Aston Martin Lagonda Glo... Share Discussion Threads

[iant20] 21/9/2023 12:47

There he is. Price alert go off this morning?

[dancing piranha] 21/9/2023 11:00

choo choo....Get ramping boys, it's not looking good!

[dealy] 21/9/2023 09:47

Market conditions have worsened significantly since August 1st when the company raised 200m at 371p. In general the stock market is going through hell right now

[crank001] 29/8/2023 11:50

Choo Choo!! Indeed and loads more to come...

[time for common sense] 25/8/2023 11:18

* Aston Martin : Jefferies raises target price to 420p from 300p * Aston Martin : Jefferies raises to buy from hold

[timc2645sg] 18/8/2023 13:42

Great news Cranky, Choo choo brother.

[crank001] 18/8/2023 13:07

Barclays raises Aston Martin Lagonda Global price target to 400 (375) pence - 'overweight'Barclays raises Aston Martin Lagonda Global price target to 400 (375) pence - 'overweight'

[blackhorse23] 16/8/2023 11:23

Added GATC today , excellent dividend yield 5p per share

[timc2645sg] 10/8/2023 13:05

Makes no odds to them if AML went bust. Fact is that it is in excellent ahape moving forwards. Either stays with yew tree and present ownership mix or bought out by pif or geeley or rhen together. Either way, lts are in for a good time this next yeat or two.

May I add that TIM2645sg a parody name of the abhorrent individual posting a diatribe of nonsense on multiple channels.

He rarely engages on advfn because I can answer and call it out for what it is. A gimp of the highest order!

[eigthwonder] 10/8/2023 12:57

They aren’t mental, they’re motivated by the fact they earn gazillions in fees from keeping it alive.

[timc2645sg] 10/8/2023 12:22

Has anyone told Tim, Karen ans Dennis? Hsbc, Goldman and Barclays must all be mental?

[time for common sense] 10/8/2023 12:10

* Aston Martin : HSBC raises target price to 380p from 310p

[chesil356] 09/8/2023 21:33

New Model Reveal at Pebble beach 18th – 20th August

[timc2645sg] 07/8/2023 17:44

Great news Chesil.

[chesil356] 07/8/2023 17:09

Moody's changes Aston Martin's outlook to positive from stable; Caa1 ratings affirmed
Rating Action
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8 min read
07 Aug 2023
Moody's Investors Service
London, August 07, 2023 -- Moody's Investors Service (Moody's) has today changed Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings plc's (AML, Aston Martin or the company) outlook to positive from stable. Concurrently, Moody's has affirmed AML's Caa1 corporate family rating (CFR) and Caa1-PD probability of default rating (PDR), and the Caa1 instrument rating of the backed senior secured first-lien notes due November 2025 issued by Aston Martin Capital Holdings Limited.

A full list of affected ratings can be found towards the end of this press release.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The affirmation of AML's ratings and the outlook change to positive from stable reflects the company's improving operating performance in the first half of 2023, which Moody's expects to be sustained over the next 18 months on the back of the company's ongoing launch of the next generation sports cars. The rating action further reflects AML's recently completed placing of £210 million of new shares and its plan to use the proceeds mostly for the early redemption of its second-lien notes with a face value of around £186 million. The planned repayment of the second-lien notes is evidence of a more balanced financial policy which includes the accelerated target to achieve a company-adjusted net leverage of around 1.0x by 2024-25.

Moody's forecasts AML to achieve strong revenue growth of about 15% to £1.6 billion revenue in 2023, and a further 25% increase in 2024 to reach close to its £2 billion revenue ambition. The recently launched and well-received DB12, the additional new model launches planned for the next 12 months, as well as the continued success of its DBX should support strong volume growth over the next 18 months, and Moody's forecasts wholesales to exceed 8,000 units by the end of 2024. While volume growth is considered a key driver to achieve its revenue and EBITDA targets, Moody's understands that AML no longer has specific volume targets. Instead the company focuses on increasing its average selling price (ASP) and achieving a gross margin of above 40% for new models launched to drive its revenue and EBITDA growth.

Based on the assumptions of higher volumes and an ASP exceeding £220k in 2023 and trend towards £230k in 2024, Moody's forecasts AML's Moody's-adjusted EBITDA (adjusted for capitalised development cost) to turn positive and reach just over £100 million in 2024. In combination with the redemption of the second-lien notes, which will reduce the company's Moody's-adjusted debt by around 13% to £1.1 billion, Moody's expects AML's adjusted leverage to decrease towards 10x by year-end 31 December 2024.

