Atalaya Mining Share Discussion Threads

[rougepierre] 06/3/2017 15:33

Blow me if we haven't just been on Bloomberg TV...

"Atalya Mining soars after Astor judgement...."

"Shares were up to 8% higher..."

Maybe our Coms people are doing a great job after all...

That'll certainly bring us to the attention of a wider audience...

[reba] 06/3/2017 15:28

SuperBobTaylor

Not bad for a 72 year old. Exercise every other day for at least 2.5/3 hrs
Had triple heart bye-pass 15 years ago. never looked back.

[rougepierre] 06/3/2017 14:58

Oh and SaintB...sound post...can't fault it...

Onwards and upwards...

[rougepierre] 06/3/2017 14:57

Taken some profits off the table for the last week or so...

Reinvested in doubling 88E, GENL, KEFI and SML...

GLA

[superbobtaylor] 06/3/2017 14:53

That is pretty good Reba. You must be super fit or some kind of zen master. 5 x Tour De France winner Miguel Indurain only got as low as 28bpm. (and he had quite a lot of, errmm, shall we say 'medical help')

SBT

[reba] 06/3/2017 14:48

Husbod
Blood pressure perfect. Resting pulse I can get down to 33/35 bpm

6p and we are back where we started this morning
It's going no-where especially not £2-00, Dream on.

It's still along way off what I paid for initially.

[erric] 06/3/2017 14:30

Who will be the first LTH to say they are glad that a lot of "short-termist" PI's have baled out today, leaving just us solid ones.

If I allowed stockready back in to the discussion, that's exactly what he would say.

[husbod] 06/3/2017 14:22

I'm not going to ask reba how his blood pressure is watching the 11p rise dwindling to 5p.

At least THR is up 40% today (still not near what I paid for it years ago - it's ATYM's distant Oz cousin from my point of view).

If we appeal on the side issue of the excess cash I wonder whether Astor would be tempted to cross-appeal on the main issue. They don't seem to have any case but who knows.

Now we've got a tight spread.... grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

[saintb] 06/3/2017 14:17

Pleased to see the judgement went as I expected ,but the 10 million figure seems low to me. As we are expecting to make around 50 million profit this year I would be interested in what terms are put in place to regulate the speed at which the debt is repaid, particularly as we need plenty of cash to develop the Touro mine (200 million?). More detail to come no doubt including a possible appeal.

Also, as I anticipated, the share price has not moved, particularly as I feel it was artificially lowered before the judgement,off-setting any gain seen today.. We must now wait until some profit figures are released, so some weeks to go before any serious change IMO.

What of the future then. I have been considering the arguments put forward concerning moving out of AIM and the scenario I now see is this:

Due to the way the company is set up and because I do not think any of our major investors now have predatory intentions, the chances of the company going private are small IMO, but it is what I would describe as a "Closed Shop".

Joining the FTSE350 would be a necessary move if we needed to raise money for cash flow or expansion, but we don`t. AL has got enough to keep him and his team busy for the next 3 to 4 years, what with Touro and further expansion of PRT and we should (serious production/ copper price issues apart)be able to fund any requirements from cash flow over this period of time.

The Astor repayment will be an integral part of this but if extra cash is required it could be raised by way of loans from the big 4 against future off-take. The eventual Touro/PRT production has got to be sold to someone, why not our major investors?

Although the Astor Judgement seems to throw some doubt about paying dividends for the time being at least our major investors and us PI`s, could see our NAV/SP increase over time as profits build up and it would limit the need to issue further shares thus avoiding any dilution of current holdings.

I am sure there are other angles I have possibly missed and as I said earlier it is a "Closed Shop" so they can do anything they want but, until I see some game changing profit figures the above thoughts will keep me amused.

[rougepierre] 06/3/2017 14:09

I agree with you MrO...

The most likely scenarios now are:

1 Appeal the judgement

2 Negotiate with Astor.

The smart thing is the latter. My logic is this:

From Astor's point of view, ATYM Minera Riotinto does not have to pay them a penny for 16 years. The 'sub' could simply accumulate cash in its balance sheet indefinitely, against which the parent could raise debt to fund the Touro project, at very attractive rates of interest, without triggering Astor payment (because the Astor debt is on the Rioting subsidiary)...

