Atalaya Mining Share Discussion Threads

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 16/12/2017 11:42

#Waterloo01, Over 27km of exploration and in-fill drilling completed to provide the basis of NI 43-101 technical report, Touro restart PFS and permitting underway, Pre Feasibility Study completion expected for Q4 2017, so next week would be good..

PRT Focus is on Cerro Colorado with Filón Sur area in the near-term, and San Dionisio and Alfredo in medium-term.. so plenty still to come here, but we have 12 years LOM proven ore to be going on with for now..!

[waterloo01] 16/12/2017 11:14

In terms of capital growth, depending when you invested, has been excellent over the last 18 months, more than doubling.

Copper has recovered from it's shaky week when ATYM did the raise and copper hit $2.90's It's now $3.13 and climbing. The full year 2018 should produce just under $100m EBITDA.

The uptake of the offer at £1.67, outside the cornerstone investors was poor, despite background buying. Maybe they should have done it at a bigger discount or a week earlier or later, we might have had a very different result? We will never know. However they have enough to press on with getting to 15mt.

Almost exclusively the selling last week are PI's. Unfortunately the sells were not balanced with buy orders, so the share price fell.

We should see the Touro update this week. Far from a done deal, especially as there is a lot of local environmental opposition, however I suspect the economics will be exceptional (there is a lot of copper there and the majority at decent grades and sitting near surface in 'slabs'.

On the back of this and as we move toward 4th Q numbers, I suspect II's will again take look and see both a profitable and professional mining company, with solid growth potential, with very low debt and in a geographically safe area.

The lack of resource update is a little puzzling as to why they are keeping it under wraps, as - assuming it's good - would have made the raise much more appealing, but suspect it's being kept back for other reasons, but they are continuing to drill on site. No idea of grades or costs of extraction but fairly confident it will, at the very least, increase the LOM back towards 15 years.

So in short, long term stale bulls are just that but the value and potential has already been partly recognised in the share price growth from the 80p mark and IMO it has a long way to go yet.

[vish65] 15/12/2017 17:15

The gap will close but now we have an extra 20% shares with no additional earnings for another 2 years so on a eps or p/e basis I'm looking for a 175p - 20% = 140p re-entry point. I completely sold out after the Q3 results as there were too many short term issues that needed sorting.

Still a great long term copper stock but not just at the moment.

Anyway lets see.

I'm up elsewhere so not complaining and there are plenty of exciting resource stocks to choose from at the moment

[waterloo01] 15/12/2017 16:08

And copper now $3.12+. Selling is very short sighted IMO but each to their own.

[robmcelf2] 15/12/2017 15:57

If there was a technical gap at 158, looks like it's now closed so we can hopefully move up from here. Expecting Touro resource update next week.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 15/12/2017 13:45

#Van, I'm always happy to learn something, specially from someone with your in depth knowledge.., but in this example the same total amount of rocks processed, in the same plant, at the same recovery efficiency would produce the same total amount of Copper if it's processed @ 15.0MTPA or 9.5 and 16.0 or 12 years, the grades might be different as it's blended together giving a variation, the overall result would not be much different in Copper recovery and sales.., but with the plant efficiency improvements by doing the upgrade we will recover more Copper.., and then there is the 7% reduction in AISC, and increase in EBITDA..

Supporting evidence:

From the 2016 43-101, total Copper recovery over 18 year LOM is 574,000 Tonnes
From the RNS 2017 upgrade to 15.0 MTPA Total projected Copper recovery over 12 year LOM = 626,000 Tonnes

So we are actually forecast to recover more Copper overall by doing the expansion, and not running PRT at 9.5 MTPA.., roughly 50KT which pays for the upgrade.

Can you try again with your argument against the expansion..?