Furthermore, Moody's forecasts AML's adjusted free cash flow to improve to around break-even in 2024, after remaining substantially negative by about £200 million in 2023. This improvement is supported by a significantly higher EBITDA and an estimated £12 million decrease in interest expenses following the planned debt repayment.

Considering the anticipated improvements in the company's cash generation from 2024 onwards, and its £400 million cash position at the end of June 2023, Moody's does not expect AML to require additional debt or equity funding over the next two years. If AML is able to also refinance the $1.155 billion of backed senior secured first-lien notes well ahead of their maturity in November 2025, and simultaneously extend its revolving credit facility (RCF) due August 2025, Moody's would view the company's capital structure as sustainable which could support a rating improvement.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

AML's ratings also reflect a number of environmental, social and governance (ESG) considerations that are inherent to the automotive industry. This includes higher environmental standards, stricter emission regulations and electrification; autonomous driving and connectivity; increasing vehicle safety regulations; and the entry of new market participants. In line with the company's guidance to invest £2 billion over five years, including technology access fees, Moody's expects AML as well as its peers to continue to require sizeable investments to cope with these challenges, which will continue to constrain free cash flows in the coming years.

RATING OUTLOOK

The positive outlook reflects Moody's expectation that AML's credit metrics will notably improve over the next 12-18 months, supported by strong revenue and EBITDA growth, fuelled by multiple new model launches and a substantial order book. The outlook further assumes that AML will follow a more balanced financial policy with a clear focus on deleveraging whilst maintaining an adequate liquidity.

FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS

Upward pressure on the rating could materialise if AML 's successfully completes the launch and commences deliveries of its next generation sports cars, and as such continues to improve its average wholesale price and grow its revenue. It would also require Moody's-adjusted free cash flow to sustainably improve to around break-even, liquidity to remain at least adequate, Moody's-adjusted Debt/EBITDA to improve towards 7.0x on a sustained basis, and the Moody's-adjusted EBITA margin to turn sustainably positive.

The rating is currently strongly positioned, as expressed by the positive outlook, as a result of which limited negative rating pressure is expected. However, downward pressure on the rating could develop if AML fails to further improve its profitability, leverage remains very high or free cash flow continues to be substantially negative. A weakening in AML's liquidity profile or an increase in debt would also put pressure on the rating.

LIQUIDITY ANALYSIS

Moody's considers AML's liquidity to be adequate. As of 30 June 2023, the company had £400 million of cash on the balance sheet and access to its £90.6 million RCF due in August 2025, which was drawn down by £29 million. In addition, the company has an inventory repurchase programme in place. AML's RCF is subject to a springing net leverage covenant which is tested when the facility is drawn by more than 40% and Moody's expects the company to maintain sufficient headroom going forward as it continues to reduce its leverage as defined by the covenant.

Moody's forecasts AML's free cash flow (Moody's-adjusted) to be marginally positive in the second half of 2023, following an outflow of around £230 million in the first half of the year, and to be close to break-even in financial year 2024. As such Moody's expects AML's liquidity to remain adequate over the next 12-18 months, and to improve further through free cash flow generation beyond 2024.

STRUCTURAL CONSIDERATIONS

The Caa1 rating of the backed senior secured first-lien notes due in November 2025 ranks in line with the Caa1 CFR, despite the priority position of the £90.6 million super senior RCF and because of its relatively small size compared to the $1.155 billion of backed senior secured first-lien notes. Both the first- and second-lien notes, the latter expected to be repaid, have been issued by Aston Martin Capital Holdings Limited, while the RCF was issued by Aston Martin Lagonda Limited.

The shared security and guarantee package for the notes and RCF cover 79% of AML's revenue and 113% of AML's assets, and includes the main factory in Gaydon and significant intellectual property. Other debt includes various working capital financing arrangements and some smaller debt facilities

[timc2645sg] 04/8/2023 17:12

Just the confirmation of the placing.

[crank001] 02/8/2023 12:35

Boring boring Swiss...Choo Choo!!

[swiss tony] 01/8/2023 19:12

Bond yield was 15%.
Why would anyone sell? 15% per annum for a company that will NEVER go bankupt under Stroll, his ego wouldn't take it ;)
Total nobrainer...

[leadersoffice] 01/8/2023 14:04

Would say so