Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[amaretto1] 04/3/2020 07:46

In short .... AHT share price is topping out at 30000 Aplant is treading water and is under pressure from rivals....very difficult UK Market.Laying out 25+ bananas for this dividend return... is not the futureBetter options out there ....Ie divi basis AV BP AIMO

[fenners66] 03/3/2020 22:32

perfido - isn't the point now - where is this going over the next 10 years.

Looking back is not going to help anyone get any wealthier from here.

AHT has matured and cannot expect that kind of return from now on.

EPS has grown from -ve to 144p (for 9 months) but the dividends have been getting further and further behind earnings.

As time has gone on we move from growth to income except AHT has not kept pace.
As we still expect growth albeit at a slower pace - why sell?

But if you need income AHT is paying no where near what it can.

If it demonstrated the need to invest in the business to grow some more so be it.

However they are flagging capital expenditure to decline and taking a punt on buying £500m more of AHT shares.

Dividends should be higher, not just improving notional EPS for directors incentive scheme judgements....

[perfido] 03/3/2020 20:12

We are talking about return on investment over 10 years to 12/2019

If you let me have your figures I'll certainly take a look.

Edit: It looks to me that Greggs return on investment (CAGR) for the decade is only around <>30%

[amaretto1] 03/3/2020 20:05

I'm also going on 20years AHT started the climb from 3p

[amaretto1] 03/3/2020 20:04

Why is not Greggs listed on it ?

[amaretto1] 03/3/2020 20:02

Don't understand ? ASOS went from 50p to near 80000pGreggs .... under 300p - to over 2000Plus dividends Aplant will be rebranded by end of March 2020 ... Sunbelt£1000 to a charity of your desire, if this fails to happen :-)

[amaretto1] 03/3/2020 19:29

U need to sell and invest in BP or Av

[perfido] 03/3/2020 18:13

Gentlemen,

All this moaning about dividends and, not to mention share buybacks, is unbecoming and missing the point.

For most of us, the important yardstick is return on investment, and of the 10 top performing shares in the FTSE 350 over the last decade, Ashtead has delivered the biggest return on investment - up by 3,461% over the ten years.

Ashtead delivered a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 43% over that period - staggeringly good.

It means that if you invested £1,000 in the company on the last day of the 2000s, you would be sitting on a cash pile of £35,611 on new Years Eve 2019.

Clearly a long term holding strategy has paid handsomely, and only the 'fly-by-night' transitory traders and scalpers could possibly have missed out as the price has fluctuated.

I agree with fenners, if you wanted to realise some of your gains, then selling down your holding as the price has risen exponentially would have more than made up for any disappointment in the level of dividends, which remember are taxed twice!

If anyone here has a company in their investment horizon that has delivered better returns over 10 years, I would be interested to know?
.

[bracke] 03/3/2020 12:49

Good day fenners

I understand your ire. The yield on this share is (I will be polite) poor, especially when the dividend cover is over 4.

I know that holders take the view that the share price has done well and is expected to do so but unless the shares are sold the gain is paper only and not realised. Recent events have provided an excellent opportunity to have sold, realised the gain with the opportunity of buying back at a lower price.

The company could easily double the dividend but they choose not to do so. They prefer to buyback shares with the intention of increasing the share price Thus encouraging holders to take their profit not from the dividend but by share sale.

Let me make it quite clear I am NOT reviving the buyback debate, I am merely posting about realising profit from this share.

[fenners66] 03/3/2020 11:27

I had a look at 7.00 am - what I was left with , the qtr growth was only 8% - lower than the half year.
Investment in plant down
Buybacks to continue.

So overall not surprised at the market reaction.

EPS of 144.1 by 9 months
Last full year dividend a measly 40p !

So if you want to have some income from holding this growing company's shares - sell them !!!

[bracke] 02/3/2020 13:09

Good day 2flat

"My oldest rising resistance is still down at 2200 (from 2013).
My other rising resistance is at 2300 (from the breakdown Feb. to June 2016)."
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I don't understand this data. I assume you are referring to rising trend lines which commenced on the dates you state.

As to the Daily SMA 200. It has bounced off this SMA several times in the recent past during relatively normal trading times It has also dropped considerably below that level and remember we are not in 'normal trading times'. If you do buy if/when it drops to the SMA 200 level you thought of buying in stages is a prudent one.

I agree the virus was the trigger. It was not 'if' but 'when'.

I see the Central Banks have stated 'they will do what it takes' but apart from an initial reaction the markets appear unimpressed. Maybe the usual 'money pump' will not do it this time until the virus begins to wane.


BTW Note how the share price rose this morning to just fill the Thursday/Friday gap before dropping.

[2flatpack] 28/2/2020 15:41

Afternoon bracke
My oldest rising resistance is still down at 2200 (from 2013).
My other rising resistance is at 2300 (from the breakdown Feb. to June 2016).
With the 200 day at 2290 .I will find it hard not to start buying as or when we hit these points.
I will have to use all of my self control to keep the buys small, until it turns.
I believe the market was due a correction and the virus was just the trigger.
So I am hoping my old rising resistances will be a good indicator.
Cheers

[bracke] 28/2/2020 15:37

amaretto

Apart from the fact it's falling I've been focusing on it filling the numerous opening gaps it created over the past several months. It's been filling them at a rapid rate.

I know some think I am fixated on gaps but I've had the best trading I've ever had this week using them.

It's been creating gaps to the upside as it has been falling. There's money in those there gaps!

[amaretto1] 28/2/2020 15:13

What's the Dow chart saying bracke ? Just a heads up for all you AHT fans .. A-plant will be know more very soon, it's all being put under the sunbelt brand name... Sun-belt ! i didn't tell ya :-))

[bracke] 28/2/2020 12:11

Good day 2flat

Decisions, decisions indeed.

From a chart perspective the share price broke down out of the shorter term rising channel (Dec-Feb) three days ago but has not yet broken down out of the long term rising channel which commenced at the end of 2018. Currently a drop below £23 would take it out of the channel.

Since the channel commenced the share price has dropped to it or close to it on six occasions but has not broken through, buyers have always moved in and taken back up. This time it's different. If the coronavirus situation is declared a Pandemic the probability is that the share price would break down out of the channel. Until the virus runs its course or at least starts to ease there would appear to be little chance of a market recovery.

[2flatpack] 28/2/2020 08:51

Morning All
I note the share price is around the 150 day sma.
Do I start to buy back (my normal method )or wait? (not normal times).
Decisions,decisions.
I think I'll wait.
Looks to be a buying opportunity in the making.
As always, I live in hope.
Cheers

[bracke] 24/2/2020 18:10

Thank you optomistic.

[bracke] 24/2/2020 18:00

Thank you perfido and Laird.

[lairddavid] 24/2/2020 17:38

Condolences, Brack.

[perfido] 24/2/2020 17:23

bracke

Sorry to hear about Mater, my condolences