Auction Technology Share Discussion Threads

[arf dysg] 11/5/2012 16:21

...and struck oil!

[arf dysg] 11/5/2012 16:21

Oh, look! A solid-gold meteorite has just landed on Adventis's headquarters...

[bubble pricker] 11/5/2012 13:10

Now it's just a matter of waiting for the inevitable administration announcement.

[silkstag] 10/5/2012 14:46

Tradermania, thanks for your robust feedback on Adventis management.

a) I get that in the 20 January 2012 RNS Winks/Pearson wanted to have a HOPELESS punt at raising equity. But their failure to admit they were buried under ever-increasing unsecured creditors, misled the stock market and that breaches AiM Rule 10.

b) I get that in today's RNS they wanted to bolster their negotiating position to maximise the sale price of the Tech division, in the HOPE of paying off the £1.5m to the bank, but again they are silent on the (I estimate) £4.5m unsecured creditors. Again Winks/Pearson misled the market in breach of AiM Rule 10.

c) I get that Winks/Pearson HOPE that the proportion of that £4.5m relating to Tech management, will disappear as part of the exit deal. What about the rest?

d) AiM Rule 10 makes it clear that management dont get to conceal negatives from the market, in the HOPE, everything goes perfectly so they can be managed.

e) There will be 4 parties in a pile in the Tech division 'exit deal bed'. Tech management, Trade buyer, Bank (who hired Winks/Pearson) and Adventis. Since this is a people business, worth nothing without management lock-in, Tech management will get whatever they want. They are on top of the pile. [Second2 are as have already been paid most of earnout]: 'If we are not happy, then we leave and buy the business for £100k from the Adminstrator, screw you Adventis'.

f) A trade buyer will refuse to pay out too much cash so this could easily go to the wire of Administration or beyond as they say 'we'll line up with Tech management into Administration, screw you Adventis'.

g) The bank will say 'if we dont get all our £1.5m paid in free cash we will instead grab all the group's debtors, screw you Adventis'. The bank can bypass the shareholders at any time by appointing an Administartor to implement a pre-packaged exit deal.

g) Adventis will be at the bottom of the pile, face down, bighting on the pillow. Winks/Pearson may HOPE (although probably dont care) but have NO HOPE of protecting unsecured creditors outside the Tech division as the they are not even in the 'exit deal bed', but under it. Once Tech management, buyer and bank are happy, then the deal goes through or the bank appoints an Administrator. Noone else has any leverage so cannot get paid anything.

h) The Adventis shareholders arent even in the bedroom. They are undead roaming the streets moaning. The Administrator or Liquidator will eventually notify them they are dead with the usual 'given the creditor deficit we do not see any prospect of any payout to shareholders'.

i) I am as certain as I can be that this is how Adventis will play out.
Best case: Distress trade sale of Tech division then Adventis is placed into Insolvent Liquidation.
Medium case: Insolvent Administration to implement a pre-pac Tech division sale with bank blessing.
Worst case: Insolvent Administration to cut a messy exit deal for Second2 management (with or without bChannels) and bank grabs the group debtors.

j) Only uncertainties are bank % recovery and what % loss unsecured creditors suffer.

k) Adventis shareholders are certainly already dead and have been for some time.

l) Adventis balance sheet at 31 December 2011 proves all the above, which is why Winks/Pearson didnt tell the market what it says in January, or today, and have delayed Prelims until early June. Collectively that is crooked IMHO.

[bubble pricker] 10/5/2012 14:37

"LBG has indicated that if insufficient funds were realised from a sale of the Technology division, it would take appropriate action to obtain repayment of outstanding sums, which may or may not include administration or an insolvency process."

This really says it all. A warning to all who are still holding on and hoping. When the company tells you that it is about to go bust, you better believe it. See the recent cases of DTZ and GAME (which I both shorted into administration, and ATG will be round three this year).

The obvious leaking of information about the failed fundraising and the insider trading that ensued over the past two weeks is also appalling. Why does the FSA not investigate this sort of thing.

And where is Digitalis?

[aughton 3] 10/5/2012 11:21

fwiw i got caught in something similar and nearly cost me everything

[aughton 3] 10/5/2012 10:36

respect to you silkstag

[digitalis] 10/5/2012 08:10

well back to square one pre trading statement jan.....



now valueing the tech?.....

[27howard] 10/5/2012 07:52

I added ATG to my monitor yesterday after reading this thread, count myself
lucky I did not buy some as well !

[digitalis] 09/5/2012 20:06

Glenn Carey | October 12th, 2011

The rise and rise of Second2


Second2 has secured an excellent position in the UK B2B Agency League Table. We're now in 8th place, representing solid, steady growth from 10th last year and 11th in 2009.

Our ranking puts us ahead of most other technology-focused agencies in the UK, as 30 of the 40 names on the list say they have IT/telecoms clients.

Over the past year, we've started working with a number of new companies, expanded the scope of our work for existing clients and welcomed friendly new faces to our 50-strong team.

