Atalaya Mining Share Discussion Threads

[jwafc] 17/11/2020 16:02

;) looking good rouge

[rougepierre] 17/11/2020 15:59

I know some of you are in SOLG...up 11% so far today...

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 17/11/2020 08:54

#Husbod, a result of being here since the beginning and having plenty of experience in disappointment in the early years.. :o)

But finally we are here, with a new and expanded plant, a first class team, a CEO with a multi mine strategy AND 3.00+ copper..

It is now time to deal with Astor and we are almost profit positioned to do so, this weeks financials will be very revealing and we can pluck the metrics to predict our Q4/FY/2021 numbers..

[husbod] 16/11/2020 23:45

Thanks again LLB. Not sure there is a more knowledgeable poster here. Keep up the good work but sadly I am unlikely to free up any cash from elsewhere to rebuild here unless and until we get some promising vibes on Touro.My decision making on stocks is notoriously erratic so hopefully for you and other LTHs I've got this wrong in the short term.All the best.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 16/11/2020 20:04

#Husbod.., dividends were ruled against in the last court visit until such time as the Astor consideration is met in full, which is fine/fair, or it will take a lot longer to deal with...

Because we can kick the can down the road for 2021 maybe into 22, it puts pressure on the other party to come to the table and look for a compromise or it could get dragged out for years with big CAPEX projects like solar farm under consideration next..

Perhaps if a compromise deal could be found on sales fees / the deferred consideration and the up tick payments then it would unlock dividends earlier, but the next hearing will clarify the situation for us if not..

[husbod] 16/11/2020 19:29

Thanks LLB. So the when it is payable could still be if we raise cash other than by a rights issue or placing? Ie as per the very precise terms of the original agreement.I'm amazed Astor haven't come to the table to discuss a compromise or maybe we simply don't see the need to make any compromise.Back to the question of dividends as raised by a poster earlier - not rouge.There will only be dividend payments imo if there is absolutely nothing else they can do with surplus funds. Namely if Touro is definitely kicked into touch by blinkered and stupid local politicians and the company cannot see any other potential resource.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 16/11/2020 19:06

#Husbod..

On 2 March 2020, the Company filed an application for directions in the High Court to seek clarity on the definition of “Excess Cash” and to determine when it is payable. The Company has served its Statement of Case to the High Court and a case management hearing is scheduled for 30 October 2020 with a trial expected in 2021.

As at 30 June 2020, no consideration has been paid. The amount of the liability recognised by the Group is €53 million. The effect of discounting remains insignificant, in line with 2019 assessment, and therefore the Group has measured the liability for the Astor deferred consideration on an undiscounted basis.

[husbod] 16/11/2020 18:59

LLB - can I trouble you to remind me of the up to date court situation - since massively reducing here I haven't really kept pace but the last I knew the Astor payment under the agreement between the parties was only triggered on us needing to raise Bank finance. The court found in our favour but offered Astor an unwarranted, in my view, softener involving this excess cash concept. I thought we had appealed against this. Have we lost that appeal and are now simply seeking a definition of this judicially invented phrase?

[saintb] 16/11/2020 18:53

rob. Yes, I noticed that after mid-day there were approximately 118000 Sells at a value in excess of £225K. They were all at a price of 190p which was 2p above the bid price. I would be surprised if they would accept such a volume if they didn`t have a buyer.

LLB. You could be right that the first payment is made in Q4 but my point was that,IMO, by applying for the clarification they have given themselves the time to delay any payment as the matter will be put in limbo until a ruling is made, thus gaining more time. We may get some clarity from the financial up-date.





,

[robmcelf2] 16/11/2020 17:15

Mainly sells today in ATYM and reasonable volume yet share price still rose which I'm taking as a positive. Could it mean another decent size buy order being filled?

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 16/11/2020 16:23

#saintb...., the advantage of kicking the deferred consideration can down the road is coming to its natural conclusion about now, as we are about to make more than EURO10M in profits, so those should in theory get paid to Astor, 1st payment could happen in Q4 as cumulative total at Q3 will tip us over.., unless the companies plan is to stall on payments until the next case ruling or swallow profits with CAPEX..

We will soon find out on Thursday morning, but 200p looks nailed on now and the chart looks strong.. :o)

[saintb] 16/11/2020 14:51

LLB. I absolutely take your point but based on your potential profit calculations the "advantage" must be coming to an end.Unless the company produce another "Rabbit from the Hat" that is.

