Asiamet Resources Share Discussion Threads

[highly geared] 25/9/2018 08:23

Well, we now have several brokers out there with price targets 20-25p range.
The market continues to price us around 10p. The market is right as that’s the only price we can get if we sell or buy shares.

BKM BFS is imminent ( next week for me). Copper appears to have stabilised and the portents for long term demand is bullish.

If anyone has a time machine and can pop along to 2022, let me know the price!

[billyrayvalentine] 25/9/2018 08:17

...AD, FYI ;-)

"What’s notable about Huawei’s second-placing is that it is effectively frozen out of the North American market."

[snickerdog] 25/9/2018 07:31

ADVfn won't allow the link in full so here it is below. We now have three broker covering and this is the first non house stock to do so. Hopefully Berenberg too and that one should time well


“Asiamet’;s strategy is on the near-term development of BKM and BKZ and then the development of Beutong, which is, in our view, the key asset of most interest, which will place Asiamet as a major copper player”

Asiamet Resources PLC’s (LON:ARS) Beutong asset in Indonesia has the potential to turn the explorer into a “major copper player”, says Arden Partners.

The City broker has called Beutong a “world class asset”, comparable in size to SolGold plc’s (LON:SOLG) but with the advantage of being accessible from the surface.

READ: Asiamet's copper assets undervalued, say brokers
That leaves it amenable to open pit mining at a lower cost than a comparable underground operation, while it also benefits from strong transport links.

Beutong has a current resource of 510mln tonnes (Mt) of ore at 0.59% copper (Cu) equivalent. That is based on drilling to 500 metres (m), but recent results showed holes reaching 607m were still hitting copper.

More exploratory drilling at deeper depths is planned, where the company expects to see an increase in both copper and gold grades.

Arden notes that Beutong is the “jewel in the crown for Asiamet” but adds that it is the long-term focus for Asiamet; the near-term focus revolves around its smaller BKM copper-gold project and BKS polymetallic deposit.

BKM first up though
A bankable feasibility study for BKM, its most advanced project, is due to be delivered over the next couple of weeks, before going into development in the second half of 2019.

“We currently forecast c.4k tonnes of cathode production for 2020E, and then c.25ktpa (thousand tonnes per annum) of copper cathode from thereon for the remainder of the length of mine, eight further years,” read Arden’s note to clients.

The plan is to use the cash flows generated from BKM to fund the development of BKZ.

Asiamet reckons further drilling will demonstrate the extent of the system and increase the metal content at BKZ, which it believes could be part of a suite of porphyries.

Only after developing BKZ will Beutong, which is about six times the size of BKM, become the main focus for Asiamet.

On the lookout for Indonesian partner
To help finance all of this, Arden reckons the company has a “few options” in terms of funding.

The broker believes an Indonesian partner would be “preferred route”, minimising dilution at the project financing stage.

It would also satisfy Indonesian government regulations which require that an Indonesian local must own 51% of all mining projects after the tenth year of production.

Asiamet shares currently trade just below 10p, but Arden has a punchy 24p target price on the stock, “highlighting how undervalued we believe the stock is”.

In terms of what could drive the share price towards that figure in the near term, Arden highlights the bankable feasibility study due by the end of the third quarter/ early fourth quarter.

It also looks to further drill results from Beutong and KSK towards the end of the year.

Copper price to strengthen
Of course, all of this is irrelevant if copper prices tank. Thankfully, Arden doesn’t see that happening.

“We see copper as a standout medium to long-term investment,” read the opening salvo from their 119-page report on the sector.

The red metal is often said to be the bellwether of the global economy because it’s used in so many everyday applications, from wiring to piping, to household utensils to roofing.

READ: Copper price well supported by economic fundamentals
On the demand side, it’s all about Chinese infrastructure, new technologies and the “green revolution,” says Arden.

On the demand side, more than a decade of underinvestment means that the slightest shock to supply, like a strike at the giant Escondida mine in Chile, is likely to send tremors through the market and set prices on an upward trajectory.

Arden reckons China is about to go into a major “growth and regenerative phase” that will support the copper price above US$3.00 per pound in the long-term.

[snickerdog] 25/9/2018 07:12

Arden praises Asiamet’s “world class” Beutong copper asset as it sets bullish 24p target

[...]

[arf dysg] 24/9/2018 16:24

europa79, if you're trading in a certain Chinese mobile-phone company when American sanctions hit, you could be on a Huawei to Hell!

[mount teide] 24/9/2018 16:16

Reading between the lines and with an eye on future finance, i suspect the management have probably taken advantage of the first copper price correction (June-Aug) of the new copper market cycle to give themselves a little further time to complete the BFS, in order to deliver it into a recovering copper price story rather than into a falling price trend.

Some US copper producers looking to develop high operating cost prospects via equity finance reported that this route has seen the door firmly shut in their faces following the correction in copper pricing.

