Atalaya Mining Share Discussion Threads

[waterloo01] 25/7/2018 17:45

Good to see $2.75 hold firm. Regardless of the short/medium term effect on growth of trade wars, the copper story continues with under-investment, declining grades, lack of decent prospects on the supply side and an uninterrupted demand side upside both through the EV drive but also continuing urbanisation.

I'm hoping/expecting that copper will be a relative safe port in any coming trade/growth/debt storm.

[cflather2000] 24/7/2018 23:35

Going to correct myself here. I have no idea which will be more significant!

[cflather2000] 24/7/2018 21:34

The trade war matters far less than the stimulus package, I reckon. Demand for base metals depends on growth, and especially Chinese growth. Apparently part of the package is a special bond to encourage local infrastructure projects

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 24/7/2018 17:34

Yup, Copper on the rebound, shorts closing, and ATYM static.. which is fine as it didn't get dragged down much with it too.. illiquid stocks have a mind of their own don't they.. :o)

Some new appeal verdicts released in July, but not ours yet..

[cflather2000] 24/7/2018 15:10

All major miners up a lot today. No change for atalaya. This stock always seems to react a couple of days later

[cflather2000] 24/7/2018 12:56

Not sure I want the result just now. I think I'd rather the copper price recovered first

[come on] 24/7/2018 12:23

When will the Astor result come, I can't believe it's taken this long already

[mronions] 23/7/2018 09:23

copper move down too fast , all derivative and future driven . should go back to $3 and bounce along there. Price can't stay below marginal cost of production for long.

[mds2028] 23/7/2018 04:11

I hope your right Husbod, but as I get older I'm becoming more cynical of any one in power doing the "right thing". However he will be English or should I say British while I can, as I suspect in my life time not just the Scots will decide to leave the tax subsidised relationship with England, let's just hope our bureaucrats will have learnt from the EU how to play a strong hand.

To early to call the copper reversal?

[mds2028] 23/7/2018 04:11

I hope your right Husbod, but as I get older I'm becoming more cynical of any one in power doing the "right thing". However he will be English or should I say British while I can, as I suspect in my life time not just the Scots will decide to leave the tax subsidised relationship with England, let's just hope our bureaucrats will have learnt from the EU how to play a strong hand.

To early to call the copper reversal?

[husbod] 22/7/2018 22:36

Interesting by the way on Friday - all the small sells were soaked up by one buyer who was quite happy to spend over £70k at the offer price. Wondering if a regular buyer is what is keeping the price up and whether he's still in the market. Let's see what happens this week.

[jwafc] 22/7/2018 15:04

Business Insider UK - Here's what'll stop copper from plunging

[husbod] 21/7/2018 21:18

Not sure any solicitor would agree with that MD. judges, who are usually former barristers, tend to go out of their way to make life difficult for solicitors usually on the basis that they, solicitors, have professional indemnity insurance who can cough up. They, judges, would, quite rightly, have absolutely no hesitation in finding against a party who had been badly advised and that is what I would expect to happen in the Astor case. No certainty in litigation though.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 21/7/2018 10:35

#Rich1e, interesting you mention KAZ, it's 1 of mine too, and a pure copper price play, do an overlay of the Copper price to the share price and see just how closely the peaks/troughs match with next to no lag.., there is 35% to be made there when Copper turns and I will be on it..

The ATYM static share price shows the market of buys/sells is roughly in balance currently while the Astor ruling is unfolding, the share price has so far stood up better than I was expecting considering the drop of 18% in Copper, and held onto 235p-240p... my concern here is the lag we get with the share price responding to Copper which might see 220/210, 200 if it overshoots and there's a buying opportunity, I will add again if it does.. a superb well managed professional company with an expansion strategy in place and in progress..

But, I want to know where we are with Astor and dividends before I commit to investing much more cash, I can get a 10/15% capital growth and a 6/7% yield return on my money in the FTSE250, there is some good upside here to 300p (+25%) if events go well for us, but IF we pay Astor on drip over 6/7 years dividends go out the same distance, if we take on debt to pay Astor we could be free to pay dividends but these will be reduced while we service the loan, if equity is involved to get shot of them we could be diluted the same %.., too many unknowns..

