Assura Share Discussion Threads

[scburbs] 19/9/2009 09:44

"09 September 2009

Assura Coventry has been selected as preferred provider to run the Broad Lane Surgery in Tile Hill, Coventry following a competitive tendering process led by NHS Coventry.

The GP practice was subject to competitive tender following the tragic death of GP Dr John O'Brien, who had run the family practice for more than 30 years with his wife Dianne.

Assura Coventry will run the practice in addition to the popular Coventry NHS Healthcare and Walk-in Centre on Stoney Stanton Road, which has treated over 23,000 patients and registered over 500 patients since opening its doors in April of this year."

[scburbs] 19/9/2009 09:42

"14 September 2009

Doctors and staff from Holywell Medical Group, patient group representatives, civic dignitaries and members of NHS Derbyshire County gathered on Stubbing Lane, Chesterfield recently for an official stone laying ceremony at the site of the forthcoming £3.5m state-of-the-art health centre that will bring much needed modern health facilities for local patients.

Paul Holmes, local MP for Chesterfield and patient at the Holywell Medical Group for over 30 years, led the ceremony marking the opening stages of building work on the Centre which is being provided by Assura, a leading specialist in primary care premises and services provision, along with its development partner LSP Developments and local contractor Jaybuild.

...

When completed in early 2010, the new building will provide modern, purpose built and spacious accommodation for GPs, nurse practitioners, nurses and related health professionals from the Holywell Medical Group.

...

An on site, integrated pharmacy will also be available which will increase convenience and choice by enabling patients to pick up prescriptions immediately after consultation with their doctor.

Assura development manager, Amanda Horley, said: "We are delighted to see the progress of building works on what will be a fantastic new health centre. We have worked closely with the GPs and local community to ensure that the building both meets local requirements and is locally desired."

[explorer88] 16/9/2009 15:36

i've added a few more too ...

[simon gordon] 16/9/2009 10:16

After too much faffing about two weeks ago I bought some shares this morning.

[scburbs] 16/9/2009 09:27

Nickcduk,

Good luck with TSCS. Might have a bit more of a look when I get a chance.

I have added a few more AGR shares on the recent pullback and will look to continue to add around this level or lower.

[nickcduk] 16/9/2009 09:10

Thanks for the analysis scburbs. TSCS will benefit on the income side by tendering for that debt. Their portfolio isn't too badly placed. They have a lot of discount retail space which is currently pretty popular. There aren't too many REITS trading on chunky discounts any more. Larger ones are on pretty eye watering premiums. I have heavily short the larger caps so for me TCSC is a hedge against some of that exuberance.

[need_2_b_brave] 16/9/2009 09:03

this dog of a share, will it ever go up

[scburbs] 09/9/2009 06:58

Morning Nickcduk,

I would take a close look at TCSC's adjusted NAV (note 15). They appear to have marked their debenture to market. This is not something I have seen other companies do in their adjusted NAV. Whilst they have done a tender offer post year end, as the markets have improved it has become difficult to do a successful discounted tender offer (see Segro/Invista UK Trust).

The most useful adjusted NAV looks like 219p (i.e. 202p plus 17p tender profit). This makes the discount look less attractive (compared to others) given TCSC is in shopping centres and voids are increasing.

Not one for me at the moment (looks more expensive and more risky than AGR/PSPI), but still attractive if there is a bounce in values.

[nickcduk] 09/9/2009 06:42

scburbs

Agreed that it should be significantly higher but 35p is the near term target. AGR pencilled down to have their AGM today so we may get a statement later on today. TCSC figures looked ok to me this morning. Had been waiting for the accounts to get a handle on their debt situation but it seems ok. May try and pick up a few. Have you managed to have a look at them? Any thoughts?

[scburbs] 08/9/2009 20:54

Evening Nickcduk,

Given the property is similar to PHP's and is on 17 years leases 81% met by NHS then I would have thought it should be trading significantly above 35p (that looks a likely initial target for resistance though).

No material risk of voids and rental levels continuing to increase at 4%. Very different situation to high street property.

[nickcduk] 08/9/2009 20:50

Hoping for some similar chunky volume tomorrow to make a further dent in that overhang. If AGR had traded in line with its property peers then the shares should be trading above 35p. Im not sure I would totally rule out corporate action. If you were a potential bidder would you wait until after Government policy had been outlined and pay a huge premium or would you get in whilst uncertainty was at its greatest and get away with a much lower price.

[scburbs] 08/9/2009 10:42

Excellent move this morning. Hopefully there are some good gains for us all here.

Share price is massively underpinned by the some of the strongest property assets in the UK. Yield expansion in this area has ended and prices are rising slightly. The rental growth of 4% being achieved is also improving these yields and should increase capital values even in a flat market.

Market cap is applying a huge negative valuation to the Pharmacy and GPCo businesses such that risk reward here looks exceptional and plenty of scope to double or multibag.

