Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[lordy9098] 11/3/2010 09:19

Thanks Jimbo, now seems like a great chance to get in large prior to the sky rocket that will happen over the next few months, I don't see how future improved internet comms can fail!! (as long as it works, fingers and toes crossed)

[jimbo55] 11/3/2010 08:55

Hey LORDY9098. Very well done for having the guts to buy at 369p. Textbook example of buying fear. Feel free to feel very pleased with yourself. ;)

[arai] 11/3/2010 08:50

what ever it was it has certainly cheered this bb up.

A.

[matrixtrader] 11/3/2010 08:35

Avanti Communications has released a trading update highlighting three important
developments. First, a major distributor of satellite services in Eastern Europe has
committed to 320Mb of HYLAS 1. This represents about 10% of HYLAS 1 capacity and
means that management will easily exceed their internally set target of 25% pre-sales
by the time the satellite is launched. We are confident that the sale will have been
achieved within our pricing parameters of £1,200 to £1,500 per MHz per month.
Second, HYLAS 1 will be launched by Arianespace using a dedicated Soyuz rocket as
opposed to a shared Ariane 5. HYLAS 1 will now be launched using the single most
reliable launch vehicle available. Finally, Astrium UK have informed management that
HYLAS 1 will be delivered to the launch site in July 2010 and Arianespace has
confirmed that the satellite will be ready for launch in August 2010. This draws a line
under recent speculation that the launch date has slipped. This marginal delay
beyond the previous launch date of June 2010 does not impact our PBT forecast for
FY 2011 and makes no impact on the valuation or the fundamental drivers of the
business. Therefore the recent share price weakness is an excellent buying
opportunity for investors and we maintain our price target of 1358p.
Forecasts
The change in launch date from June 2010 to August 2010 has no impact upon our profit
forecast for FY 2011 or FY 2012. We have reduced the turnover forecast for FY11 from
£19.1m to £15.4m. However this is offset by a reduction in the depreciation and interest
charges for the year. As a result, the loss-before-tax forecast for FY11 remains at -£8.5m.
We have not altered our FY12 forecast as sales enquiries are currently very strong.
Valuation
The investment case for Avanti is considerably stronger following this announcement. This
significant contract win accelerate pre launch sales as other providers will be keen to ensure
they have sufficient capacity for their business needs. The provision of a firm launch date
and the provision of a dedicated Soyuz payload further reduce the risk profile of HYLAS 1.
As a result, the recent weakness of the share price is a compelling buying opportunity. We
expect further good news flow relating to contract wins shortly.

[matrixtrader] 11/3/2010 08:34

1358p target price from Cenkos released a moment ago...

[elmbury] 11/3/2010 08:29

Yeah, Also tried to pick them up first thing for 420p but could get nowhere near that price - then the MMs raised the price as so many wanted to buy. Still have plenty of these being held for the long-term so won't quibble at not being able to make a little today.

If the buying continues could see a very good day for this stock though.

[lordy9098] 11/3/2010 08:24

I think the price dropped off over the past weeks due to lack of news, this type of investment really isn't one to put into to get quick profits and therefor I expect the price to rise steadily back up to the 560 we saw after the last news release, maybe 600 as a peak.

[the count] 11/3/2010 08:21

--->ELMBURY

I had been trying to pick them up at around 400p - 420p in the pre-market and then in the auction all to no avail. It seems others have better access to MMs than spreadbetters as some trades were going through before the market opened.

I finally bit the the bullet and picked up another 5k @ 450p. :-(
....only to watch it come off straight after but my barrel was dry by then.

That was clearly over the odds now...should have stuck to a conventional broker instead.

I'm not having a good time with this stock at the moment.

[EDIT: Looking a bit better now at least.]

Regards,

THE COUNT!

[tritan] 11/3/2010 08:19

What are peoples predictions on the price today then. Will we hold current levels or is this llikely to tip again as sellers take/ took their 10% profits???

[the count] 11/3/2010 08:19

--->PORTMAN88

That was no tree shake by MMs yesterday.

That was PIs selling because they panicked. Simple supply and demand I'm afraid. And now many can't buy back below what they sold at.....not that I have too much sympathy for traders anyway.

But this clearly demonstrated the idiotic way this news was handled by the company yet again.

Regards,

THE COUNT!

[elmbury] 11/3/2010 08:16

a lot of buys before market opened - and then it looks like they were dumped 10 minutes later for a 10% profit. Some people clearly were benefitting from knowing the news that was coming.

[portman88] 11/3/2010 08:10

Very big tree shake yesterday?

[argy2] 11/3/2010 08:10

Well done the person that got 5k at 390!

[arai] 11/3/2010 08:09

Well that window of opportunity didn't last long.

A.

[tritan] 11/3/2010 08:09

How the hell does that happen?

[terryebby] 11/3/2010 02:24

If you read the release you will see they could launch on eithr Soyuz OR Ariane 5 (the latter which goes up 8 times a year) so the schedule clearly has nothing to do with the rockets and is down to the satellite manufacture in India so this Ruski blogging is a red herring

[lordy9098] 10/3/2010 23:53

if it makes you feel better i felt sick after the deal at 369 for fear that it was yet another mistake I just hope that tomorrow help to make hay while the sun shines, it did take balls though, you have to agree!!

[yorgi] 10/3/2010 22:37

Most def some very odd things happened and it does make one wonder what was known and when

[cancun tango] 10/3/2010 22:07

The Count

Good luck with your report to whoever tomorrow, not entirely sure where it'll get you, but you may have some grounds. The fact that the company mentioned in an RNS only yesterday that Q2 launch was still on is significant and clearly untrue. While they might convincingly argue that it was accidental (it appears to be the usual blurb they put into their RNSs) it may have misled some punters to buy or hold, so there might be some recourse.

[sg31] 10/3/2010 19:47

We smell burned bear fingers.

If it was a bear raid I think they would be laughing all the way to the bank not complaining about burnt fingers.

[stegrego] 10/3/2010 19:43

UK Analyst - wrong as usual:

Shares in Avanti Communications* (AVN) dived by 82p to 375p on BB chatter that there will be a delay in the launch of its first satellite.The word from those in the know is that this is cobblers and a statement to that effect plus news of material contract wins is imminent. We smell burned bear fingers.

[the count] 10/3/2010 19:04

--->HARDRIDER8

On balance, this is undoubtedly good news...in fact, it is excellent news IMHO.

But none of us can get away from the fact that it was handled incompetently and it will have caused a great deal of grief for many, and the uncertainty it caused as a result of their actions will have panicked many to sell.

Thankfully, I was not one of those, but I certainly suffered in the closing hour or so and I can assure you that I am a very experienced investor, so I wonder how many others must have felt. I almost bit the bullet and was going to go on the bid for up to another 10k of stock, but it just all looked very, very wrong so I felt there would be no harm in waiting till tomorrow or the next day to see where this correction was taking us.

I doubt any of us will be picking up stock at anywhere near the closing prices tomorrow though.

I am of course relieved that the news was not a lot worse.

Regards,

THE COUNT!

[hardrider8] 10/3/2010 18:59

Cancun

maybe it was the fact that everyone had been phoning the company to determine what the true story was and the FD finally relented to peer pressure!