Atalaya Mining Share Discussion Threads

[husbod] 12/11/2018 20:24

Agreed LLB. As usual with this share the next 6 months are going to be very interesting and assuming all goes well with the substitute permitting for PRT and the consents are granted for Touro all will be looking rosy in the garden.On the other hand we could have the fascinating chaos of a no deal Brexit or parliament voting down whatever Chamberlain like agreement May puts before it and then all bets are off.FWIW if Brexit collapses and the lorries queue from Calais to the German border and the Italians continue with their Alice in Wonderland economics we might see the Eu collapse before the UK.Never a dull moment!

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 12/11/2018 19:40

#Husbod, the company is doing just fine as Onions says, and into Q4 we are mopping up on the 1:0.88 USD/EURO too..

Q3 financials next week or 2 and we can see how profitable we are with a softer Copper price, but with 11,055 Tonnes of Copper produced now the secondary cone crusher is fully operational.

Recovery rates are steadily increasing as the plant is fine tuned and now 88.40% with with 24.8% Copper in concentrate too..

I can't see an share price driver coming until we hear some news on Orion, Astor and Touro funding, if this does result in equity, buyers will wait until then..

[husbod] 12/11/2018 18:05

Big drop for such a small volume of trades so maybe there is a big seller around Mr O.

[mronions] 12/11/2018 15:38

Clearly there is a seller and not much of a bid . So let the seller get done: in this market he they will have to take it lower and it will bounce from there.

Results will continue to show that we are doing just fine.

So nothing to worry about IMO

[rich1e] 12/11/2018 06:24

We are still frequently getting trades flagged LRGS which takes up a bit of the slack, this indicates large in scale deferred. It may be a large order being worked in a way that mops up sells and most importantly for the market makers doesn’t put them in a negative stock position, owing 100ks of stock, should trading come to an abrupt halt. After all they like the rest of us, despite having a clearer idea of the demand for stock, don’t know how this will pan out, and having had warning will want to exercise caution. Just a thought.

Now to wait for vanhelsing to come back telling us the Aussies have pulled out because of serious concerns. Have good day all.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 10/11/2018 12:41

#Onions, Astor might have a case against their lawyers for negligence/incompetence..., BUT at the end of the day the Astor BOD signed off, so they didn’t do their own DD or fully grasp the full implications of what they were signing.., call it an 'oversight'..!

Similar to when signing off on company accounts the responsibility ends with the signatory not the accountant...

Interesting times as it develops, Orion exit, a new II comes in, Astor exit and the company takes shape and prepares for Touro..

Copper softening, but we are making the most of the 0.88:1 USD:EUR on sales in Q4.

[rich1e] 10/11/2018 08:42

A hypothetical question, If the mm’s want to keep a flat book (impossible), they sell 100 shares on Monday at close leaving them minus 100 shares, a takeover comes first thing Tuesday, at say 300p. There is no more trading (unlikely). The buyer effectively buys 100 shares that don’t exist, who carries the cost?

[rougepierre] 09/11/2018 13:28

OOPS! Corrected the typos made by spellchecker...sorry!

[husbod] 09/11/2018 10:27

Mr OI think you have to have leave to appeal to the Supreme Court and I would have thought that the possibility of obtaining leave even if Astor were inclined to appeal is zero. This is not a case that involves a matter of judicial importance rather the interpretation of a commercial contract where imho the decision is and always was bleeding obvious.

[mronions] 09/11/2018 09:39

Orion , who are big , may have grown frustrated with funding ATALAYA with equity : they like to use debt finance . Their exit may be a hint that debt finance not coming soon.

[mronions] 09/11/2018 09:33

I was spot on the Astor case : "no change most likely outcome".
- I guess we are waiting if there is further Astor appeal
- think Astor have a couple of weeks, but not sure to take to Supreme Court . We be good to get past this final uncertainty.

Would hope Astor now look to negotiate , if there is any relationship left

Going to Supreme court will be very expensive & they are likely to keep current rolling in place fir the flawed master contract.

Does Astor now seek damages against its lawyers for the poor contract ?

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 09/11/2018 09:29

It's most likely to be Orion looking to sell their shares isn't it, they've been working their way to the door for a while..?

May 17 - Orion 14.6% - with off take
June 17 - 14.6% - with off take
March 18 - 13.9% - no off take
October 18 - 13.7% - no off take

Given you just can not buy 18.75M shares on the open market, the current share price isn't much of a guide, it's what someone is prepared to pay and Orion won't be selling for a loss will they.., anyone know what their average cost/share is...?

