Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[chrissey] 11/3/2011 16:14

volsung, I think that is the point, if the world does end in 2012, the satellites are probably going to be ok!

academic I know but everyone is looking for an angle!

[colva] 11/3/2011 14:42

A poster over on ii claims to be meeting David Williams this pm - im assuming its some sort of investor/broker/analyst meeting - he/she will report back later .

[simon gordon] 11/3/2011 14:42

GG,

Best course of action would be for AVN to do a conference call after the next result's announcement. All the analysts should be allowed to attend and ask any questions. AVN could set it up so that PIs could listen in by phone.

[greengiant] 11/3/2011 14:28

Jimbo55 - Just saying there is no point management being hacked off by misinformation if they wouldn't have been prepared to put the record straight. Glad the directors bought and I am hugely positive about the company and the management team. Just wish we would stop hearing from the Tip sheets about how hacked off management are.

gg

[argy2] 11/3/2011 14:28

That comes as no surprise.

[tsmith2] 11/3/2011 14:24

L2 going funny! manic activity - not sure at all what it means

[volsung] 11/3/2011 14:18

Excuse me but if the world is going to end in 2012 what is the point of investing in this company?

[jimbo55] 11/3/2011 14:02

Directors taking a lot of criticism today. Surely > £500,000 of share purchases at > 500p suggests they've put their money where their mouths are. All the hot air around right now makes me chuckle.

Have a great day everybody. ;)

[tsmith2] 11/3/2011 12:02

u shud thank me for creating the opp then!

[greengiant] 11/3/2011 11:19

Tsmith2, stop with the improving.... Every time you say that the share price drops. Bought anothe 10k at 463.

Gg

[estienne] 11/3/2011 10:45

One other thing - I just read Basil Loftus on iii claiming that he predicted that the share price would not do much until the satellite was commisioned and in service. Some time after Loftus had made this claim Tom Winnifirith started saying the same thing.

It makes you wonder where TW and ZM really get their ideas from.

[estienne] 11/3/2011 10:39

I'm pretty sure that Zak Mir got his 450p floor from Basil Loftus on iii

[tsmith2] 11/3/2011 10:29

FWIW - been watching L2 - steadily improving..

[restassured] 11/3/2011 10:11

The average is well over £12,with the highest two over £25.The lowest 488p.


Current share price below all of them.

Take your pick.

[tsmith2] 11/3/2011 10:09

Liberum comments

 Satellite capability vs. Telco networks. Satellite systems key competitive positioning vs. traditional telco networks, whether fixed or mobile, is ubiquity - namely geographic coverage - rather than price. That said, DW identified several areas where Ka band systems are a natural upgrade, bringing better value for money. These include cellular backhaul in emerging markets- currently served by Ku band (a lower frequency, with lower throughput for a higher price than Ka band offerings such as Avanti's). That said, DW gave the example of the agreement with BT (where we understand Avanti has to provide services that get as close as possible to those BT is able to provide under its normal Service Level Agreement, at similar pricing)
Core products
 Consumer broadband. DW believes this market alone is large enough to fill Avanti's first two satellites. He believes on average only 80% of the UK population, for instance, will be able to get a fibre broadband service.
 Enterprise networks. The partnership with Hughes, which has c. 50% of the global VSAT market (Very Small Aperture Terminals – i.e. small dishes) is a key competitive advantage, because of the high quality of Hughes modems and their existing distribution reach. DW cited Avanti's BIC product, which offers a back up service to corporates in cases where their traditional communications systems fail, as an example of where Avanti's bandwidth can be sold many times over.
 Cellular backhaul. This is not yet an established market for Avanti. That said, in emerging markets it's already an established market for Ku providers as discussed above. There is far more fixed telecoms infrastructure in developed markets, whereas in emerging markets, mobile builds have led the way rendering the need for satellites, as backhaul, greater. Avanti estimate that over 80 Ku band transponders serving Africa and see a natural upgrade path to the higher bandwidth, lower priced Ka band services. Avanti estimate that in some instances its Ka band pricing is c. 40% of that of Ku.
 Specialist Military Satellite Communications

