Atalaya Mining Share Discussion Threads

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 10/3/2017 08:07

Escondida union / workers picket line and dig in for another month..
"There is little sign of the strike ending any time soon"..

Copper is rebounding some, after being sold off this week...

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 09/3/2017 17:33

Day 30 for the Escondida strike tomorrow 10th, significant because the workers can cross the picket line and go back to work if they want to, if not it will roll into month 2...

Given Copper has softened 20c/lb, our share price has held up very well considering...

[rougepierre] 09/3/2017 10:08

At least one big buyer is happy with 60,000 shares at 145 in the last 24 hours...

They obviously are taking the long view...

AIMHO as usual...

[rougepierre] 09/3/2017 10:05

This is an interesting article regarding investment strategy particularly in 'junior' miners.

I may have to revise my own strategy because it indicates that the best returns are from buying when construction starts and selling at 'first pour'.

I don't buy explorers anymore unless they are at or near production with at least one significant project. So the way forward seems to be buying developers...

In that context I've added ORM, AMC and WLFE, also because although all commodities are being hit by the strong dollar right now (especially gold, silver, platinum and copper), some of them, like tungsten, lithium, cobalt, uranium, palladium, have a bright future and are expected to outperform...

GLA and keep the faith in ATYM..."it's the market stupid..." as someone once said...

[reba] 09/3/2017 10:02

Down we go again

[rougepierre] 09/3/2017 09:40

copper tanking...

[rougepierre] 09/3/2017 08:57

Sorry...forgot to add...AIMHO as usual...GLA!

[rougepierre] 09/3/2017 08:54

Hg...I understand your frustration...of course it appears AL is doing little for private investors, but he is building a stonking success, following the failures of his predecessors...he's saved $100m in Capex that would either have to be raisedvthrough massive dilution or savagely priced debt. Either would havecthe share price languishing at way below the present levels...

He is working his socks off to court institutional investors to take up the shares that tired or impatient holders have been letting go...he h as been making countless investor presentations and the regular updates through these give us clear insights into how well the company is doing financially, its just that few trust that until they see the facts...

IMO having the share price above 140 when people who bought in the placing at 142.5, coper has fallen 5% and he has had the Astor case to resolve, is a minor miracle in my opinion...

In the next month there is only good news to look forward to:

The 2016 FY operations report gave us a clear steer as to how much casflow we're generating, profit and EBITDA that can be derived from the production levels and cost assumptions that we know from the Presentation

The Q1 operations update in early April will show us producing at nameplate capacity or above and again, using the presentation numbers and what we know about actual copper prices we'll be able to get a pretty strong steer on how profitable and cash generative we are...

Then no latercthan 24 April we will have the Final Results, showing a profit in Q4 and how small the loss was for the year. It is pretty likely to give us strong insights into the actual costs and profits in Q1.

Given that one broker has just raised their target to 239p SINCE the Astor case, we know these results will be well received by the market, leaving us only two things to worry about...the copper price and liquidity in the shares...

Once we are clear of 142.5 I believe it is a reasonable bet that shares will be leaked out by people who bought the Placing, giving us the fuel to rise towards 200p and beyond...if the copper price hold up I believe we will see 200p this year, earlier than you think...

Of course he must look after his major investors because they funded the company. Without them we would have $100m debt and have had to pay Astor instalments. They are in for the long haul and at least two of them are interested in income as well as capital gain.

[shortarm] 09/3/2017 08:08

That's the third 40k trade in a few weeks...Harry to fund his KEFI shares?

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 08/3/2017 20:56

It's not my best 1 either HG..!

But, as with any business, value comes along with results not with big dreams, chasing rainbows and empty promises, but with demonstrating that your business strategy works by posting profits.., we know that FY2016 was close to scratch, and we know that Q1-2017 is profitable to the tune of $4.5M per month.

So Q1 will show around +$13/14M gross profits, it's taken years too long but finally we are in the profit zone, and once posted it will put us on the map as a profit generator, instead of a loss maker..

After so many years of pain holding this through permitting/financing and a high court case, now is not the time to run out of patience IMO, it's a tough one for any forced sellers, but if you don't need the £'s, FY2017 has to see some of the value unlocked with $50-60M of profits and value adding to the share price .



