Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[julcester] 16/6/2010 13:39

I think the drop is caused by the solar storm which NASA has just forecast to destroy all satellites in 2013. Would account for Immarsats fall as well. Shame.

[sco77harris] 16/6/2010 13:11

might be to do with immarsat dropping

[sg31] 16/6/2010 13:00

Tritan,At the moment it is all market noise.The main driver of the AVN share price is the upcoming launch.If that is a success and occurs sometime this year the share price will increase.It may go up and down a bit in the interim but unless you are trying to trade it that doesn't matter.This isn't really a traders share so I assume most will be here until the launch.
This isn't a share where Level 2 and what is on the bid or offer have much meaning.
Anyone who has bought AVN has spotted a good opportunity to make money lets enjoy it.

[simon gordon] 16/6/2010 09:34

Jeffries - 1/6/10

We are initiating coverage of Avanti Communications with a Buy recommendation and a price target of £8.50, a 15% discount to our stand-alone DCF valuations of Hylas 1 and 2.

Key Points

• The near 10% CAGR of the global fixed satellite service market since 2005 has been underpinned by solid fundamentals which, in our view, remain intact. The demand for bandwidth is growing very rapidly and on current growth rates may start to bump up against supply constraints.

• Avanti, given its early-mover status in Ka-band, is positioned to ride a number of potentially powerful demand drivers: 1) the addressable market for satellite broadband within its footprint is potentially very large; 2) HD TV is buoying Ku-band pricing with spill-over effects likely into Ka-band; 3) there is growing demand for military use (UAV's and soldier welfare), 4) emerging market telecoms are growing rapidly and Avanti's presence in MENA and sub-Saharan Africa is a positive, and 5) the explosive growth in mobile data will require a ramp-up in backhaul capacity which Ka-band has the potential to provide very cost effectively for base stations in remote locations.

• The company's addressable market for broadband access is estimated at more than 100m homes. It will fully sell-out capacity on its two satellites at 1.3m.

• Mobile backhaul could be the big upside surprise in the Avanti story. The company recently completed a trial with a major mobile company using satellite capacity for backhaul and is now in negotiations with several operators for Hylas capacity. If 5% of the UK's 55,000 base stations employ 10Mbs of satellite backhaul that would amount to more than double the capacity of the two satellites. And that's just for the UK.

[someuwin] 16/6/2010 09:19

Just keep adding is my advice. These should be heading to £10 in a couple of months.

[tritan] 16/6/2010 08:58

Only because of my earlier comments being picked up on as being paranoid rubbish. Probably shouldn't be smiling though as I want it to go up and think it will eventually. I'm hoping its just market noise and MMs playing games.

[sco77harris] 16/6/2010 08:54

why the :) lol

[tritan] 16/6/2010 08:40

Growing more suspicious by the day :)

[sco77harris] 16/6/2010 08:34

down everyday getting a bit sad :(

[yorgi] 15/6/2010 14:36

I didn't think there was any uncertinty over the launch date although I accept that there is always some element of risk that it may not be launched on time

[tritan] 15/6/2010 14:03

Jimbo55 - 15 Jun'10 - 13:22 - 1561 of 1562

>Paranoid Rubbish!

A healthy bit of suspicion only. No PI knows for sure what's going on and I was merely pointing out that there is some strong support at 450 and if the share price was to sustain a break below this level it would smell a little given the uncertainty about the launch still. I'll hopefully be proven wrong as I have a vested interest in this share 'rocketing' upwards but I thought it would be above 500p by now given all the contract wins.

Here's hoping you all reply with 'I told you so' in September :)

[yorgi] 15/6/2010 13:43

Don't mince your words Jimbo :-) but I do agree

[jimbo55] 15/6/2010 13:22

> Tritan - 15 Jun'10 - 11:56 - 1558 of 1560
>
> If this breaks 450 then someone knows something we dont!!!

Paranoid Rubbish!

Somebody else posted almost the same thing last time AVN dipped, and I've lost count of the number of times I've seen such statements on other BBs when share prices take a dip, and they turn out to be exactly what I stated above.

[yorgi] 15/6/2010 12:32

It fell below 450p in March for no reason so that could well be the case now, what I hope is the case anyway. Launch was only recently confirmed as on time although that could have changed and more contracts won so I'm not concerned

[sg31] 15/6/2010 12:05

A lot of people know things I don't.