The future looks equally exciting.








beware the false prophet.......

[silkstag] 09/5/2012 18:34

Markie7, the late results are indeed a bad sign:

a) Maybe the delay is caused by Winks/Pearson taking legal advvice about Wrongful and Fraudulent Trading: how many more creditors can they jeopardise given the risk of personal liability for their inevitable losses?

b) Winks/Pearson may be forced to abandon the glib deceit in their January RNS and instead start placing subsidiaries into liquidation, rogering some unsecured creditors (as the bank will have swept any cash out with their security).

c) They also might not feel able to pay Tech division managemnt any earnout else face possible liability for showing creditor preference. That could bring matters to a head commercially.

d) The ongoing swift share price slide back toward 0.1p is corroboration that the insiders know ATG is not a buy at any price. They are right. The remaining Tech division value (estimated £1.2m at exit after losing 50% to management lock-in) is buried under excessive liabilities (estimated £6m).

e) The above is based on my estimated ballpark £4.8-5.8m loss in 2011 (2010£5.8m). I cannot see the numbers being any less dire. They could even be worse if Winks/Pearson have covered up some other horrors, which the auditors detect and demand adjustment for. Mazars should be on 'bloodhound alert'.

f) ATG is a people business, there is just no escape from the weight of liabilities caused by such heavy losses.

g) It is the small trade creditors I feel most sorry for. Anyone who bought shares after the Winks/Pearson deceitful 20 January 2012 trading update also has a grievance.

[digitalis] 09/5/2012 16:38

£75k,s worth of stock sold since 18th April...lol....


do the maths.....small time shorter bandwagon....imho

[markie7] 08/5/2012 14:36

late results - tells you all you need to know.

[silkstag] 08/5/2012 12:29

BP, before Winks/Pearson created a false market in ATG with their deceitful 20 January 2012 trading statement in breach of AiM Rule 10, the Bid-Offer was 0.5-1p. Given the estimated £6m black hole of net liabilities at 30 April 2012, which Adventis' share of the Tech division ultimate sale proceeds will never fill, I cant think of an honest reason for the share price today to be any higher than 'priced to go bust' e.g. Bid-Offer 0.1-0.125p. Thus the share price should logically slide a further 2.7p down toward that correct level.

The share price descent toward 0.1p could be speeded up by a mix of:
1) insiders selling if they know as true my estimated ballpark £4.8-5.8m loss in 2011
2) no more punters left to be duped into buying based on Winks/Pearson deceit
3) shorters gnawing on the ATG carcass (they can still make a 97% profit margin)
4) Digitalis and other previously duped small holders sensibly bailing out
5) large shareholders bailing mainly to avoid being trapped as a declarable shareholder when ATG goes into Administration.

[bubble pricker] 07/5/2012 23:58

SS interesting analysis. We shall see when the results finally come out.

Aside from all the accounting analysis, the share price has started to fall sharply on no news. In my (completely anecdotal) experience, this is usually a sign of trouble, as bad news has leaked and people with insider knowledge are (illegally) selling.

[digitalis] 07/5/2012 17:54

From Sept last yr....


"A number of organic growth opportunities will be pursued in the months ahead. It is possible that a synergistic acquisition may be available at some stage in the future"


Mmm....an Aim listed co. secures excellent finance fascility as well....as Rolf Harris used to say "can you see what it is yet"....lol

[silkstag] 04/5/2012 15:21

Digitalis, I calculate the balance sheet at 30 April 2012 shows £6m more creditors than debtors/cash. Winks/Pearson know the number but I predict will not tell the market. It will be about £6.2m by 30 June 2012 which they must publish by 30 September 2012 or be delisted.

Under AiM rules they must publish prelims by latest 7 June and AGM approve full accounts by 30 June or be delsited. The balance sheet at 31 December 2011 will show the creditors and debtors/cash, but they chose an opaque format which does not add up net current liabilities. Instead they aggregate debtors/cash with 'goodwill' [and its carrying value is set by Winks/Pearson]. Thus one must do a 1 minute reformat to calculate the 'net liabilities excluding fixed assets' black hole.

I posted in January 2012 that the black hole at 31 January 2012 was about £5.7m (after taking account of the Adgenda business sale on 11 January 2012]. I think the accounts are supposed to factor that in, and the debtor collection outturn, as Adventis sold the business but was lumbered with its debtors (and non-trade creditors).

Everyone will be able to check my January black hole calculation was about right. Then judge me.

Winks/Pearson didnt disclose this number in their January trading statement. Instead they said "Debt levels are being managed down" - the scumbags meant 'bank debt'. 'Net liabilites are going up' was truthful and the opposite message. I have judged them already! Readers can form their own view. I think that Winks breached AiM Rule 10. There were other breaches in that January trading statement.

[digitalis] 04/5/2012 14:43

and you cannot force sellers.....do we believe management or an anonymous analyst samaritan on a bb with an agenda...Mmmm the lack of sellers says it all....