Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[johnrxx99] 29/11/2010 03:30

Very happy with my limit buy at 580p on thursday. First bite at 618p so a nice average.

Sat up until 3am to watch only to miss the actual take off because of my poor broadband connection here in the Philippines. Oh I wish we could have Hylas 4 here, like next year.

[smarm] 28/11/2010 23:35

Jeffian - why did you buy if you cannot see an upside? Friday was a landmark day for an exciting high margin business and the top man told you himself that the share price target is £25. Why you feel a need to print all this cautionary stuff at such an exciting moment for the company is beyond me. I really despair. Just sell on Monday and go find yourself a growth stock you can bring yourself to believe in.

S

[jeffian] 28/11/2010 23:01

Having watched this for some time, I kicked myself for not getting in at the Rights Issue but eventually stuck my toe in the water at 589 to be sure of 'pre-launch'. After a pretty substantial and sustained rise over the past 18 months, I can quite understand why many would want to lock in profits 'on the news' and I would obviously be disappointed to see it fall back below that level but I'm looking for a steady and sustained rise based on revenue flows and will certainly grab a profit if it gets too far ahead of itself in post-launch euphoria.

[melody9999] 28/11/2010 19:50

Good post Jeffian - a case of keeping a balanced view here I think

[jeffian] 28/11/2010 18:55

The thing to remember when saying 'it's worth £X' is that, as with all shares, the capital value of the company and its shares is the Net Present Value of anticipated earnings and profits, adjusted for risk and timing. The Cenkos report targeting 2200p was based on not much earnings in 2010/11 (infinite PER) rising to 36p in FY2013 (PER 61x) and 112p in FY2014 (20x PER). OK, you may be thrilled to own AVN on a PER of 20, but that's over 4 years away and that 112p isn't 'in the bag' - satellites have to be launched, contracts have to be sold, delays avoided and finance may have to be raised. In other words, there are uncertainties and the question investors have to ask themselves is 'how much am I prepared to pay today for income which may (or may not!) materialise several years down the line?' A classic example is Capita (CPI) where investors got very excited about the visible forward income streams showing 50%/year growth for several years ahead. They drove the price up to a PER of over 150x so, although CPI did indeed enjoy fantastic earnings growth, the share price spiked, collapsed and then flatlined as the PER returned to more 'normal' levels, albeit on higher earnings - its share price has been in the same range for around 4 years now and is pretty much where it was 10 years ago. If we wish for too much from AVN in the short term, we are simply paying today for tomorrow's growth. Be careful what you wish for!

[buck581] 28/11/2010 18:45

We're no longer a development company. We are a satellite communications company. We can attract finance, commercial, government and military customers. We "own" a huge lump of sky which can potentially house 12 satellites. This has to be a fantastic long term investment. It's in my SIPP and it's staying there for the forseeable future. Short term fluctuations mean nothing. The people running this company are in a league of their own in my opinion. Simply having the foresight to buy the rights to this lump of sky proves their business acumen.
I'm a believer.
End of sermon.
Amen.

[engelo] 28/11/2010 18:44

shareshark: thanks. The analogy with an oil company announcing a strike is a good one.

Could anyone bring me up to date about AVN's intentions/timescale for a main board
listing? It would be nice to look forward to FTSE 250 status (even at Friday's sp) which would bring in another set of buyers.

[engelo] 28/11/2010 18:30

Togo: as a holder I hope I am too! Just noticed smarm's quote of £10 from the FT. Their timescale is 'rapidly', my target is tomorrow.

[togo2] 28/11/2010 18:20

As a holder I hope you are right.

[engelo] 28/11/2010 17:39

In this case it's not the same as, say AVN achieving very good profit figures rather than merely good ones. This is a quantum step from the drawing board into reality. Not only have we the successful launch to add to last week's values, but the success of the first launch also allows people to move on and project the impact of future launches with a greater sense of realism. Combined effect is worth 800p imo, with more to come as the contracts roll in.

[togo2] 28/11/2010 15:18

Tomorrows high 685 low 625?The old saying that it is better to travel than to arrive might be true.

[sco77harris] 28/11/2010 14:32

7 pounds plus im happy 9 pounds plus im ecstatic

[yorgi] 28/11/2010 14:09

Yes thanks Scott, I'm pretty sure, as most of us are, that we will have a good week ahead of us.

[sco77harris] 28/11/2010 12:28

this is from the ft

Avanti Communications rose 8.8 per cent to 653p ahead of the launch on Friday evening of its first satellite, Hylas 1, which will deliver broadband to European customers.

Broker Cenkos argued that Avanti currently traded at a steep discount to established satellite operators and the stock "will rapidly climb to £10" if the launch proved successful.

[share_shark] 28/11/2010 12:09

I particularly like this flexibilty as commented on this link.


It is a fairly small spacecraft but rather capable. Normally, satellites have this frequency plan fixed at the design stage and it can't be changed in orbit. On Hylas, this can be done at any moment in time from the control centre. This agility is important because it will allow Avanti to keep up with market evolution," commented Anrea Cotellessa, project manager at the European Space Agency (ESA

[share_shark] 28/11/2010 12:01

I have been wishing for years !. ;-)

[yorgi] 28/11/2010 11:40

:-) We all wish !

[malcolmmm] 28/11/2010 11:32

£10 by the end of next week, £12 by Xmas, £40+ in a years time

[yorgi] 28/11/2010 10:03

Welcome John W....all good information for interested AVN shareholders or potential shareholders.

This last week or so has seen quite and increase in interest in AVN and hence this board and of course Friday especially just prior and post launch. We have had a lot of publicity with is good for attracting new customers for AVN and new shareholders......both needing each other

Looking forward to Monday and what should be another good day for us

[bigbelter] 27/11/2010 23:22

Smarm,

you been looking at iii ??