As a potentially low cost operator ARS will not be so constrained but it's always easier when looking for finance, to be operating in a sector with a tail wind behind it at the time.

[tektonik] 24/9/2018 16:12

Yep, will be hanging on to what will seem extraordinarily cheap shares when they're worth many, many multiples of today's value in years to come.

[charles clore] 24/9/2018 16:03

tek - I did the same last week. Our time will come... someday

[tektonik] 24/9/2018 15:41

Topped up today, Charles. Another sub-10p addition for me.

[charles clore] 24/9/2018 15:39

Best to keep some dry powder in case an opportunity presents itself later this week in the form of impatient PIs spooked by shaky deadlines!

[simoore89] 24/9/2018 14:54

If it doesn't land by end of the week.. how low do we see this going?

[mr roper] 24/9/2018 14:27

Kaz and Caml starting to shift. We'll be next as copper recovers

[ifthecapfits] 24/9/2018 14:06

Hmm. Think it will be a rocket ship to Mars - when the news lands! That's what I'm here for.....sell half and let the rest ride.

[europa79] 24/9/2018 14:04

We're here for the Stairway To Heaven rather than the Highway To Hell you get in so many other companies!!

[tektonik] 24/9/2018 13:59

Hmm, not sure what to make on all of this BFS/DFS chatter here and my views are not aimed at anyone here in particular.

When the RNS was released on the 10th of August, they would have been very confident of being able to deliver it 'soon', as indicated by the use of "Q3". Critically, the date provided was a time frame, an estimation - not a solid date. There's still over 4 days left before the literal time frame has elapsed.

Let's also be pragmatic, the start of the "Q4" period is always 1 working day after the end of the "Q3" period. Assuming a missed "Q3" date equates to a delivery date of December 31st (roughly 3 months away from Q3) would be a weak assumption to make.

The process is enormously complex - having to line up a large volume of ducks to a very very tight line from a finite amount of resources. I admire the boldness for the BOD to acknowledge that they needed more time to get things in an exceptional condition - time they should be granted and afforded by shareholders as a result of their performance and track record YTD.

Long term holders should not be concerned if it does not arrive this week. We've all interpreted the timeline in our own ways and have our own expectations - great - we all want to see results and it is good to hold the team accountable for their actions, it's our money after all. However, I feel a) questioning of the dates now is redundant b) BFS landing +/- 4 weeks of Q3 would still be a reasonable. Any longer than this and I'd like an update from the company.

[arf dysg] 24/9/2018 13:04

I thought that DFS was "Definitive Feasibility Study" and it was the official term, while BFS was "Bankable Feasibility Study" (a more casual term) meaning it's good enough that you can put it in the bank, i.e. use it to start all kinds of interesting negotiations including those about money. If someone knows better, please tell me.

Yes, I did mean 2018 (twenty eighteen), not twenty nineteen.


Are they going to make a best-selling super-smash top-40 single about the DFS? It could be a re-working of n-n-n-n-nineteen.

[pyglet] 24/9/2018 13:03

There it is in Black and White - *expected*

[shareideas1] 24/9/2018 13:00

Per the 10th August RNS..."Asiamet is pleased to advise that the Bankable Feasibility Study (BFS) for the Beruang Kanan Main (BKM) Copper project located in central Kalimantan, Indonesia is nearing completion and is expected to be finalised and delivered by the current quarter."

[2lb] 24/9/2018 12:54

Been calling it for a while that it won't land in Q3 as promised many weeks ago.

Whilst its not out of the question, I think the clues have been there in the interviews which repeatedly emphasise "getting it 100% right" as opposed to "hitting the expected timescale" - even though, yet again, it expectation was self imposed.

Whilst in many ways I applaud the sentiment - each time this happens, a little more credibility and integrity is chipped away.

Either way - we've now gifted control to traders and speculators for the short term so there is the real missed opportunity.

Also accepted that in the long term is should make little difference but in the short term sentiment still plays a big part for Asiamet.....

[adorling] 24/9/2018 12:47

Talk about a missed opportunity if BOD don’t deliver this week. 4 days to go (so will give them benefit of the doubt until Friday 7:01am) and all the market factors working in our favour for creating extraordinary value in next 2-3 years.

[horneblower] 24/9/2018 12:36

Mr P. It makes sense to me.
If they had said "in 2018" we would be expecting it Dec 2018 so, if it arrived in November 2018, we would be pleasantly surprised.

[knobbly] 24/9/2018 12:34

Mr Piggy. You've been on the bacon too long.

"Maybe the board should have just said "DFS in 2018" then we would have been pleasantly surprised when it arrived in November."

ARS previously stated that the BFS *should* be published by end of 2018 Q3 (this week). Does that help with Arfs comment?

Personally I'd be surprised to see it before mid October. So long as they make it a good'un then that's fine with me.

[mrpiggy] 24/9/2018 12:23

Ok but did he mean 2019, you know how Arf is a fickler for detail (otherwise the post didn’t make much sense).