From ATYM's point of view, accumulating a growing pot of cash would push the share price up steadily. The consolidate balance sheet could show, let's say, 500 million Euros of cash years down the road, with the Ator debt and any fuss raised to progress Touro on the other side...Once Touro starts generating cashflow, ATYM could use these funds to pay off the Touro debt and/or pay dividends...

However, the smart thing to do is to clear the decks and get on with running the Company, so...

Agree a schedule of payments with Astor over, say the next 5 years, linked directly to cashflow or profit targets from Riotinto...

We do NOT want to go back to Court, creating uncertainty for the next year or so...markets hate uncertainty...

Astor just wants certainty of payment...

There has to be a middle ground somewhere...

AIMHO as usual...

[langostino] 06/3/2017 14:05

I expect an appeal. It is the opposite of what Trafigura wanted. Astor will start getting their 53m soon and in regular payments. I do not see any outcome on costs that unduly favours one party. Also looks entirely priced in.

[rougepierre] 06/3/2017 14:01

Offered under 150 now Husbod...

[mronions] 06/3/2017 14:01

Am happy ... there must be talks with Astor now, unless relationship is destroyed. Astor need to get paid , and if they a bad partners they will have to wait ... and so will we. Waterloo makes a good point, does Turro get impacted ?

[rougepierre] 06/3/2017 13:57

So what...wait till the Q4 and Annual Results for the next big spike....

You can see people are fearful of missing out based on today's price action...

[estienne] 06/3/2017 13:53

I sold most of my holding some years ago at 5p. Even the ruling hasn't taken them any higher

[husbod] 06/3/2017 13:01

Sense of humour these mms. They have indeed tightened the spread......downwards... and have come off the 150 bid....down to 148.

If we end up back where we started, which is not beyond the realms of possibility with this share, I will be topping up.

[husbod] 06/3/2017 12:40

Can someone shift that pesky mm on the 150 bid.

A nice tight spread (upwards) would be nice.

[rougepierre] 06/3/2017 12:39

Meanwhile...LME copper stocks lowest for 9 months at 196,000 tonnes...COMEX stocks topped out at 126,730....looks like the strike and Freeport restrictions are really beginning to bite...shortfall up to November last year also...

[waterloo01] 06/3/2017 12:34

The judgement is as expected. We remain in control of when we pay the debt however the restriction from the master agreement still stands that unless Astor agree any free cash over 10m (excluding whatever is spent on PRT) will have to be paid to clear the debt.

Time for some negotiations with Astor as to changing some of the agreement in return for a payment schedule?

Nothing on costs, but as the Astor claim has failed, I'd expect them to have to cover.

Key question for me is expansion outside of PRT. Can they raise the 200m needed to fund it before the full deferred consideration is payed? Again, one for the negotiating table.

Happy with the win and nothing not as expected.

[spcecks] 06/3/2017 12:30

Sounds fair to me also.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 06/3/2017 12:24

Sounds fair to me, the debt is owed, we get to pay it as/when we can out of profits, no fixed repayments, no end date and after all costs/expenses, and we have $10M a year to use to build/fund other projects as we like.., PRT now fully de risked, a sensible and fair ruling..

We should be able to wipe out the €53M in 1-2 years waterloo01, it will take that long to get Touro permitted.., perfect timing I would say..!

[husbod] 06/3/2017 12:23

A measured response as usual charlieeee. Are you tempted to board the train now?

[rougepierre] 06/3/2017 12:16

This makes Touro look like a VERY good deal now....

[sirmoori] 06/3/2017 12:14

The key paragraph reads, "...up to UD$10m a year for EMED Group expenses NOT (my emphasis) related to the project, EMED cannot make any distribution....". This does not restrict project finance.

[charlieeee] 06/3/2017 12:12

Husbod

It looks very much as if AL was a "credible witness".

His assertions re the senior debt have been accepted. He also hase always said that the debt would be paid.

The resolution follows that thinking, which is not the "shark" approach.

The debt is not being allowed to bankrupt the company, but equally it is to be paid as soon as possible in full.

It does look on the face of it to be a somewhat unusual judgement, but then there will be a lot of detail in the agreement to which we were not privy, which may have pointed in this direction.