I believe the company anticipated this and by asking the courts for clarification on the Astor cash situation, put any payment due arising from profits on hold until a judgement is made in 2021. Payment will have to be made at some time but they have "kicked the can down the road" which may put additional pressure on Astor to sit round the table (if they are not already doing so).

Only my opinion, obviously.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 16/11/2020 14:18

It is a huge positive to arrive at this point in time with a state of the art plant/facility/team with USD3.00/lb copper, 55-58KT a year copper production and totally BANK DEBT FREE, the Astor position could be considered an interest free loan as it stands, while most miners are saddled/compromised with servicing bank loans at 8/10/12% interest eroding their profits by the same amount paid..

A strategic play that has been to our advantage as I see it, but it is now time to address the issue, and try to improve on the amounts outstanding...

[waterloo01] 16/11/2020 14:12

One of the positives about Astor is it's led to very tight control on costs and effective deployment of capital. With no/low debt beyond Astor, which is rare, and gives them lots of wriggle room. Agree that if Astor came back and agreed to negotiate, they would likely be paid and the company move forward to t's next development.

[saintb] 16/11/2020 14:00

Rouge. I am with you on the Astor assessment and the reason it would "let the brakes off" IMO is the company would be able to pay dividends which would be very attractive to prospective buyers.

[saintb] 16/11/2020 13:43

Copper spot getting closer to a 5 year high. 11th June 2018 just a tad under $3.30. Looking forward to seeing what Thursday brings from a company point of view.

[qs99] 16/11/2020 13:02

ah thanks LLB< should have looked at the stats before commenting to be fair, but thanks for the summary!

[rougepierre] 16/11/2020 12:59

I agree that the Astor settlement is holding the share price back, but what can you do if Mehra declines to settle or do a deal and ATYM continues to 'run the clock' by spending as allowed on such as the two latest projects...

While a settlement would knock the share price temporarily because of the sums involved, I believe it would pretty soon 'let the brakes off...

AIMHO as usual...

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 16/11/2020 10:44

#QS99, the deferred consideration is EURO 53M, but it is not capped at that, there are uptick payments due if copper is consistently over 3.00/lb, and there is a sales fee/tax due for every DMT of concentrate sold, so 3 parts in total..

The deferred consideration can is on the balance sheet now in full, and has been kicked down the road for a few years while we built and expanded the plant, now that is done and it is year 01 of full production it is a good time to bring any negotiations to a head, and see if we can get a better deal, the current no payment due situation is great for now, or profits over and above EUR10M, but sooner or later it will need to be addressed and paid..

[qs99] 16/11/2020 09:51

Thanks LLB again. As you say, ATYM and Astor should just do a deal smartish and move on if the cap on liability is c.53m, then pony up a deal at slightly less, cash is king and get going IMO!

GLA and not sure I can see any obvious catalysts for the copper price to retreat so roll on muchos EBITDA for ATYM (and cAML sorry couldn't resist).....

DYOR

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 16/11/2020 08:48

The outstanding debt to Astor is EURO -53M, and we are almost ready to start knocking that down as we should show a greater than 10M EUR profit for the year 2020..

The clarification of the court ruling initial hearing was due October 2020, and should have happened, with the full hearing in 2021, but it is possible that ATYM/Astor do a deal sooner now we are almost in a position to start payments..

The share price has always lagged the copper price trend on the way up, but the driver is more buyers than sellers of the share, the metal price and potential profits will make us more attractive to buyers..

USD 1/lb EBITDA... :o)

[robmcelf2] 16/11/2020 08:40

So if Atym sorted out the debts to Astor do we think that's the defining factor holding us back ? Copper price as been over $3 for a while now so although a growing copper price clearly contributes to the disconnect, it's one heck of a lag if that's what's causing the pricing issue. Anyway, looking forward to Q3 results Thursday and I hope we can cross the £2 mark again this week and keep moving north of that Mark.

[qs99] 16/11/2020 08:39

Thanks LLB

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 16/11/2020 08:36

#Sithuk..., we are grinding through out losses carried forward, and have a couple of years to go before they are all used up..

Accumulated losses 2017 Group (EUR -86,527M) Company (EUR -62,417M)
Accumulated losses 2018 (-58,308) (-50,657)
Accumulated losses 2019 (-30,669) (-36,535)
Accumulated losses 2020-H1 Company(-34,449)

[erric] 16/11/2020 08:28

There always seems to be a lag between strong upward signals from copper prices and the share price which I put down to this being an unloved and un noticed company with too many skeletons in the cupboard. For we LTA’s they have long been discounted but any new investors need to investigate deeply before committing, I suggest