Atalaya Mining Share Discussion Threads

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 19/11/2020 17:57

A strange day indeed to finish up all square, but sells hoovered up, so somebody filled up their tanks.. :o)

We now know that our FY total is going to be around 55-56,000 Tonnes
Q4 EBITDA and profit will be well above Q3 as the QPs work through and we should see around USD3.00/lb realised prices for the quarter, with Q1-2021 looking very similar on current levels..

[erric] 19/11/2020 17:12

Good point VISH and one I was going to make as well, having noted that 5,000 of those “buys” was an uncrossing trade.
One of the strangest selling days ever considering the continuing good news on production, copper price, vaccines, Biden, green infrastructure spending worldwide.

However, someone was willing each time to pick up the sells without the price moving much.

[qs99] 19/11/2020 16:58

broker "strong finish" nice comment, thanks.

Should be over £2 IMO despite the Astor case etc.

[vish65] 19/11/2020 16:51

231k sells v 6k buys today and the price holds. Even better news than the RNS ! Just need to sit tight and be patient as things develop here

[sirmoori] 19/11/2020 14:10

Mining Journal, just now: "Revenue for Q3 amounted to €65.8 million (US$77.8 million), up 48% year-on-year from €44.4 million in the same period in 2019. EBITDA was up 135% year-on-year to €22.3 million, while profit rose 77% to €12.2 million.

Sam Catalano, analyst at Canaccord Genuity, hailed a "positive quarter for Atalaya, with the company once again demonstrating its consistent operating credentials".

Despite the decent operational performance, Atalaya said it expected annual production to be at the lower end of its guidance range of 55,000-58,000 tonnes of contained copper.

"Management continues to monitor the impact of COVID-19 on the operations and the ongoing cost structure and will update the market with any potential changes in expectations," Atalaya said in a statement.

Atalaya was forced to shut down production at its flagship Riotinto operation for five days in March after a lockdown in Spain.

Alexander Pearce, analyst at BMO Capital Markets, played down the guidance tweak as "nothing major".

"With an ongoing copper price tailwind, we continue to expect a strong finish to 2020," Pearce said."

[saintb] 19/11/2020 13:30

Another good set of figures with more to come in subsequent quarters. I am sure most of us are impressed with the way Alberto is running the company but I am not optimistic about the share price during 2021.

My reasons are:

The timeline given for the Astor judicial clarification confirms my belief that no payment will be made during the legal process (Post 14784)and we now know that the earliest it could be is after June 2021 and perhaps as late as after February 2022.Unfortunately,investors are not responding favourably to this as I believe they want to see the matter finalised.

The Touro situation is dragging on too long. We know there are people doing their best to prevent it going ahead but all this time to send the official rejection? The COVID suggestion by the authorities is nonsense IMO. As much as I would like to see it get solved and the project started, political (or financial)forces are at work here.

I think the copper price will weaken during 2021. We have enjoyed a higher price lately due to some of the worlds larger miners experiencing production problems because of COVID. Chile is the biggest example. They will come back on stream during 2021 thus improving the supply side of the equation. Although this could be off-set by demand, I do not see the world-wide upturn that is needed taking place for quite some time as the growth momentum will be slow after the effect of the pandemic.

I have been invested in EMED/ATYM for over ten years and so, like others here, can not be accused of lacking patience. Will I be asked to put my hand in my pocket to help finance the new schemes, perhaps? Look at the broker forecasts- not exactly confidence building.

I intend to give matters until the end of Q2 2021 to re-assess before deciding to whether to invest my hard earned money elsewhere. In the meantime, I shall hibernate.

Only my modest opinion, obviously.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 19/11/2020 13:24

#Sithuk... the pilot project plant has already been built and running for most of the year, leach rates of up to 250 kilograms per hour have been achieved processing copper concentrates, the FS is to scale up to a 10,000 Tonne a year copper production facility..

So our existing plant has to produce the concentrate and it is a substitute to refining, as such payable copper (or in this case recovery rate) needs to be equal to or better than 95.5% to match the refining process efficiency but the FS is taking everything into account on operating costs, CAPEX and break even duration by saving the refining costs..

Higher commodity prices could increase mineral reserves through both lower cutoff grades and potentially larger pit limits. An LG analysis indicates that a 15% increase in Cu price, from $2.60/lb to $3.00/lb could increase mineral reserve tonnages above an internal cutoff by 21%.

