Asiamet Resources Share Discussion Threads

[mount teide] 27/9/2018 11:41

jailbird - Macquarie's chart Fig 1 - showing where the various commodities are in the latest cycle is too simplistic - and simply behind the curve with respect to the Copper market.

With LME copper stocks having been at/close to decade lows since 2016 - to classify Copper as currently in a category with high stocks and strong supply reaction when the market was in marginal deficit in 2017 and again this year, and after pricing before the recent correction having increased some 75% from the H1/2016 lows is simply incorrect and misleading.

The category where Lead and Zinc is found: Supply Constraint / Capex Lagging / Pricing moving to encourage supply - would in my opinion much closer resemble current reality for the Copper market. The Lead and Zinc markets currently are probably a little ahead of Copper in the new cycle.

[arf dysg] 27/9/2018 10:58

Even better, if you use capitalisation (example with Ts), ADVFN is quite happy about it:

[horneblower] 27/9/2018 10:28

Thanks, Jailbird. That's useful.

Note: you need to change hxxps to https for it to work as a URL.

[jailbird] 27/9/2018 09:54

Anyone posted this here..pinched from HZM thread
Great chart from latest Maguire's report


hxxps://www.businessinsider.com.au/commodity-price-outlook-macquarie-2018-9/amp

[snickerdog] 27/9/2018 07:59

From Kevin on Twitter #copper "only if every single copper project currently in development or being studied for feasibility is brought online before then, including most discoveries that have not yet reached the evaluation stage, the market could meet projected demand."https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/What-Peak-Oil-Demand-Copper-And-3D-Printing-Have-In-Common.html

[mr roper] 26/9/2018 20:10

Agree, Charles. I’d be delighted

[charles clore] 26/9/2018 19:21

If it was a small placing say, up to £10m it would add another 100m shares. I can handle that.

[mr roper] 26/9/2018 19:13

Either way, q4 is gonna be pretty exciting

[zeusfurla] 26/9/2018 18:45

Just a few comments after re-reading yesterday's Interim Report to 30 June.

Net cash at 30 June - $3.2m (current Assets less Current Liabilities)
Operating costs - approx. $1m per month (if January to June trend continues)

This leaves an estimated net cash position as best I can tell from the accounts of $0.5m at best by the end of the month ie fund-raising is needed in the short-term. I'd expect this to be part of the imminent RNS. The Directors say in the report that funding will follow on from:

• The Company expects to finalise the Feasibility Study for the BKM Project in the second half of 2018 which when completed is anticipated to support the development of the project and in turn raising of additional funding;
• The Company is currently in discussions with financial institutions and strategic investors for potential debt and/or equity funding; and
• To date the Company has funded its activities through issuance of equity securities and it is expected that the Group will be able to fund its future activities through further issuances of equity securities.

I remain highly positive about the medium-term for Asiamet although would have preferred some better advance planning on cash flow and a quicker BFS outcome.

[mr roper] 26/9/2018 18:34

Can't think of any placing that didn't dilute

[chatta] 26/9/2018 16:44

What affect would a 10p placing have on the sp?

[shareideas1] 26/9/2018 16:27

Price action has 10p placing written all over it...

[mr roper] 26/9/2018 14:53

Think there was a 250m offer back in the freeport days from memory.

[jackbal] 26/9/2018 14:51

would be lovely and I certainly wouldn’t grumble but why would anyone pay $200 mil for 40% of specific part of ARS when the whole lot is valued at less than £100 mil.

I believe that £100 mil undervalues the potential here but not as much as that.

Also the buyer would know exactly what Ars paid for it less than 12 months ago.

[mr roper] 26/9/2018 14:50

20p I reckon

[uapatel] 26/9/2018 13:42

Interesting thought that Mr R. Considering our current MCap, wonder what that will send the share price to!

[arhaych] 26/9/2018 13:38

Would not grumble about that at all Mr R, given how little we picked up that extra 40% for!

[mr roper] 26/9/2018 13:34

Agree, hb. The 20m will fill the gap until bkm is up and generating cashlow or as HG points out, my preference would be sell 40% of it for 200m and we're off to the races

[highly geared] 26/9/2018 13:25

Agreed Hornblower , we just can’t wait until 2021. My preference is to give away some of our 80% , bring someone in with deep pockets and get a plan in place to aggressively drill out and scope the majority of what’s there in 2019-20 and get a BFS done on the full development by 2023.

You can imagine the price then with BKM in full swing, other parts of KSK drilled and resourced and Beutong sitting as a proven tier 1 world class copper development asset ready to finance into production...

[horneblower] 26/9/2018 13:19

Mr R, There is still a huge amount of drilling to be done to fully scope Beutong. That is why we need the starter mine at BKM asap.

[jackbal] 26/9/2018 13:10

It certainly has felt frustrating this year (at least it has to me).

Sometimes I think the weight of expectation on this share creates extra frustration. Almost like a sportsman with an extremely high transfer price. Even when they are doing ok we want to see more!

One thing I will certainly be very keen to see is the strike price on the options that I expect will be awarded to some of the recent additions to the team (don’t remember seeing any options for Heaton yet).

In the past many options have been granted at decent premiums to market price. I would expect/hope that continues.

HG, thanks for your comments

[highly geared] 26/9/2018 12:58

Jackbal, your comments are valid and make sense. The BFS will be welcomed but what matters is getting BKM financed. Then and assuming mine build runs smoothly, the market can start to value ARS share of BKM on a prospective earnings multiple basis, based on production targets and the CU price.

Equally, but as importantly, it will show the market they can deliver right through to production, ergo, Beutong should be valued more highly based on execution of BKM.

I keep repeating this but ARS remains a long 3-5 year play but value is being generated now that should see us multiples of the share price come 2022-23.

I just don’t see a bid coming soon at anything like the price the board will accept as Tony and Peter ,in my view, have a 10 year plan for this through to a very wealthy retirement. Equally , they need until the end of 2019 to deliver a scoping study/ PEA on Beutong. Hopefully, with more drilling on BKZ, BKW, BKS and Baroi , late 2019 should tell us what we have and give a much better idea of what the totality might be worth.

It can be boring and frustrating holding shares at times but the big picture makes it worth it here.