[tritan] 15/6/2010 11:56

If this breaks 450 then someone knows something we dont!!!

[judeboys] 14/6/2010 18:03

OK thank you, I had read the RNS 12.5

Except It's is no longer 'potential' for Soyuz slippage - the Russians have announced it has slipped to 17 Dec,

Lifted from spaceflightnow

Launch time: TBD
Launch site: Kourou, French Guiana

An Arianespace Soyuz rocket will launch on its first mission from the Guiana Space Center in South America. The payload for this flight is the HYLAS communications satellite for Avanti Communications of the United Kingdom. The Soyuz 2-1a rocket will use a Fregat upper stage. Arianespace will oversee the commercial launch. Delayed from May, July and September. [May 12]

It will be good to get a firm Sep date issued by Arianespace.
jude

[sg31] 14/6/2010 17:34

This was an RNS 12/5/10 so nothing we didn't already know.No delay.

Press Releases
Avanti Communications Group plc
Launch schedule update
12 May 2010

Download the full version here

Avanti Communications Group plc (AIM: AVN), the broadband satellite operator, has today been notified by Arianespace of the potential (but not certainty) for several weeks of schedule slippage in relation to the readiness of the Soyuz launch at Kourou. Arianespace further confirmed that in accordance with the Launch Service Agreement it is ready to launch HYLAS 1 using an Ariane 5 vehicle if necessary which will ensure the launch will take place by end of September 2010 in accordance with the HYLAS 1 delivery schedule. The Ariane 5 is rated at the same low risk level by insurance underwriters in terms of reliability and quality. Therefore the potential for Soyuz slippage does not have an impact on HYLAS 1 launch schedule and no decision is required yet as to the selection of the launch vehicle.

[simon gordon] 14/6/2010 17:33

12/5/10:

Arianespace further confirmed that in accordance with the Launch Service Agreement it is ready to launch HYLAS 1 using an Ariane 5 vehicle if necessary which will ensure the launch will take place by end of September 2010 in accordance with the HYLAS 1 delivery schedule. The Ariane 5 is rated at the same low risk level by insurance underwriters in terms of reliability and quality. Therefore the potential for Soyuz slippage does not have an impact on HYLAS 1 launch schedule and no decision is required yet as to the selection of the launch vehicle.

====

Looks like it'll be Ariane then....

[judeboys] 14/6/2010 17:27

This was published on 14 May - quoting Hylas 1 will be delayed till 17 Dec (3 months). Similar reports on Russian TV and in the French press. Still no word about this from Avanti.


Spaceflightnow.con Tracking Station & worldwide launch schedule



Ariane 5 programme is in backlog therefore some launch dates will have to slip - as no firm Sep date has been issued for Hylas1 on Ariane 5 and the site has HYLAS now moved into the 4th quarter Is this a cause for concern to anyone else here?

jude

[sco77harris] 12/6/2010 18:58

been trying to work out how much business they have guaranteed so far, think its at least 50 million and a possible contract worth 114 million, so not bad imo before launch even.

[sg31] 11/6/2010 19:15

Hope the rocket goes straighter than the share price in the past few weeks, very disappointing.

Your timescale is wrong I'm afraid.This is not really a share to trade or take a short term view on.When the satellite is launched and working you can reasonably expect a higher price.If you look 3 years ahead it will be higher again.Any share price movements in the next few weeks are just market noise.
Relax and enjoy the ride.

[abwr75] 11/6/2010 17:01

Hope the rocket goes straighter than the share price in the past few weeks, very disappointing. Lets hope it goes into orbit along with the SP!

[someuwin] 11/6/2010 16:50

Good to see AVN the 4th biggest holding in the SF t1ps Smaller Companies Growth Fund...


Top Ten Holdings (as at 10/06/2010)

Telecom Plus 6.29%
Medusa Mining 6.18%
Minoan 5.56%
Avanti Communications 5.13%
Avisen 4.25%
Mirada Plc 10% Loan Stk 4.2%
Forbidden Technologies 4.1%
Domino's Pizza (UK) 3.43%
Northern Petroleum 3.26%
Nexus Management Conv Ln 3.15%

[sco77harris] 11/6/2010 12:48

does anyone know what all these propose contracts add up to in terms of guaranteed revenue, and potential? would be interesting to see how well the share price is supported by business already agreed.