Atalaya Mining Share Discussion Threads

[shortarm] 17/7/2018 10:22

There are great big lumps of copper both sides of the main pit Onions!Like literally loads of copper - actual loads :-)

[rougepierre] 17/7/2018 10:17

Good day...

I think it is only fair to let you know that I have today sold mine and my wife's holdings.

We may well buy back in the future but there are a number of concerns that I have:

The recent excellent news has not dented the price fall;

While Touro is an excellent investment, as others have pointed out it will be more marginal than Rio Tinto at these prices and planning is still dragging on;

We await the Astor decision and we may know the worst case scenario but the fact is that we have to pay them at some time, as well as our capital investments, so...

I think the MMs will mark the shares down on the decision

As a friend of mine pointed out, we should have sold copper forward and at these lower prices there must be a significant dent in profits going forward;

While I see the copper price much higher in the longer term, I believe it may struggle in the short to medium term, especially if the trade war escalates and affects market sentiment;

Finally, in general I am 'risk off' on equities and hedging my position through other investments, so I find it difficult to justify retaining a £100,000 investment when, if all equities fall, ATYM cannot be immune (unless they get taken over).

I will continue to watch here and hope one day to be back into this wonderful story and the tremendous journey we've shared in the last few years.

Very best wishes and I hope you understand.

[husbod] 17/7/2018 10:14

Mr OErric is right imo.Given what this Board has achieved in a few short years there's absolutely no way they are going to sit on their backsides and let this be a one mine, or indeed two mine, company.Just look at our major shareholders and ceo - they're in it to create a major mining company and look where RTZ started.

[erric] 17/7/2018 09:50

Please,please correct me, Mr O but you sound like an investor not an entrepreneur. We have no idea how large ATALAYA might be in 14 years time but I’m damn sure the Directors aren’t thinking that the game’s up by then.
New acquisitions.
New countries.
Diversification.
New markets for new products.
Third party exploration contracts.
Re-branding as a service operation.

I’m not a miner nor a geologist but I would expect our board to do more than “last one out of the door please turn the lights off”

[mronions] 17/7/2018 09:49

My source had suggested we were expecting a couple years of LOM extension. I guess that has not been delivered. Rather we are digging it out quicker (at our expense) and to the profit of the off takers. Who really benefits from increased through put ? is it increasing efficiency over cost of implementing ?

[mronions] 17/7/2018 09:45

what do you guys think of the reserve update? was just focused on main pit , so I guess +30% not bad and supports increase in through put to 15mT/year . Its a case now do we have anything else on the property ? 14 years to return money to shareholders or all hinging on Touro.

[mronions] 17/7/2018 09:28

maybe punters did all buying ahead of reserve data, which shows +30% on main pit, but that is it. Not that exciting. What left in RIO Tinto ? The deep mine potential ? What other expansion is there ? or are we done in 14 years. Touro which is challenging relies on copper at $3.00 . In fact we are now raising are whole model on LT copper at $3.00 . How are we going to get paid in 14 years, unless the company starts paying dividends and growing (Touro) ? Nobody forgetting we still have Astor pending.

[rougepierre] 16/7/2018 17:04

IMHO the higher dollar and threat of trade wars don't help, but...

The long run shortage of copper can't be ignored.

Other risk on assets have held up, s why shouldn't copper bounce/

When equities drop and people are scared to buy bonds, cash has to go somewhere...

Cheers

[waterloo01] 16/7/2018 14:34

An excellent update with some impressive throughput, despite ongoing works to upgrade. More deeper drilling onsite which could be significant, Touro progressing but a little slower which is no surprise and hardly an issue.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 16/7/2018 13:27

Interesting RP, Dr Copper usually knows..!, and it's been 10 years since the last 1.. but what's worrying this time around is that should another recession bite the Gov has no tools left to stimulate the economy with interest rates already at zero or as near as makes no difference, QE is tapering back and has to come to an end point, you can't endlessly create money from nothing to pump into the economy...

Copper bounced off USD3.30/lb and sunk to 2.75/lb in a month, that's a huge drop over the small time frame, or is this simply a result of trade wars beginning and traders/funds going risk off or short Copper..?

Q3 earnings will be down on Q2 for sure, realised Copper will be no where near Q2's USD3.13/lb unless it upturns very soon..

Look at what's happened to alternative asset classes, which the trickle down effect has impacted.., Art/Wine/Classic cars..., and sorry a shed of a 70's/80's Dagenham dustbin isn't worth GBP100,000, it just isn't.., and 2 up 2 down houses in nice places are not worth GBP 1M either...!

The FTSE at 7800, the DOW at 25,000, the cycle will repeat, 1987/98/2000/2008 and ...? timing is everything as you say, or has it already begun as Dr Copper tells us..

[rougepierre] 16/7/2018 13:15

Buy on rumour...sell on fact...

Meanwhile, is Dr Copper presaging a recession...? In which case waterloo's note on VILX is relevant...timing is everything...

[spcecks] 16/7/2018 11:28

Pleased with that operations update still holding and happy to do so.

