Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[ianwwwhite] 14/6/2017 18:39

Hi bracke,

I agree re targets, thanks, amazing the degree of correlation between your charts and my gut instinct!!
.

[bracke] 14/6/2017 18:39

Lol! indeed. I shall remember that.

[ianwwwhite] 14/6/2017 18:37

Hi ilovefrogs,

Welcome to our board and thank you for your contribution.

I'm afraid you will have to excuse bracke, I'm afraid he is a bit jumpy where frogs are concerned, since an unfortunate ocurrance at the end of last year! Lol!
.

[bracke] 14/6/2017 18:32

ian

My 1640/1650 was as a short to mid term target. Above that level I think will take longer but 'thinking' is a dangerous thing to do, better to analyse the chart.

[bracke] 14/6/2017 18:24

Hmmmm....frogs have a certain meaning on this thread.

I note that you have been a member since March 2016 which pre-dates the unfortunate 'frog' incident. Although I am far from convinced of your total innocence I will have to give you the benefit of the doubt.......but I will be watching!!

[ianwwwhite] 14/6/2017 18:21

Bracke

Thanks for your comments, and glad to see that you have kept your head above water.

This is not the first time that 'words and figures differ' for AHT, i.e. stonking results and contrary market price reaction.

Having watched the usual AHT analysts webcast, Geoff and Suzanne showed their usual confidence, and I think made it clear that there is no direct reliance on Trumps expansionary plans, which may already being scaled back imho. AHT say that they are reliant on organic growth, and selected acquisitions.

I personally have no doubt that AHT shares will revert to the mean in terms of fair value in due course, which I would expect to be in excess of 1650. When? I have no idea, that's why I am an inactive but committed long!

DYOR

[ilovefrogs] 14/6/2017 18:14

Who? Me? How so?

[ilovefrogs] 14/6/2017 17:44

DD - sorry, just to come back on the buy-back point. For the purposes of EPS calculation , treasury stock (the shares bought back) are not counted. Indeed, most Treasury stock is usually cancelled as a matter of course anyway. Also, there is a small effect on the P&L in that you lose any interest that you would have earned on the cash (tiny given today's rates). So, we can expect the sharebuyback to have boosted stated EPS, but this will already have been built in to the EPS calculation of 104.8p.

[bracke] 14/6/2017 17:36

Yes indeed!

Rather like uppompeii I did consider selling at the top yesterday but fell victim to the positive exhortations for the share price previously posted on this thread, plus of course 'greed'. I should have reverted to type, sold and scuttled of with the profit. Let that be a lesson to me that AHT has still got it in for me.

Fortunately my purchase at 1509 was close to the recent low so no damage done so far.

IF (BIG IF) to-day is the low, the gods are with us, taking the long and short of it and fortune smiles on us (just a few caveats) the probability is that the share price will reach 1640/1650, anything higher must be considered a bonus.

BTW Look at that volume, just over 4 million. Look at the price action last time that level of volume was registered.

[ianwwwhite] 14/6/2017 17:04

Good day Bracke

Lol!

I have to say, since you went long, things seem to have come unstuck. What chance of you returning to the dark side?

[bracke] 14/6/2017 16:53

Good day ian

I was looking for that 'be' it's not in your bonnet is it?

[uppompeii] 14/6/2017 16:51

And an oxymoron sentence to finish....

[ianwwwhite] 14/6/2017 16:45

'Market will euphoric' ??

.... and an example of an adjective used in place of a verb?

See me after class, bracke. Lol!
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[bracke] 14/6/2017 16:34

FED interest rate decision later to-day.

The market appears to have priced in a rate rise.The main interest is what Mrs Yellen says about further rises. If she comes on too strong about further increases the market will take umbrage, if she comes on too weak the market will euphoric, so it's got to be 'Goldilocks'.

Some educated words there for you Disco.

[discodave4] 14/6/2017 15:31

Nice, and educated to boot!.....pyrrhic, had to look that one up.Thanks bracke.DD

[bracke] 14/6/2017 14:56

2flat

"Am I correct in saying we have made a higher high and a higher low."
=====================================================================

The short answer is yes.....maybe but us Elite Gurus like to spin it out a bit.
The intraday certainly made a higher high and had it remained close to the top of the range we would all be cheering (apart from the nasty shorting types) but it didn't. It did manage to close above the previous higher high closing price but only just. A higher low is not yet confirmed. All in all a pyrrhic victory; yes I know I am stretching the term.


"Which means, as I understand it, we are in an up trend."
==========================================================

Thus far it has avoided making a lower low but it is too soon to say if the fall is completed. We are definitely not in an uptrend. It has dropped back into the down channel.

[ianwwwhite] 14/6/2017 14:49

Dave,

Glad to help -:)

Wholeheartedly agree with you comments re our AHT community, nice people!
.

[kilgallp] 14/6/2017 14:24

DD4, I second that.

[discodave4] 14/6/2017 13:44

Thanks Ian, much appreciated - nice people on this board!

[hjs] 14/6/2017 13:41

Today's price reaction is due to UBS recommendation to sell! the only broker for sell. All others are buy. sometimes I wonder what do these professionals know. We have good knowledgeable experts on this BB!

[ianwwwhite] 14/6/2017 13:00

Dave re 53867 this might help complete the picture:

On the balance sheet, a share repurchase will reduce the company’s cash holdings, and consequently its total assets base, by the amount of the cash expended in the buyback. The buyback will simultaneously also shrink shareholders' equity on the liabilities side by the same amount. As a result, performance metrics such as return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE) typically improve subsequent to a share buyback

Read more: Impact of Share Repurchases | Investopedia

[2flatpack] 14/6/2017 12:31

bracke
thank you for your Trump like answer?
I can not understand the consternation on the thread.
From behind the sofa it looks like normal results day price action.
Am I correct in saying we have made a higher high and a higher low.
Which means, as I understand it, we are in an up trend.
As always I live in hope.
Cheers

[fenners66] 14/6/2017 12:24

Dave,
yes not trying to be flippant about where the cash came from in terms of views on spending it to buy back shares but only in so much as where it comes from is never going to affect P&L.

As regards spending on buy backs well that's another matter. Sometimes companies spend an awful lot of cash with barely any reduction in the share capital....

[discodave4] 14/6/2017 12:01

Thanks for your patience fenners, finally I think I've got it:The share buy back is itemised in the cash flow statement, thus has reduced net cash carried over and on the balance sheet (current assets). Thus to "balance" total liabilities & equity must in effect have also reduced, whilst can't see where it doesn't really matter I get that it's a BS not P&L thing.Apologies to others and thanks again fenners for your time, I'm not the brightest!.DD