[vanhelsingjr] 15/12/2017 11:35

A mining course for LLB
Present production 8,8 M, copper 35.000 for 84% recovery feed grade is 0,47%
Expected production 15 M copper 55.000 for same recovery feed grade will be 0,43%
So the grade for the new ore will be 0,38%.
More volume for the benefit of corrupt contractors and off- takers, less value against the interest of pi. That is the reason for the lack of interest for the capital raise. Even Orion did not suscribe in full.
Rio Tinto is one of the best known deposit in the world, evaluated since 1890 by some of the best english, american, australian and spanish geologist and owned till 1993 by Rio Tinto ltd. San Dionisio and San Antonio as well as Filon Sur are fully documented since 1950, nobody can expect surprises other than deeper deposits difficult to evaluate.
Yes we have a friend with a lot of shares averaging 1,98.

[cufes2] 15/12/2017 10:18

Trafigura doing a reverse takeover here is complete nonsense IMHO . . .

[rougepierre] 15/12/2017 10:14

Shades of ATYM...KRS looks like its about to take off...after a very long wait despite undeniable underlying value...

How long before we get the next phase of ATYM's price growth...II holdings settle down...liquidity much improved...steady news flow...Astor out of the way...dividends...then off to the races...

As I said to Scargs the other day...in 5/10 years ATYM will be a significant mainland Europe diversified mining company, supported by the second biggest metals trader in the world...

Unless Traf does a GLEN/XTA reverse takeover...

AIMHO as usual and GLA...

[mpclag] 15/12/2017 07:46

top up time for me

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 14/12/2017 18:04

I don't agree Van, the 43-101 we have is for 16.5 years LOM @ 9.5MTPA, and that's the reserves the expansion to 15.0MTPA is based on, there is no reduction of ore grade, it's the same ore just processed in 12 years not 16.5..

It's also highly likely that with the other ore bodies on PRT not yet modelled, or not yet found and drilled that the plant will be busy for some time after 12 years too..

There is the $80M extra plant cost of course, but this is off set by the 7% AISC reduction through economies of scale, and we will still own the plant at the end to do with as we wish..

Copper $3.08 and rebounding well.. :o)

[rich1e] 14/12/2017 18:01

Talks sense? he can see the share price going below a quid, and whilst warning everyone else off, continues to stay invested. There’s apparently a lot of it about, does your association date back to an investment class you once attended together?

Well, we’ve been enlightened as to the guest list at a Spanish contractors wedding, but what we really want to know is, Are there any more £1/4 Million buys in the offing and are we going to wake up one morning to find someone has doubled our money?

[estienne] 14/12/2017 17:42

I always thought Stockready did talk sense. He just didn't have much patience with some of the other posters and they took their toys off and went elsewhere.

[shortarm] 14/12/2017 11:54

Aw, stockready and Van agree....It's so nice when people agree....I agree with many others that they're a pair of spanners :-)

[stockready] 14/12/2017 11:36

Below is the message from Van,

I never thought I would ever say this, but I agree with him on this one, :-)

if you look above, I actually raised this first before his post today.

However I still think Al will leave (that is part we disagree), as he is always a man who delivers on his promises and on this one he would certainly struggles, also Traf want their own people in charge so they are going to try to get rid of him soon.

Al can always make money other places, he is truly one of the best project manager I have come across, he is sharp, down to earth and knows what he is talking. meet him few times.

Traf are going to screw us all, and they are the only one who would benefit this longer term, we have been waited long enough before all these BS about upgrade to 15mt came about, we should have just concentrated on current production rate and a bit of small exploration on the side to back up the reserve (at least for the next 3 years), this is a big mistake in my opinion and will back fire on all of us, there is no way they would deliver what they promised by Q1 OF 2019, and I bet you anything they will end up using money in another places and not a dam thing anything anyone could do about this.

Van is also right about saying:

crazy expansion based in a reduction in feed grade and life of mine through a feasibility study validated only by the CEO and the Chairman without any independent assessment or new reserves including a new NI 43-101. Why?