[tommyttrades] 16/7/2018 10:36

New update ...target remains 315p ( Highlights only..6page update)

Atalaya Mining (ATYM) today reported 2Q18 copper production of 10.4kt, up 15% yoy
and up 10% sequentially. ATYM's 2Q18 production also beat our 9.4kt forecast by
10%. Impressively, the 2Q18 production run rate came out above the top end of 2018
guidance of 37-40kt, with the overall 1H18 run rate still at the top end of guidance (CGeat 38.6kt)
.
The main reason for the beat this quarter was high throughput.
Although ore
mined this quarter was in line at 2.6mt, waste mined dropped by 12% sequentially which allowed for ore milled to be up 14% QoQ. ATYM also reported 2Q18 grades at Riotinto of 0.48%, in line with CGe and flat on the 0.48% reported in 1Q18, with recoveries around the 87% level (CGe at 88%). If ATYM can maintain the high utilisation rates achieved in 2Q18, we would expect 2018 production to come in towards the high end of guidance
this year.

Realised pricing strong, even beating 1Q18 pricing

Management also reported a stronger realised copper price in the quarter of US$3.12/
lb (excluding QP’s), up on 1Q18 realised prices of US$3.03/lb and vs our 2Q18 forecast
of US$3.00/lb. This is the second quarter of strong realised pricing and shows that a
stabilisation in market prices should see a narrowing of the previous realised discount to
spot. We expect realised pricing to continue to fluctuate around the US$3/lb cost for the
remainder of 2018. Costs will be reported at the 1H18 financials stage with guidance
standing at US$2.20-2.30/lb for 2018.
Riotinto growth project underway and on time
Management has also reported the initial progress on the Riotinto growth project which
is now underway and reported to be 41% complete, up from 27% at the last update.
Engineering is 82% complete with procurement now at 38% complete. Earthworks
are expected to be complete in the current quarter (3Q). We expect ATYM to start
commissioning on the Riotinto production expansion (up to 50kt of output) in 2019, with
mechanical completion still targeted for 2Q19.
Touro permitting ongoing with next submission this quarter
Importantly, ATYM has made progress with addressing regional administration
studies this quarter. ATYM also focused on addressing project improvements and
recommendations from the public hearing process. The amendments are now expected
to be submitted to the authorities by the end of 3Q18.
Buy Target price 315p

[cflather2000] 16/7/2018 10:15

I read in a dubious market publication that there may be a short squeeze coming for those that have shorted copper. Hopefully we'll see a bounce in the next week or so.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 16/7/2018 09:20

10,446 Tonnes for Q2 / 9,975 payable / 22M lbs

Looking forward to the Q2 financials, over and above Q1, we are
+10% on payable Copper volume
+USD 0.10/lb on realised Copper price
+4 or 5% on the USD/EUR FX

Q1 was EUR 15M EBITDA / EUR 8.7M net profit with a USD2.65/lb AISC / 3.03/lb realised Copper and if we come in under that AISC for Q2 it's looking like a very strong quarters figures..

[mip55] 16/7/2018 07:17

Atalaya Mining Plc (AIM:ATYM, TSX:AYM) is pleased to announce its operations update for the second quarter of 2018.

[cflather2000] 13/7/2018 16:12

Ouch. Looks like the copper price has caught up with us. I can't think copper will remain this cheap over the next 2 years

[waterloo01] 13/7/2018 14:52

OT, VILX (2.25x short S&P) is at an almost all time low and trades t 4.65p to buy. If US earnings are less than the stellar expected or trade wars take off, it would be an excellent price. Not a ramp as trades either way don't really effect the price, all based on US indexes.

[waterloo01] 13/7/2018 14:39

Husbod, yes agree and Alberto has the 'steel' to see it through. I'm just aware that the local environmentalists have been very active, although to date the company have answered the 'fears' that they put forward with facts. We'll see how the local Junta act.

[husbod] 13/7/2018 14:34

Can't be many mining developments in "advanced" countries that don't give rise to objections waterloo but hopefully the authorities will see the bigger picture particularly the benefits for the area in terms of employment, tax receipts etcAnd the company seems to be doing everything it can to allay environmental concerns.Fingers crossed.

[waterloo01] 13/7/2018 13:11

Luckily PRT continues forward, looking excellent as it builds. Touro will be an excellent project but the local opposition is becoming significant. Regardless that their worries are misplaced, and that ATYM are doing all the studies needed to assure, I'm concerned it will either take much longer or not get approval (which will send a very negative sign to other miners in Galithia, as even the best projects will fail on public pressure over environmental concerns.

As I say, we remain underpinned by PRT with little in the share price for Touro. (Which if I'm wrong and gets swift approval should be a major milestone).

[rougepierre] 13/7/2018 11:04

Goldman still bullish on copper...

[rougepierre] 13/7/2018 09:02

BTW I think there is a 'trade war's going on between the US exchanges and Shanghai for the dominance of commodity futures. JPM, GS and others throwing all they can at it to try and preserve their licence to make money, especially in Gold and Silver...but China and the Renminbi are coming like a Tsunami and the dollar has had its day IMHO...