[mronions] 09/11/2018 09:27

Just looked at the copper project Black Bute (they could do with our Alberto .... ) . I guess they are investors, with cash. Not sure what benefit they would bring to us , unless we are looking for more cash via equity issue . they buy out Orion and at some point we issue stock to fund Turro . However, surely Turo could go debt route and not trigger Astor payment (if done separate legal entity). The equity route is too easy.

Sandfire cash , is it not earmarked for Black Butte ?

[rougepierre] 09/11/2018 09:15

Copper price weak investors don't like uncertainty...watch out below...

AIMHO as usual...

[rougepierre] 09/11/2018 09:14

You're joking surely Mr O...have you actually read their accounts? Making money...over$200 million in cash...

Meanwhile I repeat..if ATYM was being taken over they would have to have said " we have received an approach which may lead to a bid..."

I repeat...the most likely scenario is that they are looking at options to fund the Capex and Astor going forward and one of the major holders wants out...so BMO have been asked to report on all the options and in the process have found a willing buyer for the stake...and maybe more

The only other OZ miner that fits vans criteria is Galaxy but they have no copper interests...Sandfire is predominantly copper including very rich 3.3g per tonne...

[mronions] 09/11/2018 09:02

Sandfire ? Have you seen the mugshot of its directors front page ?

Do these guys even have a working project ?

Think we are more likely to buy them !

Black Butte copper is still a field ... cattle grazing the only economic activity

Has to be other Ozzie miners

[rich1e] 09/11/2018 06:07

Eric makes a point that usually you would expect to see some share price movement ahead of a takeover. A valid point, but maybe we’ve already seen it with the swift move from 200 to 260 culminating with someone continuing to buy maybe a half a million shares at the top with little regard for the Astor ruling, Touro permitting, Touro funding, AAU, copper price. Not the actions of someone cautiously managing other peoples money, or indeed looking for an ideal entry point, more like someone paying the price required to get the position they want. We may well wake up one day pleasantly surprised to find a couple of quid on the share price. Monday would be good for me ;-)

Good weekend all.

[rich1e] 09/11/2018 05:56

The company informed us of the strategic review in response to press reports, its anyone’s guess why they didn’t think that they had need to tell us before, unless of course there is more to it than a strategic review as was reported. Then you have unconfirmed bulletin board speculation, which they cant be responsible for, but you would hope that they would act on their “The Company will update the market if appropriate” if significant moves were happing behind the scenes.

[mronions] 08/11/2018 19:26

Ok cool husbod .
I hope we don’t get bought .

So RP could be correct . One of our shareholders looking to exit . Orion has already sold off take (Orion must be ruined)

One of the things that could be considered is that we (Atalaya) May buy the stake : would this be treasury shares or would they cancel the shares . This would be a an indirect way to return funds to shareholders and bypass Astor ?

[rich1e] 08/11/2018 18:54

I think that the major shareholders are looking to exit as per the press reports that they didn’t dismiss. As for vanhelsings Aussies, it fits my thinking but maybe someone doing due diligence should be RNS’d? And he’s just as likely to come back tomorrow to tell us they pulled out due to a major issue.
Traf is favourite to take over the lot with me, but they’ll probably have some competition. I don’t think we’ve long to wait.

[waterloo01] 08/11/2018 17:40

FWIW I also suspect this is about Orion finding a buyer. I also hope they have started negotiations with Astor and get senior debt in to settle both this and 1st phases of Touro.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 08/11/2018 17:28

Interesting view #RP, I'm waiting for the Q3 financials, FY18 even more so.
But we made +EURO 24.5M for the 6 months to 30.06.2018, with +EURO51M in the cash..

H2's profits will go on the PRT upgrade to 15.0MTPA, and should cover most of the balance..

IF we continue to crank out EURO 50M a year profits in 2019 that covers Astor in full.
2020/21/22 at the expanded plant output will easily cover the USD165M Touro CAPEX but we might need a 50M debt facility for the big CAPEX in 2020 to get started with..

I'm clinging onto the hope that we will not need to resort to equity, but please comment why if you see it differently..?

[edit] if the bats are positive for a change you can bet they are trying to sell into it...!

[husbod] 08/11/2018 17:23

Btw the fact that the share price hasn't moved today despite some decent buys reminds me of various posters on various sites who would suggest that this means the mms are suppressing a price rise to enable someone to build up a stake.This is not a theory to which I subscribe but I thought I'd throw it into the verbal arena.