Three-month copper fell 1 percent Tuesday to $5,858 a ton on the London Metal Exchange. Even with the recent gains, copper trades at almost half the price reached in 2011. Prices may climb above $8,000 a ton before the end of the decade, Citigroup forecasts. Estimates compiled by Bloomberg predict a median price of $6,414 a ton by 2020.

“The dramatic capex crunch in the copper mining sector since 2012 has eviscerated the copper project pipeline for much of the remainder of the current decade," analysts led by David Wilson said in the Citigroup report. The market is headed for a shortfall of 327,000 metric tons in 2017, rising to 600,000 tons in 2020, according to David Lilley, co-founder of RK Capital Management LLC and one of the world’s top copper investors

[acamas] 08/3/2017 17:42

Reba,

This share is desperately attempting to move above 145p. There is a battle going on between buyers and sellers. Which I hope the buyers will succeed. Once we move above 145p the next resistance level is 168p after that we are past £2. Now lets see if I can read chart movement.

However should the sellers win then 130p becomes the support line

[gcpinc] 08/3/2017 17:38

Interesting late trade of 40k at 145p !

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 08/3/2017 15:38

#Husbod, O/T but that didn't take long did it..

2015 Directors dividends grossed up 10% but tax free up to basic rate tax threshold
2016 reduced to £5K then 7.5% up to basic rate tax threshold
2017 reduced to £2K 7.5% up to basic rate tax threshold
2018 Zero tax free dividends, all taxed at 7.5% up to basic rate tax threshold..?

For 2017/18 we gain 1% on Corp tax, + £500 personal allowance up to £11,500 + basic rate tax goes up to £33,500 (£45,000 total).. so on balance a director/company owner is about evens after the budget..

So far.. dividends from inside an ISA are tax free, but how long for is any ones guess.., not that this is going to be any use after ATYM's dividends just got kicked down the road some..!

[husbod] 08/3/2017 14:04

Thanks Hammond. Another reason not to bother with dividends. So glad this is a growth stock or at least should be.

[rougepierre] 08/3/2017 13:46

My apologies for not having your diligence...so what did you buy at? And how has the chart not correlated with positivity since...?

Thanks for the PDZ rec...I always take some time researching before investing and I also had to free up some short term trading funds from ATYM...

Cheers

[cufes2] 08/3/2017 13:35

LOL . . . I did tell you about PDZ weeks ago . . .

As I've said before I tend to trade the chart here . . . I've given a few buy and sell calls here over the years and had quite a bit of success . . . Here's one you forgot again . . .

CuFeS210 Nov '16 - 11:34 - 3631 of 6121 3 0 Edit
Rougepierre

Well done for all your hard work over the last few days . . . However, don't forget the chart over the longer term and the correlation (or not) with your longer term positivity . . . As I said, the share price was range bound . . . But as soon as it went through the 90p area it was a buy for me . . .

[rougepierre] 08/3/2017 13:30

Continuing in my search for where to reinvest my ATYM proceeds when I sell half...

Just bought PDZ...coking coal at $4.60/tonne cf imported Oz coal at $37...

Deffo one for the 'man drawer'...

AIMHO as usual...

[rougepierre] 08/3/2017 12:44

So to summarise the current position as I know it...

Peel Hunt upped from 175 to 190 on 11 Jan and reiterated the Buy on 23 Feb

Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated a Buy at 217 on 24 Feb and upped this to 239 on 7 March, AFTER the Astor judgement...

Canaccord Genuity upgraded to a Buy with a 195 target on 5 January and restated this on 6 February

FinnCap restated a Buy and 209 on 11 October and reissued on 16 January

On 24 November Mirabaud reiterated its Buy and 175 target with this detailed note, which has since been eclipsed by achievement of 'nameplate' capacity:

hxxp://www.shareprophets.com/views/25482/atalaya-mining-at-139p-worth-175p

On 18 November, Zak Mir said "I am looking for a big target here, as high as 160-170p over the next few months..."

In addition, the following Brokers are following Atalya...

BMO Capital

Brandon Hill Capital

Investec

Numis Securities

RFC Ambrian

S P Angel

Whitman Howard

Now that's 12 Analysts in total...they all have Institutional as well as private clients...

Surely that should convince the doubters going forward...?

AIMHO as usual...