Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[bracke] 25/7/2019 12:16

Good day ian

Nice of you to join me in the hot tub.

Not certain what i'm expected to explain. I'm a chart person.

[discodave4] 25/7/2019 11:16

PS So their returns on CAT plant 3 years old would be significantly greater (potentially) than newer more expensive CAT plant (sorry, stating the obvious again probably).

[discodave4] 25/7/2019 11:14

Don't know how much Caterpillar plant AHT purchase, they will IMO just source the cheapest branded equivalent plant (there's enough alternatives out there) and maximise returns no matter what (stating the obvious I know). For existing/new CAT plant I'm assuming they will just elevate the hire charges accordingly and increase margins on older plant (their hire charges do not depend on plant age but ZIP codes and durations - looking at their website and checking the hire charge for a JCB 3C).

[ianwwwhite] 24/7/2019 20:48

Fenners,

I'll leave it to bracke to explain..

[discodave4] 24/7/2019 20:37

URI seems to be ignoring CAT results and is up 4%.

[ianwwwhite] 24/7/2019 20:26

duplicate post removed

[ianwwwhite] 24/7/2019 19:27

Fenners,

I'm shocked.

Are your suggesting that AHT has not been working to the maxim 'getting the best discounts available' and 'the hire business is predicated on it not being worth it for construction companies' mantra to date?

[ianwwwhite] 24/7/2019 19:08

Fenners, That may be true, but we should not forget the impact of companies divesting themselves of equipment on the second hand values of equipment disposals by AHT

[fenners66] 24/7/2019 19:01

Ian whilst AHT may have to pass on higher costs eventually , they will look to getting the best discounts available and of course the hire business is predicated on it not being worth it for construction companies to spend their capex on it. More expensive plant the more incentive to hire.

[ianwwwhite] 24/7/2019 18:09

bracke

Of course AHT have to buy equipment on a replacement basis - have you ever read their accounts?

Buybacks? Lol! Thanks for reminding me why I don't post here regularly anymore...

Bet those frogs are feeling the heat at present, are they not tempted to try another cooling dip? Caution, I hear one of them nearly croaked last time..



.....; balance redressed?

[bracke] 24/7/2019 17:46

ian

Unless AHT have to buy equipment at higher prices they can hire out current equipment at present prices.
I know, i'll bring up the buybacks that will redress the balance.

[ianwwwhite] 24/7/2019 16:25

On the contrary, I imagine if caterpillar have to raise prices so inevitably will their competitors, so it will very probably filter down to AHT customers as an increase in hire charges - a zero sum game?

[fenners66] 24/7/2019 14:13

If Caterpillar have to pass on cost increases to customers then more construction companies will not want to part with their cash....
So they can hire from AHT instead !!

[bracke] 24/7/2019 14:11

Slow down in Europe and US. Time to start pumping money into the economies.......but did it ever stop?

[discodave4] 24/7/2019 14:01

Thanks to Tango man, again:"Caterpillar reiterated this point in its second-quarter release, calling attention to "continued competitive pricing pressures and timing of the selling season as well as unfavorable currency impacts." Caterpillar's construction sales in the Asia/Pacific region declined in the quarter "due to lower demand mainly in China," the company said in a statement."

[ianwwwhite] 24/7/2019 13:52

SMCNI1968

Thanks for the Caterpillar info, much appreciated.

[ianwwwhite] 24/7/2019 13:50

Hi bracke

Thanks for your chart and views.

I think that we may differ only in our perspective here. I think the immediate short term outlook for AHT is not encouraging, but I'm still a long term holder for my remaining holding, and ultimately I still expect to be rewarded for my loyalty and patience!!!

Caterpillar results are disappointing, and ultimately one imagines that the cost pressures they are experiencing will be passed down to customers across the industry..

Time to go back into hibernation for the time being methinks.. :-)

[smcni1968] 24/7/2019 13:46

although their North America construction bit was up 28%, the weakness was Asia Europe and energy

[smcni1968] 24/7/2019 13:15

CAT earnings out, not great

[bracke] 24/7/2019 13:00

Good day ian

On the DAILY chart below each major swing high and low are marked by pink and brown lines. Breaks of these lines indicate a major change in direction which will be of interest to longer term holders.

The highs and lows you refer to are minor swings which are of interest to short term traders.

The swing low at 2186 I consider to be 'intermediate'. A break below this level would be concerning for holders but interesting for potential shorters.

It is disconcerting for me to be apparently less bearish than yourself!


AHT DAILY

[ianwwwhite] 24/7/2019 11:49

Good morning bracke,

I posted 57095 before I saw your post, thanks for posting your views.

It seems our views are not too dissimilar... mine is more bottle half empty than half full :-)

[ianwwwhite] 24/7/2019 11:44

Looks to me like we have been seeing a falling wedge pattern since the beginning of July, with lower highs and lower lows in evidence.

What will stop the rot? I doubt whether even good Caterpillar figures this evening will give more than momentary respite, and the market is probably about to enter the usual summer doldrums phase.

Perhaps Q1 results and AGM on 10th Sept will provide some impetus in due course?

We can only hope...

DYOR
(Subsequent edit: Date of AGM changed from 11th to 10th Sept)