Atalaya Mining Share Discussion Threads

[gcpinc] 16/10/2018 10:19

rouge

I suspect you will be taking some profits and with them hoping to take advantage of any pull back here.

[gcpinc] 16/10/2018 10:01

Rouge

Well done mate, I see you have struck gold again or is it copper !

[husbod] 16/10/2018 09:43

Can't fault that strategy

[brockwl2] 16/10/2018 09:36

The trouble I have with Rouges guess, with what might be happening, is that the articles of the company stop investors going above 20% ownership without express board or shareholder approval. So as it stands the 3 key players cannot increase their stake. That's my understanding anyway, and is there, specifically to stop an unwelcome/hostile takeover.

Very difficult to work out what is going on here currently. Some suspect that Traf want to take the lot, and at least one report I read suggested Traf may want out, as they need to realise some non core assets, to offset a poor year.

If Traf want out, and we are effectively up for sale, I just don't see anyone currently prepared to pay what would satisfy the other key investors. Especially Orion who need 420+ to break even.
Hence if that is what's going on I see this all coming to nothing, and the price going back to where it came from.

If Traf want in, then clearly this will go for a fair bit more than where we are currently.

I may be wrong but I suspect someone wanting "out" is the more likely of the 2 options.
As a result I've sold the 15% I bought back, just before and on announcement of the strategic review.

If I'm wrong I'll still benefit from any takeover with the 85% I've held. I'll be more than happy with that. If I'm right then I'll buy back the 15% sold, and make a small profit from the trade.
Basically a hedge, given no one has a clue what is happening.

Lee

[rich1e] 16/10/2018 05:58

No doubt we are undervalued, as was suggested yesterday we could be worth a lot more in future years, no doubt, and it doesn’t make sense for the majors to consider selling. But unfortunately its not up to us, and we are where we are, with the company reviewing its strategic options. What will that lead to, who knows. Either way with three attempts at the 260p mark under our belt I think that it’s fair to suggest that there should be some serious pressure built up behind it, not surprising considering the buying at that level. Maybe today well break it. Have a good day all.

[husbod] 15/10/2018 22:17

Being held back by uncertainty over Astor and Touro?

[husbod] 15/10/2018 22:14

Thanks LLB. If that's correct it certainly confirms we are undervalued . Seriously undervalued perhaps.

[iankn73] 15/10/2018 20:41

Still alive rouge -:) Nothing much to say. I leave the talking to you seasoned vets :-) I have been popping in from time to time. Im still holding and happy with the current speculation regarding bid. I just hope we see fair value if a bid is made that is.

Im still bullish on copper and still holding a shed load of KCC although the share price has been disapointing to say the least. Im confident that this will pay off long term.

Im still big on crypto and have made some serious cash even with the crypto downturn.

My attention has been focused on my horse racing as I back and lay UK and Irish racing on a day to day basis as I have access to a database of all uk and irish racing going back 10+ years and its proving to be a gold mine. :-)

Good luck all holders.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 15/10/2018 20:35

#Husbod, I've only got 1 too..., but H1 EPS was 18c, so 36c or 32p for the year, puts us on a current PE of around 8.., or too cheap at today's price...!

[husbod] 15/10/2018 19:38

Anyone with at least 2 brain cells, compared to my 1, care to give us the company's current P/E ratio?

[riotinted_specs] 15/10/2018 19:12

Hi Langostino, I respectfully beg to differ. I too came in at about 8p in 2014. Copper took a hit and so did the price. I've never traded this stock but have downsize averaged on multiple occasions and am at healthy profit level. ATALAYA remains very undervalued and as a successful working mine will have its correction soon.

[rougepierre] 15/10/2018 19:01

You're kidding right....?

[langostino] 15/10/2018 18:31

I bought my first Emed shares in 2010 for 9p. I bought some last week for a fraction less. Ergo there has been no increase in shareholder value during one of the greatest bull markets of recent times. In 2010 the company was run by a bunch of clueless Australians who every one with a functional brain cell knew would never get the permits, but they did serve as bait to draw in Trafigura to put together a working package. Now it is a functional profitable mine yet the share price remains the same. That is not to say that some investors have not traded gains, and some like rp have managed with uncanny skill to finesse every trough and peak to make a fortune. But the point remains that the share price has gone nowhere and my opinion remains that only corporate action will budge it. Unfortunately the danger still exists that we will be thwarted for a second time by Trafigura whose plans never seem to benefit any one but themselves.