[sithuk] 19/11/2020 12:39

How much of a game changer is the new processing technology that ATYM is going to build a demonstration plant for? By how much does it allow ATYM to expand its reserves by making previously uneconomic reserves mineable?

[estienne] 19/11/2020 10:51

With Copper prices up to 3.20/lb and no bad news this should recover but I expect investors are hesitant due to Covid

[mip55] 19/11/2020 09:31

I wonder if Alberto is thinking of spending some of our surplus cash on achieving Copper Mark accreditation?The Members of the International Copper Association (ICA) are proud to introduce the Copper Mark-a new assurance system for responsible copper production. https://coppermark.org/the-copper-mark-ensuring-responsible-production/Might help in the Project Tuoro environmental fight.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 19/11/2020 09:17

#Spooky, COBAS are a fund recently noticed/reported here as having reduced by c500K on Morning Star, but their asset managers have several funds so they could be simply moving shares from 1 to another, it is a minefield to try and keep track of unfortunately with II holdings, but no TR1s have been printed recently..

With Q4 having the potential to almost double the Q3 figures the investment case looks pretty robust, but I do not make recommendations, just observations so as always please DYOR.. :o)

[spooky] 19/11/2020 09:04

Thanks LLB. I am pretty familiar with how the markets work particularly on days with RNSs. The persistent selling started before todays announcement so i thought it might be worth asking the question to see if anyone could come up with anything other than the usual excuse of profit taking.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 19/11/2020 08:55

#Spooky..., some holders sell the news regardless of whether it is good, bad or indifferent.., it happens, but there is nothing wrong with our Q3 results..

EURO 22M EBITDA and 12M profit at a 0.43/lb margin meaning Q4 could be double those figures again.. :o)

It is pretty rare to see a MM that would take 50,000 shares in 1 lot, but I see that has just been printed, so there is a buyer who took those..!

[spooky] 19/11/2020 08:29

I see the selling continues. I know the shares have always traded strangely but its not immediately obvious to me why anyone would be selling this morning unless you had recently changed your view on the future price of copper. I am inclined to add to my position but the selling is putting me off. Does anyone have a view on why someone would be selling here?

[qs99] 19/11/2020 08:05

Cracking set up results IMO...Just need these muppets on the T project to pull their finger out and engage with ATYM!

[erric] 19/11/2020 07:49

I didn’t realise it was just the RNS but here’s the link anyway

[mip55] 19/11/2020 07:32

Erric..... link works fine for me. Anyone else ?

[erric] 19/11/2020 07:30

Mip55, please change the leading h to CAPITAL H so that it works

[waterloo01] 19/11/2020 07:21

Excellent numbers as usual.

[mip55] 19/11/2020 07:06

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/ATYM/q3-2020-financial-results/14761340

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 17/11/2020 19:07

2020 so far:

Q1 13,229 produced / 12,629 payable / margin 0.31/lb / EBITDA EUR 9.274M / profit 2.93M
Q2 13,635 produced / 13,025 payable / margin 0.29/lb / EBITDA EUR 12.83M / profit 3.03M
Q3 14,695 produced / tbc payable / est 0.57/lb / EBITDA tbc M / profit tbc M
Q4 15,000 produced / tbc payable / est 0.85/lb / EBITDA tbc M / profit tbc M

Filling in the Q3 est/tbc gaps soon.. :o)

[jwafc] 17/11/2020 17:57

rp, was looking to add last week, waiting for the gap to fill - seemed determined to fill at some point - but took 31.5p in the end. Will continue to build my position.

ATYM really (really) should be higher - needs more volume I guess but there's no rainbows to chase here. A move to ftse 350 would perhaps be the best way to a re-rate - not sure how feasible that is.

Without any cap. appreciation or yield it's a frustrating hold. They've come SO FAR since the EMED days yet the mcap continues to languish despite a great team and consistent results.

[rougepierre] 17/11/2020 16:57

Gapped up this morning and closed very strong with MMs buying in stock up to 39p...

Anyhow, that's all folks...looking good here also...

[jwafc] 17/11/2020 16:02

;) looking good rouge

[rougepierre] 17/11/2020 15:59

I know some of you are in SOLG...up 11% so far today...