The Astor liability all told is EUR100M with the deferred payment/uptick payments/royalty/DMT brokerage fee commitment we have to pay them, this might or might not get negotiated down (tbc)..

At USD3.10/lb payable Copper we are making roughly EUR10M per quarter so around 2.5 years profits to get them gone if they have all the profits before the company can pay a dividend providing Copper holds up, which it currently isn't so the investment case is not as strong as it was..

Add in the threat of an escalating USA/China trade war, the next step is for Trumpton to just tax everything coming in from China which he's now threatened and that will add more uncertainty to the markets..

Very interesting times, but holding and hoping without facts to go on isn't much of a strategy ... :o)

[moljen] 20/7/2018 23:19

Must admit I'm on the hold and possibly add side of the fence - interesting times for Copper in the short term but big opportunities also as it picks up.

[rich1e] 20/7/2018 20:00

Many derisking, copper tanking, the likes of Kaz having fallen 20% and here we are, anyone selling today gets a better price today than yesterday. I'm thinking that if the opportunity to buy for 2 quid was coming anytime soon, then whoever is buying 30k chunks would wait a while, instead of buying everyone else’s shares now for 240p.

[mds2028] 20/7/2018 17:37

some cheeky top ups from my side earlier in the week, every silly dip is a buying opportunity.
Yes I am very over weight on this share, but there is so much to like and it looks like the copper reversal is already kicking in.

Astor will be sorted in the next 2-3 months and whatever the result it is an issue that is cleared.

Clearly the judge is taking their time as the ruling is potentially setting a few presidents for future cases of Lawyers messing up when writing contracts.
The Judge is never going to make it to easy for the wronged to take their lawyer to court for compensation in the future.
So they are clearly trying to get some words to let the Astor Lawyers of the hook, as it is blatantly obvious they messed up, but to set a president that when a lawyer messes up a contract lik this one they have to be responsible, isn't a good day for lawyers, so clearly the judge must look after their mates rather than do the right thing.
my £3.20 target for xmas is on course!

[electricplug] 20/7/2018 14:35

Well, I'm not selling up and I'm not downsizing or sitting on the fence whilst the price is brought down to whatever you guys think is a nice re-entry point.

[mip55] 20/7/2018 11:20

I am continuing to hold pending the, what must be, imminent Astor ruling. The market hates uncertainty and one way or another the ruling should dispel that uncertainty. Q2 average copper price was 3.08, currently in Q3 that is running at 2.799 - a 9% drop. Given the potential supply disruptions I am hoping this will recover.I'm certainly not criticising long term stalwarts for de risking but this one is staying here, certainly for now!

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 20/7/2018 10:44

You can't really blame anyone for going risk off under the current circumstances Eric.., we are currently running at B/E or there abouts against an AISC of 2.50/2.60/lb.. and have a EUR100M liability all told to Astor with payment terms hanging in the balance waiting on a judgement.., and there won't be a dividend until that's ironed out..

The Q2 financials will be robust, EBITDA will be close to EUR20M with profits of EUR10M.., but Q3....?, the share price is lagging the Copper price drop..

I'm struggling to see a case to hold and hope with a potential upside of just 315p (+75p/share) with a downside risk of a whole lot more.., I've held through the drops before, and been 140p/share in the hole at worst and it's a dark miserable place, I've been an ardent supporter for a decade now, and still am, but feel the sensible money is on the fence watching and waiting ..!

Copper can turn in 2/3/4 weeks and recover some or all of its loses, but it might not as well.. :o)

[husbod] 20/7/2018 10:42

Agree entirely. I'm not as transparent as rouge so didn't bother to notify the market when I top sliced a couple of months ago for much the same reasons as Broc.Still have a significant holding and am supporting the Board and their skills/huge experience and long term vision rather than being concerned about short term dips in the copper price. It's possible that other holders and new buyers take the same view.