Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[yorgi] 02/3/2011 13:04

Good points well laid out Chris.

Following up your last point the directors pretty much said it all in the RNS of 14th February and have now reinforced it with buying large numbers of shares since then.

[chris stevens] 02/3/2011 12:47

I believe shorters have taken the opportunity to short AVN due of nervous market conditions created by possible changes in Libya etc together with the fact that the price has been drifting since the satellite has been launched. I think many people did not realise that there would be 3/4 months of testing before the move to live operation and revenue flow. News should be due later this month that the satellite is working on a commercial basis.

Also, I think that I have read somewhere that DW wants to move AVN to a full market listing at some point and thought that this would we on the cards over the next few months. At that time I was expecting AVN to be trading at a higher price and that some money would be raised to progress Hylas 3 now rather than at a later date.

If shorters are taking advantage of a nervous market and shareholders are panic selling what do you want the directers to say in an RNS? I believe they are confirming that AVN is a good buy by buying.

[yorgi] 02/3/2011 12:18

Something else just to think about how many of you remember the early days of sky and BSB and the millions of £'s that went into the startup but look where the business is now.

[yorgi] 02/3/2011 12:16

Just a reminder, a link to the full article is in the header, note "prospects look outstanding"

Questor share tip: Avanti's share price fall means its a good time to buy
Avanti is an unusual company for a Questor recommendation. It is loss-making, does not pay a dividend, and its shares are very volatile. Nevertheless, the company's prospects look outstanding. Buy.

[colva] 02/3/2011 12:07

restassured

I believe that EV = mkt cap + debt

[restassured] 02/3/2011 11:51

Investec say the enterprise value is £602 million

That compares to a market cap of £418 million.

Judging by the recent M& A activity we know the comparable valuation is much higher.

Some estimates are over £25 as a result of the Echostar takeover of Hughes satellite.


Source: Investec Securities estimates
Enterprise value £602m



wonder if we will hear of the arrest of Morten Singleton sometime soon.


Certainly across the pond the SEC have started to wise up.

[yorgi] 02/3/2011 11:43

In the meantime we have to wait for the shorters to close which will happen and with further good announcements from AVN we will head north again I'm quite confident of that.

[gnnmartin] 02/3/2011 11:43

SC, good to read a bit of the Investec report at last. Thanks.
Nigel Martin

[yorgi] 02/3/2011 11:37

I have just read SC's posting with the Investec report with sell recommendation, it does not convince me.

I've read again the other buy reports and have taken the view that I'm sticking with AVN but as I don't have any funds free at the moment I can't add as I did last week but if I did I would.

I also don't think the directors would keep buying if they thought they were not making a sound investment. I admit this not always the case but I would be inclined to say is a good sign more often than not.

At the top of the Investec report they make something of 1 satellite in the sky and no commercial service. That makes complete sense to me having had the experience of installing new electronic equipment into systems in the past. There was always a period of setting up and fine tuning before the equipment was put into service so that does not surprise me. Turning it on it head, AVN already has Hylas1 in orbit which is about to enter commercial service where there is a stream of customers waiting for this new service which will enable them with fast connection to the internet that they had only previously be able to dream of.

Yes, they have competition which only goes to confirm there is a market for this service and I would be inclined to say demand probably outstrips supply.

SC's final point that he does not think the economic outlook for AVN is good, I don't agree with at all. Yes the economic outlook in general is not good at the moment that I do agree with quite obviously but having a fast and reliable connection to the internet has pretty much become almost essential today so I don't see this as being one of the first areas that people will cut back on.

My conclusion is that AVN should still prove to be a good share to be in over the next few years unless the internet is also dead !

[sg31] 02/3/2011 11:29

Last week someone posted that the number of AVN shares on loan was 1.8m. About £9m.

If that was accurate it is insignificant.It would be interesting to see an upto date figure.

[malcolmmm] 02/3/2011 11:00

If TW or any of the other funds that hold AVN thought that Investics analysis was right why would they not sell their considerable holdings and why would the directors keep buying?

[malcolmmm] 02/3/2011 10:56

Someone was saying that TW sold MML after ramping them, I did note that his fund made 447% on the share

[malcolmmm] 02/3/2011 10:54

They have dropped because of Investic's conflicting analysis and that they have spent a huge amount of money shorting them, no other fund has shorted these to my knowledge or followed suit

[omnitrix] 02/3/2011 10:53

they don't seem to have a clue

i.e. one of them thinks all the brokers being 'positive' is a good sign when it is actually a contra-indicator which suggests everything that is known to those brokers has been already discounted in the share price

like a share being overbought or overowned or overloved it ain't a good thing

[bubbleandleek] 02/3/2011 10:50

why are the retail punters 'not very bright'? pls elaborate.....

[ukinvestor220] 02/3/2011 10:49

that omni chappie seems to be getting desperate !

[omnitrix] 02/3/2011 10:47

they key thing one has learnt from the debate about AVN is that many of the retail punters who hold it are not very bright

[omnitrix] 02/3/2011 10:47

they key thing one has learnt from the debate about AVN is that many of the retail punters who hold it are not very bright

[omnitrix] 02/3/2011 10:46

key psychological level and looks like the Directors 'ammo' is spent

they can't release significant news now after they have all just 'piled in' would not look very good ?

[omnitrix] 02/3/2011 10:46

key psychological level and looks like the Directors 'ammo' is spent

they can't release significant news now after they have all just 'piled in' would not look very good ?

[dnfa1975] 02/3/2011 10:46

im initiating with a 325p target

[omnitrix] 02/3/2011 10:45

stock finding it tough to get back above 500p

[omnitrix] 02/3/2011 10:45

stock finding it tough to get back above 500p