Assura Share Discussion Threads

[skyship] 21/6/2011 14:56

Hmm... Regular poster here, Hybrasil, alerted me to these last week @ 39p.

Obviously missed a quick turn; but at anything over 40p they seem a tad expensive compared to the likes of property plays IFD & MCKS; especially with L&G still reducing.

With IFD & MCKS, in both cases the yields are higher (IFD 9.3%, MCKS 6.6%), the NAV discounts higher (IFD 34%, MCKS 43%) and the LTVs lower (IFD 37%; MCKS 43%).

Also I don't see why AGR should be trading at a premium to NAV, the comparisons being drawn to PHP & MedicX, rather than PSPI.

Could be right to be holding them all of course; but on balance, still need to be convinced.

[goliard] 21/6/2011 14:42

Interesting to see that despite the excellent news the price is still low. I think this is mainly due to the trackers selling because of the FTSE index reclassification. I guess they have no choice, but I am delighted that they have pushed the price down. Picked up another 50,000.

[calahan] 21/6/2011 14:10

Here's the relevant quote from the results where it mentions the option of a buy-back. (for those who were asking)

"Net assets (basic and diluted) grew 35.3% to GBP220.1 million (2010: GBP162.7 million) equivalent to 54.0p per share (2010: 53.1p). If this is adjusted with the mark to market value of the Group's interest rate derivatives added back, in accordance with European Public Real Estate guidance, then the net asset value per share (basic and diluted) is 59.8p (2010: 61.6p). Either measure is substantially above the Group's current share price of 38.5p at close on 17June 2011. If the Company's shares continue to trade at a discount to net asset value, the Board will consider using its authority to buy back shares to enhance shareholder value."

[goliard] 21/6/2011 13:42

scburbs, agreed. To my mind 57-62p is the real value here, but it should be at the top end because they will have development profit on completed schemes unlike PHP where they just buy completed developments. They may also get something for the LIFT consulting business that they are selling. Probably only a few million.

Also, PHP and MedicX pay 0.75% (approx) of their portfolio value every year to their management companies. Assura's cost base is much lower.

Some people still think this is a medical services company and that is why the re-rating in the share price hasn't happened. They should change their name back to the old one - "Medical Property Investment Fund"!!

[scburbs] 21/6/2011 13:27

If you strip out the remaining property development goodwill (and this is very prudent as this division is valuable) in order to compare on a like for like basis with the PHP and MedicX NAVs then the AGR NAV is around 54p (being 10% off the adjusted NAV re: the property development goodwill).

PHP trades at around a 5% premium and MedicX around a 15% premium. Equivalent price for AGR is 57-62p. This is ascribing no value to valuable property development division!

[goliard] 21/6/2011 13:26

I still think the most likely outcome now is a bid from either PHP or MedicX. If that happened it would probably be a share deal based on respective NAVs, so an equivalent price of around 60p. In the meantime there is a steady and growing 5% yield if you buy at current prices and quite a bit of cash in the bank too.

All they need is for long term rates to go above 4.59% and then the SWAP is neutral, so that shouldn't take too long. It is non-cash anyway, so they can afford to wait.

There are lots of people chasing penny shares who don't understand investing. Assura is different. If we get 2.75p dividend next year (should be easy) then this would be a near 7% yield on the current price, and, unlike MedicX, they don't pay a big chunk of the dividend from money they have just raised from shareholders, it is paid from real profit.

I am happy taking the income and waiting for the bid.

[goliard] 21/6/2011 13:15

Either in CEO's or Chairman's statement, but it is in the rns. They clearly think the share price is too low.

[felix99] 21/6/2011 12:16

in RNS - they said they would buy back if discount to NAV stayed

[kingdiddy] 21/6/2011 11:36

Goliard where does it mention buyback potential?

[scburbs] 21/6/2011 11:29

Presentation gives more detail on the NAV impact of the Pharmacy sale. Book value of assets is £31.3m against the gross disposal proceeds of £39.3m.

Average rent increase in the year was 4.3%.

Profit now being made from the pipeline and they are indicating that any surplus land sites are expected to be sold at a profit (P11)

Cost cutting progressing and Pharmacy staff together with head office people transferring to purchaser so no redundancy costs.

Dividend set to be progressive.

[felix99] 21/6/2011 10:29

whats complicated about the accounts ?

Its now a property co with a cast iron first rate covenanted landlord - the govt - and rents upwardly rising some linked to RPI too - about 17% think they said )

NAV is 54p or 60p depending which figure you look at - and the company is currently selling at a 30% discount to NAV if you take the 60p figure. Yield 5% + at this price.

Only minor fly in ointment is the interest rate swap which they are going to buy out of to effectively refinance at lower rates currentyl available. It will cost but I expect they will renegotiate the lending facilities on mass and clear the swap and lock in some lovely low interest rates for the future.

- its like putting your money in the bank with the govt yielding over 5% with opportunity for the NAV to close for capital upside.

What more does any income investor want or trader? Can;t understand who is selling here unless its index sellers still.

Short term I think 48p or so is a fair price myself and then onwards once all refinancing done.

Its like the govt going to a bank to mortgage its property with a 60% LTV - tell me who would not want to refinance that at a decent rate?

[divinausa1] 21/6/2011 09:59

nope H i will give a gander, have you looked ilx results soon pe of 6 yield of 5% and a growth stock :) leader in its niche market

[kingdiddy] 21/6/2011 09:56

24.3% profit margin on revs is phenomenal!!

[hectorp] 21/6/2011 09:04

thanks DIV.

o/t
Have you had a look at VAL?

[divinausa1] 21/6/2011 09:00

GL H



Assura net profits jump 185%

[hectorp] 21/6/2011 08:24

Yes very good news.

Thanks to DIV for pointing it out to me.
H.

[scburbs] 21/6/2011 08:13

Excellent news, I have been busy to picking up a few more. A great sale of the pharmacy division making this look more and more like PHP and MedicX (both with much higher ratings).

Share price reaction this morning is misplaced (i.e. not rising enough). The sale of the pharmacy division and the share buyback commitment if it stays below NAV should see it continue to move up.

[horndean eagle] 21/6/2011 08:12

Accounts still a bit too complicated for me to try and unravel at this stage so will be relying on broker notes for where profits are forecast going forward. 55p shouldn't be too difficult to achieve.

[goliard] 21/6/2011 08:08

Managed to pick up another 70,000 in the first few minutes and I can realistically see these going to 55p.

[goliard] 21/6/2011 08:06

An excellent deal on the pharmacy division and also a 1.25p final dividend. Board also saying that the shares are undervalued and that they may use their authority to do a buy-back. This should get some press in the coming months.

Big question now is how long before they merge with PHP or get bought out?

[horndean eagle] 21/6/2011 07:53

Now its shot of its pharmacy division I see no reason for it not to trade at a premium to NAV like PHP. The move to the real estate sector will help on that score. Welcome aboard David.

[davidosh] 13/6/2011 09:00

I have joined you guys this morning. Looks an overdone sell off to me and I like high yielding and fairly secure dividend plays.

[hybrasil] 13/6/2011 08:21

I know the dividend at interims was 1p. Any broker views as to what the final will be?

[horndean eagle] 10/6/2011 09:50

FTSE index changes are creating forced selling.