Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[gorvachof] 28/11/2012 13:50

Phoenix I am certain this would have to be one of your all time classics........"They got the decimal point in the wrong place".

[loverat] 28/11/2012 13:21

Thing is, it is not really that hard to predict companies which are going to fall during a given period. Why he needs to take part in vague scaremonging and write crummy articles to support his shorting suggests he does not always have confidence in his decisions. When he calls something wrong (NVTA at 1p when he shorted - rose to 10p) it makes him look a right plonker. TW is absolutely clueless IMO.

[waterloo01] 28/11/2012 13:15

He's made his money already. What's the betting he'll go long shortly. Traders!

[jadeticl] 28/11/2012 12:57

Formerly I read Tom W's web news, which then always included articles by EK--it appeared they were big mates. I have not been a member of this tip sheet for a couple of years. However, I was not impressed then by EK's acumen. Yes he sometimes did have a good base for his 'short stance', but often it was couched in terms such as "someone rang me today to say.." or "there is a rumour...". I was not sure whether this was his mannerism, and that he had good solid reasons but could not divlge them, or whether he operated on such flimsy information and sometimes got it right bigtime. For me he got it wrong as often as he got it right, although he probably made more when he got it right than he lost when he got it wrong. I am ignoring his stance on AVN because to me they have too much going for them, and in operational terms they have delivered. However, EK will be laughing today, and eating out on my money!

[garymott] 28/11/2012 11:32

jeffian, done :-)

[jeffian] 28/11/2012 11:22

It makes sense to have the IMS's around the period ends.

(Gary, your link doesn't work. You need to edit it to remove the brackets.)

[garymott] 28/11/2012 11:03

See my post 11308 from two days ago.

Today, the AVN website has a modified statement. See

Now the Interim Management Statements will be in the 2nd and 4th quarters (instead of May and November).

So we may have to wait until the end of December! Not sure if this is good or bad news. Lets hope the BOD have finally woken up to the seriousness of the situation and will finally get its act together.

[m1das_touch] 28/11/2012 10:48

Results not due until February.

[jeffian] 28/11/2012 10:46

Plasbryn,

They've only just had the AGM a few days ago. What results were you expecting?!

[m1das_touch] 28/11/2012 10:45

EK thinks there's something 'fishy' - now there's a meaningful financial analysis if ever I heard one...shorters will always tend to de-ramp using rumour or speculation, just as holders will tend to ramp!

Net assets (excluding intangibles) are 233.20p per share.

Worth remembering that there are some significant institutional shareholders: -

1 M&G Investment Management Limited 21,790,683 19.50%
2 Caledonia Investments plc 15,347,000 13.73%
3 The Capital Group Companies, Inc. 6,942,112 6.21%
4 Government of Singapore Investment Corporation Pte Ltd 6,902,240 6.18%
5 Legal & General Investment Management Limited 3,949,939 3.54%
6 Directors' Holdings 3,906,150 3.50%
7 Employee Benefit Trust 3,825,655 3.42%
8 Barclays, Plc. 3,483,295 3.12%
9 FOUR Capital Partners Limited 3,395,519 3.04%

I for one am happy to hold and ignore the noise. Long-term I still believe there's value here.

[verymaryhinge] 28/11/2012 10:42

with respect, if you're short +/- 300 because of sales numbers, and short it with a target of +/- 200, you'll start to take you're short off the table at 215 - 25ish.. though you'll still be talking it down..

[papillon88] 28/11/2012 10:38

EK Concerned about the accounts and is short

[loverat] 28/11/2012 10:35

Shorters are generally betting on movements over shorter periods. Therefore Simon Cawkwell and others are unlikely to think these are going bust - at this stage at least. Last time I remember him posting (after the last biggish fall following the statment) he did elude to knowing something but if my memory serves correct he was talking in terms of shorting to £2 and what he knew was probably tittle tattle. DYOR

[woozle1] 28/11/2012 10:28

Rogk .. How do you know that there are 2m shares short .. That seems crazy unless of course the shorter knows something that we do not .. It's trading at less than 50% of Net Assets .. So to short at these levels you must be either (a) nuts or (b) totally convinced that this company is going bust .. I don't know which but I know from history that stocks rarely stay at these types for valuations for long .. W

[plasybryn] 28/11/2012 10:12

Results due soon? Then we will have a better understanding of what has or hasn't been going on.

[rimmy2000] 28/11/2012 10:11

just emailed co. not expecting anything back though.

[jonnyno1] 28/11/2012 10:08

extraordinary.

[jeffian] 28/11/2012 10:04

something certainly isn't right.

[2350220] 28/11/2012 10:03

God, I thought I had my stops miles away, but just beeing taken out.
After seeing this at over £7!!!

John

[bubbleandleek] 28/11/2012 10:00

this stock is diseased. can't add more than that but it is a shocker. sub 200p by end of the week

[jeffian] 28/11/2012 00:11

If it's a "good company fundamentally" it will begin to generate cash, make profits and pay dividends. If that happens, the share price will go up whatever the shorters do. You can't short a good company in the long term. In the short term, it has just missed a profit forecast by a mile, has not demonstrated the cash coming in and has failed to answer valid questions about the way it books its revenues. The solution is in its own hands.

[k0108356] 27/11/2012 21:12

All this "the shorts have to be bought back at some point" is pretty futile. Shorter's create momentum and other shorter's who do fancy the chart/fundamentals to the downside jump on. Some would've shorted at 350, some at 300, some at 250, some at 235 and dare I say at 200 or 150? Shorter's jump on at all different price points and some of those underwater long investors may never see their entry price again. Anyway AVN broken no matter which way u look at it which is a shame really. Was a good company fundamentally & from a TA perspective most of this year.

[gnnmartin] 27/11/2012 17:07

You should be ok from now on, because I've lost courage and sold. :-o I had doubts of my own and I meant to go to the AGM to see if I could resolve those. However, I missed that, and could not fault lordshipstrading (referenced in post 11307).
Nigel Martin

[jeffian] 27/11/2012 16:55

There you are.

8-)