two lots of ReNeuron and I'm just in profit. (Or at least I was mid-week). I'm banking on a price rise for no other reason than I expect bio mania to be the next dot com boom. And if ReNeuron ever do 'find something', then Wack-o the Frogies. Call it getting in early,

As relates to picking shares in general, there are thousands of stocks out there and I've tried all sorts of filters to select shares that meet certain criteria. It seems no more successful than randomly sticking a pin in the Financial Times. Nowadays, rightly or wrongly, I'm heavily reliant on tip sheets – that's my filter system; saves a lot of data mining and focuses the mind. I no longer have a 'portfolio' consisting of numerous shares but follow six to ten (it obviously varies) often buying in and out of the same share. It mostly works and I only really come unstuck when I go for a new business that has no history but tremendous potential. The trouble is you can't quantify potential.

The other lesson(s) I've learnt (and it still applies to the way I think) is not to put all your eggs in one basket. And whatever else you do DON'T fall in love with a share.

After that I try to follow some of Warren Buffet;'s rules / observations:

Rule No.1: Never lose money.

Rule No.2: Even more important, never forget rule number one.

3 It's better to hang out with people who are more clued-up than you. Pick out 'associates' whose behaviour is better than yours and you'll generally drift along in the same direction.

4 In the business world, the rear view mirror is usually clearer than the windscreen. (Once you can get your head around this, charts as relating to shares become far friendlier and less intimidating).

5 Don't try to jump over 6 foot bars: Look around for 1 foot bars that you can step over. Financial history is full of people who had a little success and then thought they were gurus

6 Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy; (Very important for chartists). Profit from folly rather than participate in it. (In time, this will probably make you a trader rather than an investor).

7 Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing. Remember, the stock market is a wonderful vehicle for transferring wealth from the impatient to the patient.

8 Should you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted trying to patch up the leaks.

9 You only have to do one or two things right in your life; just don't do too many things wrong.

And of course Buffet's most famous.....

Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.


So cutting to the chase re Xenetic:

When I looked at the chart for XEN I couldn't find any price data before October 2000 when it was in excess of 1500p. Close of play on Friday it was under 6p, so one hell of a fall from grace.

I use three basic sets of charts. The first's an eliminator – end of story short term. The second's a 'well that's changed' and the third's 'well that's changed and maybe reversed' at which point I start monitoring in earnest.

Within these three basic sets, the third has the most sub sets as I try to time my entry and exit points.

Right now, XEN doesn't get passed the first set. It's a non-starter and because of that, I wouldn't touch it with a barge pole. It may have potential but that's all; it falls at the first hurdle of my charting system (see rule 5 above). But having said all that, ReNeuron falls into a similar (but not exactly same) category as Xenetic. But another difference is I have some help with the fundamentals of RENE. So I guess in different ways, they're both leaps of faith. XEN is now in my monitoring list of about twenty shares which means I'll be following your thread and its progress and I'll let you know if it turns up in BioAlert though BioAlert has yet to get to a stage where anything mentioned gets a price fillip.

[johncsimpson] 02/6/2012 17:27

Good advice buywell. In the end I didn't.

Just been looking at the other side. Some right old pony passing between colva and backmarker Friday afternoon. Jeez, it makes you weep.

[backmarker] 02/6/2012 13:32

see this link for reason delay Echostar XVII:

[buywell2] 01/6/2012 18:41

Patience is a vitue I have found

It don't pay to chase the market .... let it come to you

[yorgi] 01/6/2012 16:28

Chart....I think launch date is what will do it :-)

[backmarker] 01/6/2012 16:27

chart looking good for an interesting Wednesday !

[backmarker] 01/6/2012 16:26

Ariane mission status now just has "June" as launch date for VA207

[yorgi] 01/6/2012 16:26

Yep I thought we would hold 300p looking at it this afternoon and it is going to then I believe it will move forward next week as sight of the launch date gets closer.......:-)

[johncsimpson] 01/6/2012 16:13

It's been a good year - let's see if we can tempt the mms to sell at 295

Added - Nope, c'est la vie . . .

[johncsimpson] 01/6/2012 15:50

Looks like my limit buys are not going to be filled. All three of my indicators are now flickering between neutral and negative so maybe the moment's passed.

[yorgi] 01/6/2012 15:38

Coming back now.....it is only going to take a good RNS or launch fever to set it and we will move on up in my opinion. I'm not so sure we are glued to 300p area John but proving "sticky" but as I say I don't think it is going to take a lot to get us moving on.

[yorgi] 01/6/2012 14:48

Well the market is down pretty much all round and hope that Wednesday brings a more realistic outlook that there is life after the Euro.......Maybe the Jubilee mood will do the job.....:-)

[johncsimpson] 01/6/2012 14:09

AVN is hanging on in there . . . I've two of three indicators that I use now gone negative and have been for some time, the third has been tripping from neutral to negative during the past forty minutes while that last lot of sells and buys went through.

[2350220] 01/6/2012 13:50

Has someone stuck some glue on the chart, at around the 300p mark??

John

[colva] 01/6/2012 13:48

backmarker ,

Yes you're right ,i assumed (wrongly) that the vertical line was midnight 31st May but looking at it again it looks like midday 1st June so yes the convergence is the following day , which would now be wednesday, so Fingers and johncsimpson both have the 6th June as a key date .

[johncsimpson] 01/6/2012 13:46

Oh - dropped through 300 on the offer whilst I did the previous post.

Could this be it?

[johncsimpson] 01/6/2012 13:44

This screen shot was taken in the past hour and shows little difference from the end of day Wednesday. Yesterday, AVN did make a tentative move back towards the zero line on the MACD but has been unable to hold this 'advance'.

I was expecting a price drop towards and perhaps down through 280p sometime this week and obviously that would now have to be today. It's still possible, of course, and I have several limit buy orders placed. Should these not be filled then I'll have to 'phase buy' at whatever price prevails in the last half hour.

So why the need to buy today? Answer over the weekend . . .

[buywell2] 01/6/2012 13:09

I float from place to place keeping warm

My preference being NZ North Island where I will be leaving for in September , currently dealing with some domestic odds and ends

Once dealt with I shall depart never to return except maybe to buy a place in the IOW or maybe Sidmouth when the UK property market bottoms.

[backmarker] 01/6/2012 12:47

NB. those with fake tans probably already have thick skins.

[backmarker] 01/6/2012 12:45

colva,

on fingers' chart the vertical line is 1st day of June, the convergence is the following working day.

[johncsimpson] 01/6/2012 12:38

Hello again buywell - Will look at Xenetic over the (long) weekend.

I live in France just north of St Foye la Grande in the Dordogne. Early retired and been here for 6+ years - and you?

[2350220] 01/6/2012 10:50

Ha ha, love it:
"apply some skin-thickener".

I can just see folk going to their doctors and asking for a jar of skin-thickener to go with their fake tan!!

John