Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[envirovision] 10/3/2011 14:03

This is one of those stocks that were you to go long, you would need to do so via a term spread bet with GT stop since can you just imagine what would happen to the share price should that Hylas 2 explode on the way up or malfunction during deployment.

[jimbo55] 10/3/2011 13:56

Agree with all that greengiant, and no criticism is intended towards SC. He's done what he does best very well.

kind of amuses me that people get so angry about this. Sure, it's never nice to see your holding decrease in value in the short term, but for those of us here for the longer term, it's a minor irritant.

[yorgi] 10/3/2011 13:55

A combination of things Greengiant and I would agree with you on :

"information will push it higher, but at the moment the market is valuing it based not on its potential of Hylas 1 & 2 but rather on H1 standalone. This will correct itself,"

[greengiant] 10/3/2011 13:50

yorgi/ Jimbo, that's an excuse. What is the free float? 85m shares in issue, around 37m which are readily available to trade. The stocks on loan didn't show a massive increase (okay large for AVN, but not all that significant). More likely, the company's share price got ahead of itself after the launch and swung too high, now it is correcting itself based on available information. In my humble opinion it has dropped a bit below the "reasonable level" and will stabilise around 520 in the coming weeks.

Like I said, information will push it higher, but at the moment the market is valuing it based not on its potential of Hylas 1 & 2 but rather on H1 standalone. This will correct itself, but fairplay to SC, he is i the money because he saw what the market was doing. Nothing wrong with that.

gg

[yorgi] 10/3/2011 13:40

I would say that's pretty much it Jimbo. It's his disciples that make his money for him. Add to that the market has not been very strong these last few days.

[jimbo55] 10/3/2011 13:37

Wouldn't say SC has called this right. Much rather, the mob have following his position and AVN is not the most liquid of stocks.

[greengiant] 10/3/2011 12:37

Love him or hate him, you have to admit that SC has called this right and that the longs here are now dependent on the company releasing its in service rns to get any kind of decent bounce. Mr Market is no longer valuing this on potential but rather looking at a more immediate picture. Unfortunate, but should correct over time.

gg

[tsmith2] 10/3/2011 09:34

expecting it to recover during the rest of the day - added

[yorgi] 10/3/2011 09:33

Yes I did as well when we were on the rise last week, we will have to be be patient a little longer it would seem.

[pojscott] 10/3/2011 09:09

Big drop this morning, thought the shorters had done and gone???

[knackers] 10/3/2011 08:05

The directors need a lesson in catching knives (don't do it!). Leave well alone until support is firmly established and shorters have cleared out. I would go along with Twister, holders should prepare themselves for further falls towards £4 - I'd then expect a new lower level/broad trading range to be established until the commercial picture is clearer. We may be talking £3.80-£5.20 range for the foreseeable. I very much doubt a return to >£6 levels this year. Patience.

[yorgi] 09/3/2011 21:26

Thank you for your vote of confidence Envirovision :-)

Perhaps you should short XEL and XTR as well :-)

[envirovision] 09/3/2011 21:11

Yorgi,

had i known this was one of your picks, i would have gone short months ago :-)

[yorgi] 09/3/2011 16:44

Was he, I didn't know that I don't tend to follow chartists but we will have to wait and see. As I say if I'm wrong I will buy a lot more at that level.

[argy2] 09/3/2011 16:39

450p was the level chartist Zak Mir was quoting I believe.

[yorgi] 09/3/2011 16:36

Because I very much doubt it will go that low Twister but I guess you are shorting so would hope that to be the case. If I'm wrong I will most definitely add big time at that level.

[yorgi] 09/3/2011 16:29

It does seem the shorters have the upper hand today so as Meljohn says time to accumulate.

[someuwin] 09/3/2011 15:55

EK today...

"Putatively, Avanti Communications (AVN) has been renamed Itnava since, instead of going forwards, it goes backwards."

[meljohn] 09/3/2011 14:37

That's right, Chrissie. AVN used to be valued by the market on the basis of its potential - a bit like an oil/gas/mining explorer. And, equally similarly, once the business is up and running there suddenly becomes a different model for valuation based on cashflow, EPS, or a host of other concrete measures, depending on the preferences of any particular analyst. At the moment AVN is that period after the initial euphoria has passed and before there is any real and tangible basis for valuation. Establishing commercila operations is only the start. But when that basis is established, we are not going to be anywhere near where we are now. But, sadly, this period of uncertainly does give the bears and the shorters an opportunity, But, nevertheless, IMHO this is a time to quietly accumulate.

[chrissey] 09/3/2011 13:48

like everyone has to accept, at this time, this stock isn't going anywhere until they announce full commercial operation, hopefully soon.

the commissioning has certainly taken some time, I hope they have some interesting things to confirm as a result of all this work.

I suspect there is some stuff that we won't ever hear about, especially if it is military/security related etc. and therefore only see the benefits on share price gain if there are further contracts to be had.

[2350220] 09/3/2011 12:04

Looks like one riviting conference to go to!
Oh shame, it looks like I'll be away doing the sound for another conference at the time :-)

John

[yorgi] 09/3/2011 11:28

Yes, interesting but for the moment I'm not quite sure what is in it for AVN or am I being slow here ?