Atalaya Mining Share Discussion Threads

[rougepierre] 20/8/2018 11:43

I've been doing some calculations...

On the basis of the Q2 Production Report, Cash Costs and AISC, plus a an average Euro/Dollar rate of 0.82, I estimate:

Q2 EBITDA of 16.2 million Euros (cf Q1 15 million) and PAT of 8 million Euros (Q1 8.8m)

On projected production of 10m tonnes; estimated realised cost of $2.75; projected cash costs of 2.25 and AISC of 2.55 (per company projections of 215/230 and 250/260); E/$ .87

Q3 EBITDA of 9.8 million Euros; PAT of 3.0 million

Of course, copper could rebound sharply, but at present Q2 financials should be better than Q1, but Q3 significantly worse...

Lest hope the Astor judgement comes out before the Q2 figures and not the Q3 figures...

AIMHO as usual....

[rougepierre] 17/8/2018 14:27

oops! yellow card...

[husbod] 16/8/2018 18:37

China sending a trade delegation to the States and I bet a lot is also happening behind the scenes. If something is sorted that allows both countries to claim victory, and that would make a huge amount of sense, then we could see a big bounce in the Cu price.Not sure why the Appeal decision is taking so long unless the judges are all on holiday. It's probably not a priority compared to the case on whether a transgender driver is entitled to drive on the wrong side of the road.

[cflather2000] 16/8/2018 13:46

Kaz is so highly leveraged, even before their new venture finance is sorted. i'll look at them once they have that under control

[waterloo01] 16/8/2018 13:13

Yes the case may mean they actually have to stump up the EUR53m (which is already in the accounts) and possibly the uptick payment of up to EUR15m(which is looking less assured as copper sits below the $3.00 trigger) but that's far from certain until we get a ruling. The original ruling made it clear the uptick would never apply and also that while the debt remained on the books there was no clear trigger for paying it. It would be a considerable change for this to alter drastically on the appeal (to which I attended most of so have a view on how the judges perceive it).

Regardless, if they need to get bank debt, it will be available and unlike the vast majority of miners ATYM currently has no debt, into a rising interest environment.

Edit: KAZ reporting this AM and while they are certainly a lower cost miner, the half year turnover was over $1bn and bank debt stood at $3.7bn

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 16/8/2018 12:41

Support/Resistance and traditional trading pattern rules won't IMO matter 1 jot on an unfavourable ruling from the court and a demand for payment.. and that is my biggest concern right now, along with the possibility of a negotiated settlement but either way it will involve large sums of cash that we don't have available, and we are not generating in Q3/4..

We do have well heeled backers and loans will be available I've no doubt of that, but at an interest rate price and that would go on top of our AISC which is currently around break even on payable Copper..

This is a very well run company and the BOD have done a fantastic job, but it isn't a straight Copper play yet until we know the ruling outcome.., the timing of which, as above will be hugely influential under the current SP/Copper price circumstances..

[rougepierre] 16/8/2018 10:21

I wouldn't disagree on 185 I'm afraid...but it could go to 170/175 were there is strong support...

Right now the copper price is driving it, but the big worry is that the Astor judgement is overdue and the timing is totally out of our control...

Now would not be a good time...

Happy with my 205 for the long term...one day these will be £10 plus...

AIMHO as usual...

[shortarm] 16/8/2018 08:50

What price do you think these will get down to Rouge? I'm looking 185?

[ruvic] 16/8/2018 01:05

Now might be the time for that VIX trade to at least edge this gem

[husbod] 15/8/2018 18:41

Well done rouge Anto's ceo has stated that cu outlook is bright with demand growing 2-3% pa and supply is constrained. Grades are coming down and tonnage is coming down. There are few new discoveries. We know all this but nevertheless it's good to hear the ceo of one of the biggest copper mining companies state it.

[rougepierre] 15/8/2018 11:02

See above...

[shortarm] 15/8/2018 10:57

How many shares RP?

[rougepierre] 15/8/2018 10:09

Bought back half mine and the wife's previous holdings at 205 plus while I could get the size...

2x7500 and 1x5000

Expect to buy the rest lower...

GLA

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 15/8/2018 08:04

#waterloo01, the way I see it, the overall money due to Astor including the brokerage fees over time, royalty, uptick and deferred payment could be rolled up together if the company is to attempt to get shot of Astor in 1 go, (which they need to do) and this is our 1 time opportunity to do so, but to try and lower the number due, we will need to bring forward the time frame, Astor are not just going to roll over and agree to getting less without an incentive to do so...? and in this period of lower profits for Q3/4 we are not spinning off enough cash to make much of an offer without borrowing..

The company have done a fantastic job, and continue to do so, but we can't ignore the price of Copper and its impact on our plans... we have a plant extension to pay for which will need EURO40M and going from EURO10M per quarter profit to break even against guided AISC will have to result in some adjustments to our planning..

We await the judgement, which we may or may not be able to use as leverage...

[waterloo01] 14/8/2018 23:52

The uptick payment will be decided on by the court but regardless it and the ongoing brokerage fees are not upfront costs but based on production over time. Really as an ex holder it's very poor form to be so selective.

[spcecks] 14/8/2018 23:08

LLB Have you sold all your shares.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 14/8/2018 21:55

#waterloo01, our total consideration due to Astor, including the deferred payment, the uptick payment, royalty, and the DMT brokerage fee for the old 43-101 is around EURO100M...

This might get negotiated down, we don’t know, but they will want paying and we are not going to make any dents in that running at or around break even on a 2.50-2.60/lb AISC on 2.65/lb payable Copper...

We’ve also got to fund 50% of the 15.0MTPA extension from cash earned...? unless that is borrowed..?

To make any headway into that we have got to be selling with consistent USD3.00/lb+ payable Copper.. and for Q3/4 this year I just don't see where the profit is coming from..?

Over time, 1 or 2 years from now the supply/deficit will bite in harder and drive prices, but near term I don't see what is there to support the share price .?

[waterloo01] 14/8/2018 20:05

The Astor debt is EUR53m as it stands and apart from some working loans that's it. Where do you get EUR 100m?

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 14/8/2018 19:35

#gcpinc, I can see the share price going well below that level because the companies profitability has changed so much now.., and with a EUR100M repayment owed + judgement pending..

I will be very interested to see if traditional trading patterns and support levels apply during this phase or not..

[gcpinc] 14/8/2018 16:08

Watch this bounce off the 200ma at approx £2.10 !

[gcpinc] 14/8/2018 16:01

Looking at the trades (sells) at £2.12 either side of 14:59:33, I imagine it was a buy. !

[waterloo01] 14/8/2018 15:44

Not appeared on my screen so depends what time the trade was. Copper getting hammered under $2.70 doesn't help.

[scargs] 14/8/2018 15:19

Please could one or more of my learned ATYM colleagues confirm whether this afternoon's reported 100,000 share transaction @ £2.15 a share was a BUY or a SALE?

Thank you in anticipation.

Scargs