[rich1e] 15/10/2018 18:20

You seem a little nervous rouge, did you try buying back in this morning only to get offered six shares the same as me?

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 15/10/2018 18:08

The Bats are a bit quiet...? of course Touro has been rejected, we lost our AAU, the company is up for sale as it's unprofitable etc etc... :o) lol...

[rich1e] 15/10/2018 17:55

Are you getting edgy rouge? lol

[rougepierre] 15/10/2018 17:39

So what are those 'noises'?

Not "looking for a buyer" but

Reviewing its "strategic options"

Furthermore, the Company presentation published as recent as 5 October reads completely as "Business as usual" without the slightest hint of looking at "strategic options"; and....

hxxp://atalayamining.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/October-2018-marketing-presentation-final.FINAL_.pdf

The share price mid price in Canada hasn't budged from $4.25 (£2.49) since 2 October and there were just over 1,000 shares bought on Thursday and just over 2,000 on Friday...

4300 shares have changed hands today at prices between $3.99 (£2.34) and $4.25 (£2.49)...

So given the story originated in Canada, it doesn't seem to have much legs...

GLA

[rich1e] 15/10/2018 17:14

Best to focus on the ‘noises’ coming from the company or should that be the direction of the company. One thing I would believe to be fact is that someone had no trouble buying 125k lots in the last few weeks and yet this morning I could only get a quote for six shares, no wonder it didn’t smash through resistance today. Make of it what you will.

[waterloo01] 15/10/2018 16:38

Indeed it is. Makes a lot of sense.

[husbod] 15/10/2018 16:35

Good analysis rouge

[rougepierre] 15/10/2018 16:19

You are joking, surely lango...

Apart from the fact that some of us are already well up, I confidently predict that, kept independent, this share price will reach £10 within 5 years of Riotinto and Toure being fully commercialised.

In the meantime, burgeoning cashflows will be available for:

CAPEX in the above;

Dividends; and

Related acquisitions in copper/zinc/nickel (and who knows, maybe even uranium (BKY)), on the Spanish mainland...

Trafigura bought its initial 18%plus for 270p...XGC paid 270p...Orion paid 422p...so why on earth would they consider selling even at Canaccord's 315p...

Liberty Metals & Mining bought their stake on issue at 142.5p, so maybe they want to realise their profit, depending on the strategic aims of their metals and minerals fund

For example, in March of this year, Liberty disposed of their stake in Alderon iron ore "for investment reasons"

hxxps://globenewswire.com/news-release/2018/03/23/1449635/0/en/Liberty-Metals-Mining-Holdings-LLC-Disposes-of-Shares-of-Alderon-Iron-Ore-Corp.html

Now, given that any of the cornerstone investors needs the permission of the others to sell their stake, the equitable way would be to ask BMO Capital Markets to determine a fair price, at which the shares could be sold to another investor or placed in the market, or indeed sold to any or all of the other cornerstone investors.

If any of the other three acquired the whole of Liberty's stake, it would take them over 30% and they would have to make an offer for the rest of the shares:

"When a person or group acquires interests in shares carrying 30% or more of the voting rights of a company, they must make a cash offer to all other shareholders at the highest price paid in the 12 months before the offer was announced"

But the other three (and indeed Majedie or even another 'strategic' investor, e.g. one based in Canada) could acquire the Liberty stake between them at levels that did not breach the 30%.

In which case they would need an objective third party to determine a fair price.

So, in conclusion and keeping in mind the apparent "public knowledge" that Orion would like to sell their stake, together with the possibility that Liberty Metals & Minerals may want to move on, BMO may have been asked what is a fair price, but also the scale of either disposal would make it common sense for Atalya to consider all their 'strategic options':

Especially as they approach the financial consequences of the Astor ruling and the need to raise additional Capex for Toure.

Which also means that this would NOT be the best time for a takeover bid, with these uncertainties around and...

Depending on what the seller ultimately did with their stake, Atalya might then find it necessary to use BMO Capital Markets' 'white knight' experience to defend against a bid.

AIMHO as usual...

[husbod] 15/10/2018 15:56

Lango - disagree. I've made money and so have loads of other people who were fortunate enough not to have bought at peak old money.I fully expect to make more even if we don't get taken out. But then you've been anti ATYM for a very long time.

[ruvic] 15/10/2018 15:11

langostino agree!