Q & A
 Eutelsat and others as a competitive threat. Avanti believe satellite capacity is not a fungible commodity: differences in orbital position, power, configuration, interference, Gateway Earth stations, location, modems and traffic shaping all matter. That said, in terms of raw capacity, EutelSat's satellite, with 20MHz in the forward path, is c. 2c that of Avanti's (for two satellites) 9 MHz. Avanti with a higher geographic coverage and more flexibility to divert power to different parts of the satellite dependant on where demand is highest, believe they have may have more potential to use their satellite more efficiently. Avanti also believes its use of Hughes modems gives it a competitive edge vs. those using Viasat modems. In terms of others, SES's O3B is a different business model ( i.e .it needs tracking antennas) as is InmarSat's Kaband expansion. Avanti sees no evidence of pricing pressure in Europe and believes the potential demand is sufficient for both its capacity and that of Eutelsat.
 Backlog and Pipeline. £229m backlog contains a £113m option (already disclosed). Avanti has chosen to disclose its orders as an aggregate backlog rather than giving detailed annual forecasts. Only valid tenders, rather than order enquiries, make it into the (£389m) pipeline figure. Within this pipeline, there's one elephant (25% of the total); a number of £15m orders but the most numerous potential contract size is c. £1m.
 Strategic priorities. 1) The marketing launch for Hylas 1; 2) Recruiting further sales personnel for Hylas 2; 3) financing Hylas 3. On the latter, Export Credit Finance is available but it takes time, and is difficult, to obtain.
 Churn. Avanti has experienced negligible churn.
 The demand for 30 Mbps broadband services by 2020 and the ability of Avanti- and those of others – to compete. Avanti's modems can deliver up to 10 Mbps. But Avanti believes the number of end users willing to pay for 30 Mbps services will likely prove low- citing the Digital Britain Report.

[tsmith2] 11/3/2011 10:06

I think even the bearish investec had a target price of around £5.5!

[restassured] 11/3/2011 09:58

It was posted on here a week ago copied from his website.He said although the shares had fallen to the most pessimistic brokers target levels at 488p and then rebounded to 550p,he suspects the buying area to be at 450p.

So far it has played out.

[tsmith2] 11/3/2011 09:57

ra - have you got his comment? TIA

[restassured] 11/3/2011 09:52

We hit the Zak Mir buying area at 450p so will be interesting to watch.

[tsmith2] 11/3/2011 09:44

anyone with any views on the tecnical (chartists) outlook. Seem to be testing Support on the 500 dma.

We seem to be preety much where we a year ago despite the launch, contract wins, prospects for HYlas 2 & 3 and more larger contract wins in the offing!

[restassured] 11/3/2011 09:37

I suspect the phones will be ringing red hot today with enquiries.

[rkhl] 11/3/2011 09:27

Its worrying what Tom says about supporting a company with a falling share price, I remember when he recommended selling TAN when it was around 200p after a meteoric rise, the drop in its share price was brutal, eventually leading to a 99% fall in its share price, would not want to be holding these if he recommends a sell.

Just to be fair I was a silent holder here, I sold just over 700p, I have no long or short position here.

[restassured] 11/3/2011 09:24

It takes a natural disaster for people to understand the huge importance of satellite communications.
Furthermore with man made events such as terrorism or warfare,it is the only game in town.
When everything else is disrupted, it comes in to its own.

The marketplace is huge as many companies,institutions,NGO's and others will willingly pay for the security that this can provide over landlines.

TV images of the Japanese disaster today will focus minds of those that need to be able to rely on communications

[tsmith2] 11/3/2011 09:13

from the interims

Outlook

HYLAS 1 will be brought into commercial service in March, and as a result we are finding that sales opportunities with large international telecoms companies are becoming easier to generate. We therefore remain highly confident that we can fill our satellites within the three and five year ramp up targets previously discussed, and at attractive prices.


Wish they would give us an update on this..

[tsmith2] 11/3/2011 08:59

GG's your kiss of death again LOL!

I've had to sell elsewher to add here