Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[fenners66] 18/3/2020 12:16

We have been here before in terms of share price.
When you have held the shares as long as I have - the share price on any given day does not really matter.

It went up recently and I stated on here I would be happier with a rise to Broker estimates more slowly - over years.

What does matter is that the company takes care of business.
Continues to grow responsibly , looks after the balance sheet, and pays higher dividends to the OWNERS.

At the end of the day shareholders OWN the business and they let the management run it. However most of the market has forgotten that.

Shareholders are a mere inconvenience - sometimes getting in the way of the management looking to maximise their own earnings.

Thus if I was an owner of a private business I would expect the profits.
As a PLC owner I still expect a reasonable slice of the profits.

I don't want some mathematical construct to justify EPS and support the share price temporarily.
After all which of us saw this share price coming ?

[bracke] 18/3/2020 12:03

Good day fenners

"But you had to Sell to make anything out of it."
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There was plenty of opportunity to sell when the share price started dropping but no one likes to sell when the share price has dropped. The 'hope' is that the share price will recover but a basic knowledge of charts suggested otherwise.

I note that the buybacks continue.

The thought now is not so much about how far the share price will fall but how far will it recover and how long will it take to do so.

[fenners66] 18/3/2020 11:34

No they got it wrong.
Any share price can do well when the market is racing ahead.
There duty is to look beyond that and anticipate the worst and ensure that the company is prepared.
If it never happens so be it.
But it just did.

ALL the buy backs of the last few years mean nothing to the share price Today.
The long term holders have NOTHING to show for them but increased debt!

Sure the ones who sold , johnny come latelys making a few quid made some, traders made some.
But you had to Sell to make anything out of it.

Reducing debt and paying higher dividends was always the way to reward shareholders.

I still believe the enterprise value of the company would have been Higher without debt and the interest and periodic refinancing costs that comes with.

As Enterprise value is debt + equity so lower debt means higher equity. With a massive safety net built in.

I never rejected spending on bolt on-acquisitions.

But spending based on reducing profits whilst engineering higher EPS was false!

[optomistic] 18/3/2020 10:50

Still doing the buy backs and as usual not reducing the debt. I would think that reducing debt would build strength into the company...but then they never did reduce debt much and still they got to £28 so maybe they got it right?

[rescuer] 18/3/2020 10:01

jeeeze - what a fall off on AHT,

hope you are all safe

[hatfullofsky] 18/3/2020 09:38

Debt concerns ?

[fenners66] 18/3/2020 09:29

URI are supporting the shale industry so that will be their problem

[hydrogen economy] 18/3/2020 09:00

COVID no doubt hurting but is much of AHT's business connected with oil & Gas? Most of the US activity is in shale which is mainly in N Dakota/Montana (Bakken) and West Texas (Permian). AHT's FY2019 slides showed no activity in the Bakken area and not much in W Texas. Energy/oil is not mentioned in the FY results or slides, I would have thought oil price is not such a big factor.

Lots of big events cancelled, AHT provides various services to these, construction will probably slow or in some cases stop. Hopefully when the disease stabilizes there will be some catch-up and the massive stimulus may spawn some new infrastructure projects.

[hatfullofsky] 18/3/2020 08:30

There are 2 crisis hitting AHT - COVID-19 and POO

[amaretto1] 17/3/2020 10:25

All i can say to u .... is Chinease !! i watched u eating one once :-)

[amaretto1] 17/3/2020 10:16

Divi paying stocks Strong ones

[amaretto1] 17/3/2020 10:14

I'm buying ...look at the Hang Seng How quickly this can change .. imo

[fenners66] 17/3/2020 09:59

Agreed although no one could see the crisis coming - not having debt in times of crisis is just plain obvious.
Those of us whom have been around the block would just take this as read.
A younger generation that has known only good times cannot see the end to good times and hence gets caught out by the unexpected.
Shoe Zone (one of the first I guess) has just suspended payment of a final dividend.
AHT should suspend all buybacks now and ensure that dividends are still going to get paid.

[slogsweep] 17/3/2020 09:35

no buyers = no bottom

seen it before 10 years ago this was 50p I loaded up then and have reluctantly sold half now as it went through my stop loss at £20. Should have sold them all. I don't like the high debt and these wretched buy backs, I'd rather they got the debt down.

[amaretto1] 17/3/2020 07:46

Nov target still 30 ! Trump power :-)

[amaretto1] 17/3/2020 07:27

Charts to me looking like the end game here is 16 .. at some point Shoot me down, if u can't see that.

[amaretto1] 17/3/2020 07:14

My target was originally 4800 as posted on here.I'm revising to approx 4000 Dow 15000 . S+P 2000 I'm now dripping in ... FTSE Divi paying stocks... Not fussed about the bottom..One year hold minimum..Above is my thoughts only... DYOR.

[amaretto1] 16/3/2020 17:35

Today.. i was talking about the indices .. it was a good day.Volatility.

[yertiz] 16/3/2020 12:24

Which Monday, exactly?

[amaretto1] 13/3/2020 20:43

Will be better Monday !

[bracke] 13/3/2020 14:32

Good day fenners

I didn't trade it. Richer pickings on the indices.

[fenners66] 13/3/2020 13:32

Gap got filled - did you get some Bracke ?

[bracke] 13/3/2020 10:38

I am sooooo tempted. Get thee behind me Satan!

[fenners66] 13/3/2020 10:09

Everything being sold for margin calls.
Also we buy companies because we expect their share price to go higher, conversely sell when you expect everything to go lower.

There are some very high yielding (potentially) stocks available - so some will sell in order to buy them.

Maybe if we had lower debt , and better yield the share price would be stronger (who knows) - but we are back to share price being a product of supply and demand - which shows that the false market of buybacks is entirely temporary.

High debt is real though....

[jas964] 13/3/2020 09:03

I can understand Airlines and banks being pasted given the reasons behind this market "realignment"
I can also understand that in a general, global market correction most things will fall.
What I'm struggling with is the extent to which reasonably soundly run companies are being hit just as hard as companies that are more exposed to the current crisis.

I got out of airlines and banks pretty quickly but stocks like this I thought "they'll bounce when the market stops being a sheep" Looks like I got that one dead wrong"

Looking beyond CV hysteria and the proposed end of austerity infrastructure investment I would have expected stocks like this one and another I'm in (IBST - Bricks everybody needs bricks if there's going to be a big housebuilding program) to have weathered to storm a bit better. Clearly that hasn't happened, I guess its wait for the bottom now and pile in for the recovery ride.