Assura Share Discussion Threads

[scburbs] 04/9/2009 14:37

Simon Gordon,

It is an interesting post, but wasn't it made slightly redundant by the news in June that there was some value?

"5 non-core pharmacies and 8 pharmacy opportunities or licences divested or in solicitors' hands for a total of £5.5m"



Given the current share price, a valuation of nil for the pharmacy division would be fine by me. However, it seems to be doing better than that and recent trading statement was positive.

"Q1 pharmacy revenues were ahead of budget and in our wholly owned pharmacies, like for like prescription item numbers were up 9 per cent compared to the same period last year."

[scburbs] 03/9/2009 22:23

The uncertainty over GPCo's must be the problem here. However, the recent IMS was positive on the revenue ramp up starting. Costs have been cut and it is worth remembering that the GPCo costs include bid costs.

Assura have a very powerful shareholder list (at 31 May 2009).

Invesco 29.26%
Artemis 11.91%
Aviva 7.44%
Jupiter 5.51%
Legal & General 5.03%
Moore Capital Management 4.58%
Lazard Asset Mgmt 4.1%
Burrell 4.05%
F&C Asset Mgmt 4%
EBT 3.48%

Total 79.36%

Given the free float is limited I suspect selling by a large shareholder is forcing down the price. As recent newsflow looks positive this may well be a forced seller and once they are done the price should bounce sharply. Artemis seem to have gone up to 12% recently so don't seem to be the seller.

I can't immediately tell who the seller is. I thought it was L&G, but there fall below 5% only seems to be down to a slight increase in total shares.

[simon gordon] 03/9/2009 20:28

Had a look at an Edison note, 3/7/09, and the achilles heel is the GPCo division which is bleeding capital. GPCo overheads are c.£7m. It is low margin business which requires strong volume. Edison don't expect any profits to be generated in the next 2 to 3 years for GPCo.

Pharmacy should be generating £3m to £4m in profits by FY2012.

To me, it looks like the management have gone slightly bonkers. They have taken a sound "core" property business and are now taking the PLC into venture capital experiments in fairly low margin businesses which have no relation to the "core" business. Tribal had to offload their medical outsourcing venture as it crippled their rating and took them away from "core". The Board of AGR are destroying shareholder value, they should have focused on property and sweated the assets for shareholders.

Best solution would be for the Board to be fired and a new team come in and divest the medical services division. Focus on the "core" and get the dividend up and running, the discount to NAV would narrow and value created.

[scburbs] 03/9/2009 12:51

I like the look of these even if no-one else does! Selling property at above book value is a good sign. At 24p they trade at a discount to NAV of c.60% (or 47% if intangibles are removed).

"The aggregate sale price of £5.7m in cash is circa 5 per cent ahead of the most recently published valuation and will result in a profit on disposal of circa £260k over the book value of the assets."



The closest competitor from a property perspective is PHP. PHP trades at around 110% of NAV. PHP is a pure property play.

From a property perspective, Assura has:

1. Rental growth at around 4%. (from latest RNS)
2. 81 per cent of the investment property portfolio's rental income is reimbursed by the NHS with a weighted average lease length across the portfolio of over 17 years. (from last results)

In this market yields on this type of lease have started to reduce and valuations have started to increase. I suspect Assura's property portfolio is broadly flat since last valuation on 31 March, highlighting the fact that the NAV discount looks too high.

[hybrasil] 02/9/2009 17:24

Why are these falling in a recovering market

[hybrasil] 09/3/2009 08:09

wouldnt you love to have paid 37p for these in the rights issue?

[hybrasil] 06/3/2009 15:10

this has to be good value at these prices (24p)?

[agreeable] 13/10/2008 09:56

why dont they admit it, the strategy is flawed they are now need to sell off the Crown jewels to stay in business, meanwhile they raise money at prices which are bound to dilute shareholders. management should resign and hand over to people who understand what shareholders want

[hybrasil] 07/10/2008 08:02

pretty disastrous fund raising

[makingheaps] 06/8/2008 18:04

Last published NAV 118p and since then the rents that have been reviewed have increased by 4.6%. So we trade at a discount to assets of 30% and there is no value at all in the new pharmacy and GP practices. Seems unbelievable to me. However nothing willl change until they clarify what is meant by raising additional equity.

[nickcduk] 17/6/2008 08:47

Does seem as though overhang has cleared. Expect a sharp move on Friday as index trackers start piling in. Should be worth 5%+.

[grigor] 16/5/2008 11:36

Polyclinic rollout means it's 'survival of the fittest' for practices

[grigor] 13/5/2008 20:09

Making a new low

This is on my watch list of real estate, house building and construction shares

Should benefit from the push for polyclinics which will require funding

[salpara111] 13/5/2008 14:31

seems like a decent business, not clear why they would need a rights issue?
Anyone got an idea?
Have been tempted since it crossed the 100p line but there just doesnt seem to be a bottom here.

[grigor] 10/5/2008 11:45

Fears of a dilutive equity issue by Assura, the operator of GP surgeries, made it the worst mid-sized casualty, down 6½p to 95p. Investec has predicted said recently that Assura would need to issue new shares before March next year.

[stuart14] 06/5/2008 09:56

8.08p or 7.98%. Looks like Ex Div Sept but no sure.

[h4rsh2] 06/5/2008 09:48

Stuart...wots the divi and when is it going ex divi...???

[stuart14] 05/5/2008 08:08

The dividend is making this look attractive. At bottom on the channel too.

[nickcduk] 30/4/2008 11:51

As per usual my comments put the kiss of death on any rise we had going this morning. Sell side activity on the order book suggests there is still more than 1 seller unloading. Situation isn't likely to improve until that changes.

[nickcduk] 30/4/2008 09:52

Not sure it has a huge amount to fall from here. What we do have is a couple of large sellers desperate to get out. They tend to take whatever buy volume is available on L2 as soon as it appears so that the other doesn't grab it. A mild respite so far this morning suggests we could be down to a single large seller being left. He is relatively easy to spot as he puts his lots up in blocks of 3600. Once cleared we should have some upside as long as markets don't plummet.

Results are out in early June. Hopefully that will be enough to garner some interest and move the shares higher. Failing that they will be booted out of the 350 in June and that will no doubt create a decent opportunity to sell out on the spike in volume.

[hybrasil] 29/4/2008 13:16

looks as if it could have quite a a way to fall yet

[grigor] 21/4/2008 21:30

It's falling

You should change your name :-)