Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[julcester] 29/11/2010 11:21

No way would Global Crossing wait. Why does AVN?

For a multitude of reasons, but all will be positive. Maybe they can now charge a premium on top of the prices they first envisaged? (because they have extended capabilities).

Your post compares apples with oranges.

[sandbank] 29/11/2010 11:13

Right or wrong, I came out this morning.

What prompted me to take profits was this statement in the RNS:- "Before we begin to put customer traffic onto the satellite in the New Year, we will be working to enhance the revenue generating potential of the satellite."

OK - it sounds reasonable - except that why would AVN, after shelling out for an enormously expensive satallite, and an enormously expensive satellite launch, tool around for a few weeks/months before getting that revenue starting to flow in?

Watched a documentary on a cable ship at the weekend laying a Global Crossing cable from Costa Rica. The pressure these guys were under to get the cable up and running on schedule was huge. No way would Global Crossing wait. Why does AVN?

[yorgi] 29/11/2010 10:56

Your quite right Deadsceptical but I believe the institutions would listen to David Williams. However at saying that it would depend first if of course and when and how much the premium was.

[ddavenport] 29/11/2010 10:56

re Deadsceptical post 1497 of 26/11/10:-

The systematic selling of 25,000 every 90 minutes by one trader is continuing. Does anyone know when this unloading will stop because the price must surely rocket once this speculative heap has gone.

Have it on good authority that a major holder hit his stoploss and his broker's instructions were to sell all. Explains the fall to 600p on Friday. He must be feeling ill now, but it provided an opportunity for others who have seen a 15% gain in one working day!

[peetle] 29/11/2010 10:49

The only way is up:

10:44 29Nov10 DJN-DJ MARKET TALK: Avanti To Rise On Satellite - Daniel Stewart
DJ MARKET TALK: Avanti To Rise On Satellite - Daniel Stewart
1044 GMT (Dow Jones) Daniel Stewart says the successful launch of Avanti
Communications Group's HYLAS 1 satellite will boost the company's share
price. Says Avanti is now a satellite based communications provider rather than a start-up. "We anticipate a consequent re-rating of Avanti's stock as a result of removal of launch risk," the broker adds. Maintains buy rating with 1111p target price. Shares +12% at 732p.
ENDS

[deadsceptical] 29/11/2010 10:48

Looking at the share holdings my point is proved. The institutions hold the power. If they see a huge profit without the future risk element nothing could stop a takeover.

[deadsceptical] 29/11/2010 10:44

Thanks for the pointer on share holdings

[sco77harris] 29/11/2010 10:42

has this been posted?

[yorgi] 29/11/2010 10:35

Although David Williams does not hold a large quantity now I'm sure major shareholders would listen to his advice.....he has shown his understanding of the potential for AVN and has delivered so far.

[sco77harris] 29/11/2010 10:34

were joint 6th on the hot stocks lists, and a clear buy with over 90% of people saying we are a buy

[smarm] 29/11/2010 10:33

yorgi - snap. We crossed. Beats me how people can write like experts and not know that the basic info they seek is on the website.

S

[smarm] 29/11/2010 10:32

deadsceptical - so you have never looked at their website then? It's all there in black and white.

S

[yorgi] 29/11/2010 10:29

Exactly Smarm :-)

Deadsceptical, If you look at the AVN website all the information about shareholders is there....You will see quite a lot are held by institutions

[deadsceptical] 29/11/2010 10:23

Does anyone know what percentage of the shares are held by the directors and relatives. There is certain to be a buyout of this share and if the move comes before say summer 2011 no one will be able to stop them getting it way below its potential price. Say someone offers £13 now there could be lots of sellers and then the predator buyers have a share worth £25 by summer 2012.

So the key point is how many shares are with the directors et al.

[smarm] 29/11/2010 10:07

yorgi - yep, sellers were lamb to the slaughter. Check out ISAT for where we could go value wise. Sad to see people selling at 700 but hey ho and all that, we don't really care, do we.

S

[smarm] 29/11/2010 10:04

uncle john - well I hope it goes very well for your wife. I have been wondering why Williams quoted £25 during his launch speech. It wasn't a slip...I think it was a buy price for the company. It won't go in a straight line but it's a service that is much needed and comes at the right time. I like the business continuity side of it too....what biz would not want to back up their internet and for a small biz this could be the answer.

S

[dolores123] 29/11/2010 09:59

O3b - $1.2bn only buys them 2 satelites although there is no denying they have the financial muscle to fund more later. But Avanti has the timing advantage and the organisation in place in the form of the distributor network and has won contracts that are ready to proceed now.

The market out there is huge and Avanti are well placed to take a big share of it over the next 2 years.

[yorgi] 29/11/2010 09:59

We are off up again......dropped to encourage a few to sell no doubt....well that's my opinion

[2vdm] 29/11/2010 09:58

mtglass. good post and one to take into account amongst all the hype. I believe in AVN but will not increase my holdings from here. As you may know from previous posts, I am cautious and have been around long enough to see how fast new technology can move. I am also a fan of the tech sector, which is where I see growth in the west over the next decade. Technology's rate of growth is increasing all the time. What once took 5 years to develop is now frequently half that and ignoring AVN for a moment, we should not be blind to other potential alternatives. Either way I think AVN will do well, but I would be wary about predicting beyond March 2012 (Hylas2) at this stage.

[yorgi] 29/11/2010 09:57

Well we have been told it is working....and I'm quite sure over the next few weeks we will have news of contracts. Patience David Williams has delivered Hylas1 is up there and working and the rest will follow.

[5070481] 29/11/2010 09:55

Would have thought that if Hylas 1 operates as planned then all resources would be better spent getting the 3 times capacity Hylas 2 up and running. Agree with SCO77HARRIS - we need operational updates and contracts now to really drive us on.

[yorgi] 29/11/2010 09:55

We have a good future independent but if someone wants to buy us then they will have to pay a very good premium to where we are now. David Williams would not be letting us go cheap !

[backmarker] 29/11/2010 09:50

cestnous,

agreed, it makes a buyout more likely as there's bound to be a large comms outfit out there who would like what we have.

whether or not o3b is a threat may depend on a number of things:

will the market be big enough for all the capacity;
will o3b be operating in the same geographic spread as us;
will they try and undercut us on price or beat us on performance;
will big customers want to spread the risk by staying with the same multi-satellite operation (of which we will be the first) or spread it across more than one company.

I think there was mention of a back-up to HYLAS-1 being ready in about 6 months if the launch failed. I wonder if there is any scope/economic mileage to complete it anyway and launch it as HYLAS-1a. now that would be an interesting plot development.

[uncle john] 29/11/2010 09:42

I hope you are right smarm, my wife bought some today in her SIPP. She wants to hold not trade.