I 100% agree with above,

you all know how much I care about this company and how much I know about it because I am still heavily invested here but sometimes you have to say it as it is and may be harsh for some people to take in,

I will continue to invest here and I honestly believe this company will deliver at some point but there are loads of hands to feed in before we get our profit in terms of share value, so the timeline has shifted by at least 4 years before you could see £4 or above here, dilution at this stage with the promise of upgrade production was a big big mistake IMHO

Traf and others want to squeeze as much as they can before we could see decent profit which can be pass on to loyal shareholders, however as long as those wheels are turning and generating copper you should not worry too much, but the value is reduced as more risk and uncertainly are introduced and of course more shares floating.

Astor case is very very important milestone to pass successfully, but I think that case is a difficult one and they will squeeze something from us which ultimately means our balance sheet will be affected as well as the mess Traf has created here to expand their own empire at the minimum costs to them. if they care so much about this increase production and holding the share value why haven't they jointly raise this money themselves?

anyway that is my take and I agree with Van on this one, but Al will go in less than 3 months IMHO

GLA
IMHO
..............................................................................

vanhelsingjr
14 Dec '17 - 09:29 - 10041 of 10045
 



15 M or Project Aguila is a crazy expansion based in a reduction in feed grade and life of mine through a feasibility study validated only by the CEO and the Chairman without any independent assessment or new reserves including a new NI 43-101. Why?
More volume but less value. Sincerely astonishing and showing once again that the project is controlled by the corrupted contractors and the offtakers, the only beneficiaries of such expansion. More tonnage and more waste to move at inflated costs and controlled by the head of the gang and more concentrate to be moved and handled through Trafigura Terminal and bought by off takers at huge discounts through one sided QP terms.
For your information, Mr. Lavandeira was the best man in the earth movement controller’s second wedding.
SR is right in the other thread.

[shortarm] 14/12/2017 10:35

Van the man turns up with his derisive comments on the company and suddenly there's a bit of a concerted selling effort.....Maybe he still has a friend with some shares?

[shortarm] 14/12/2017 09:42

Massive discounts?Hehe, you make stuff up :-)

[waterloo01] 14/12/2017 09:35

Van, so why do you think they are holding back the update on reserves?

[vanhelsingjr] 14/12/2017 09:32

SR is right except in AL interest, he will stay because he is making a lot of money.

[vanhelsingjr] 14/12/2017 09:29

15 M or Project Aguila is a crazy expansion based in a reduction in feed grade and life of mine through a feasibility study validated only by the CEO and the Chairman without any independent assessment or new reserves including a new NI 43-101. Why?
More volume but less value. Sincerely astonishing and showing once again that the project is controlled by the corrupted contractors and the offtakers, the only beneficiaries of such expansion. More tonnage and more waste to move at inflated costs and controlled by the head of the gang and more concentrate to be moved and handled through Trafigura Terminal and bought by off takers at huge discounts through one sided QP terms.
For your information, Mr. Lavandeira was the best man in the earth movement controller’s second wedding.
SR is right in the other thread.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 14/12/2017 09:08

The company has increased it's share capital by +20%, at 167p, to enable the PRT expansion to 15.0MTPA to go ahead, and from mid 2019 we will be cranking out 50-60,000 Tonnes of Copper as the EV market gains momentum and anything on wheels going battery powered..

2018 will pay for the PRT plant upgrade through cash for concentrate off takes
2019 profits will cover Astor
2020/2021/2022 profits will unlock and pay for the Touro plant build

55,000 Tonnes / 121M lbs / $3.50 Copper / $2.25 AISC / $1.25 margin / $150M EBITDA
Then add in Touro's 35,000 Tonnes of Copper and we're cranking out 90,000 Tonnes a year, 200M/lbs at maybe a $1.50 margin, $300M EBITDA..

The potential for long term dividends look strong when both plants are built and spinning off that much cash.. :o)

Copper rebounding well to $3.07/lb today..

[rich1e] 13/12/2017 17:52

So as not to clutter it up here, if you have anything that you think might be helpful, post it over there and I’ll have a read through over the coming days. Cheers.