[explorer88] 08/9/2009 10:02

scburbs / nickcduk - good morning. thanks for bringing this share to my attention recently. I like the look of this company and agree with simongordon that there is the potential for share price to rise from 25p to about £1 by 2011, with limited downside due to assets.

invested in AGR this morning.

good luck.

[nickcduk] 08/9/2009 09:11

Bit of interest this morning. Volume isn't much to write home about so I don't think it is anything much more than a few fund managers returning to their desks and noticing that AGR has been spannered. Welcome rise all the same.

[scburbs] 06/9/2009 17:57

Another one from the development pipeline which has come to fruition. The property pipeline should be largely built out by now with these assets now generating valuable profits for the group on secure long term leases. Exactly the short of property assets that have been increasing their value lately.

"Local residents, registered patients and staff were invited to a sneak preview of the much anticipated, state-of-the-art Weston Lane Centre for Healthy Living this week, following the recent completion of construction work.

The brand new £5m health centre opened its doors yesterday to give visitors an opportunity to have a look around the new building before it opens in early September.

...

Doors are expected to open to patients in September and an official opening, led by local MP John Denham, will take place from 1pm-2.30pm on 2 October 2009. Any patients with enquiries about the new GP surgery at the Weston Lane Centre for Healthy Living should contact the Weston Lane Surgery on 023 8044 9913."

[simon gordon] 04/9/2009 14:11

scburbs,

Good stuff!

When I looked at AGR yesterday I thought they could go eventually to a quid. This theory was based on Pharmacies becoming profitable and GPCo moving from a loss and picking up plenty of new business as the Tories speed up outsourcing. With a solid income generating property portfolio and a rapidly growing outsourced medical business is how I saw a quid by 2011.

If this fantasy doesn't come off there is always a chance the board are ousted and a new team come in and strip the business back, or a hostile takeover does the business. Share price goes to say 40p.

Downside - they continue to bleed capital as GPCo is a failure. Share flatlines and becomes a zombie as no catalysts are generated.

[scburbs] 04/9/2009 13:52

This seems to be backed up the Lloyds Pharmacy openings in Hospitals.

"We have seen a marked shift in emphasis by nearly all of the main UK pharmacy multiples away from opening traditional high street pharmacies towards sourcing pharmacies that are co-located within medical centres. Given both our expertise in securing new pharmacy licences and our unique positioning as a developer of primary care premises and operator of integrated pharmacies, we believe we are well positioned within this marketplace."

[scburbs] 04/9/2009 13:48

"Community pharmacy with a difference now open at hospital

Lloydspharmacy providing extended community healthcare services at Teddington Memorial Hospital

A new Lloydspharmacy has opened within Teddington Memorial Hospital, increasing access to a range of healthcare services.

Lloydspharmacy Teddington Memorial Hospital is slightly different from a traditional pharmacy. As well as dispensing prescriptions, the pharmacy is working closely with NHS Richmond to deliver to the local population a range of free healthcare services. The pharmacy will also offer an express repeat prescription and delivery service."

[July 2009]

[scburbs] 04/9/2009 13:47

Things seem to have changed a bit since the iii post!

"Retail pharmacy to open at hospital

A community retail pharmacy is set to open at Hexham General Hospital this summer.

Northumbria Healthcare NHS Foundation Trust has agreed with Lloydspharmacy to open the shop in the Tynedale Patients' Centre in August.

The Lloyds pharmacy will be located next to the Burn Brae and Selegate GP practices, adjacent to the east entrance of the hospital, and will be for members of the public. It will be separate to the hospital's existing pharmacy facility which provides medication and services for the patients of the hospital."

[scburbs] 04/9/2009 13:37

Simon Gordon,

It is an interesting post, but wasn't it made slightly redundant by the news in June that there was some value?

"5 non-core pharmacies and 8 pharmacy opportunities or licences divested or in solicitors' hands for a total of £5.5m"



Given the current share price, a valuation of nil for the pharmacy division would be fine by me. However, it seems to be doing better than that and recent trading statement was positive.

"Q1 pharmacy revenues were ahead of budget and in our wholly owned pharmacies, like for like prescription item numbers were up 9 per cent compared to the same period last year."

[scburbs] 03/9/2009 21:23

The uncertainty over GPCo's must be the problem here. However, the recent IMS was positive on the revenue ramp up starting. Costs have been cut and it is worth remembering that the GPCo costs include bid costs.

Assura have a very powerful shareholder list (at 31 May 2009).

Invesco 29.26%
Artemis 11.91%
Aviva 7.44%
Jupiter 5.51%
Legal & General 5.03%
Moore Capital Management 4.58%
Lazard Asset Mgmt 4.1%
Burrell 4.05%
F&C Asset Mgmt 4%
EBT 3.48%

Total 79.36%

Given the free float is limited I suspect selling by a large shareholder is forcing down the price. As recent newsflow looks positive this may well be a forced seller and once they are done the price should bounce sharply. Artemis seem to have gone up to 12% recently so don't seem to be the seller.

I can't immediately tell who the seller is. I thought it was L&G, but there fall below 5% only seems to be down to a slight increase in total shares.