Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[bracke] 25/5/2017 14:38

Good day ian

Supposedly the current temperatures are the highest since 1944.

I think that the 13 June is key. If the results are good and the share price fails to respond in a reasonable manner ie. higher high it would suggest that there is a problem.

[ianwwwhite] 25/5/2017 14:20

Hi bracke,

Just come back from a fabulous morning on the golf course, practising for tomorrows competition on what must be one of the best hot sunny days of the summer. Life is good, and the golf slowly improving!

Thanks for your comments regarding AHT price movements, it seems we lack sustained support at present.

Perhaps the Quarter 4 and year-end results on 13 June 2017 will improve confidence and provide direction, and the current fluctuations might indicate some investor positioning manoeuvres? Pure speculation, I must admit!

Glad to see your recent purchase has remained 'in the money'!

[bracke] 25/5/2017 13:29

Thank you for your reply ian.


Moving on to the price action. The Daily SMA 50 has now crossed down over the Daily SMA 100. It last did this in February 2016. Following the recent drop the share price was supported at the Daily SMA 200 from where it bounced up but has since gradually dropped lower. Another test of the Daily SMA 200 is possible.

Bearing in mind that the US market has risen on each of the past five days it is odd that AHT has not responded. 'Games' being played?

[ianwwwhite] 24/5/2017 22:50

Hi fenners,

Yes, I too can only agree, we are definitely on the same wavelength here!

As for trading in and out, I do like Terry Smith's quote which I have mentioned before, "there are only two sorts of people, those who can't do market timing, and those who don't know they can't do it" Generally I don't bother trying, but I wish those that do the best of luck!
.

[fenners66] 24/5/2017 22:09

Ian I agree.
I have more or less had this conversation with Bracke before. Selling and buying back very well timed may have made me more money over the years but I would have made more money than I have if I had never sold them.

I have of course sold each year to realise the CGT allowance and re-invested the funds elsewhere , thus diversifying as you, sometimes very successfully sometimes not.

But I see Sunbelt continuing to ride the construction wave in the USA for some time yet and we have also still to really enjoy the benefits (as shareholders) of increased or special dividends.

I know divis have risen ; but not to a huge level compared with potential cash - when they stop buying new plant we may see some cash come our way.

[ianwwwhite] 24/5/2017 20:15

Hi bracke

'how long to hold for?' ....indefinitely, but when the circumstances change, so does my strategy if necessary, I don't have firm targets in advance. Works for me!

[bracke] 24/5/2017 18:23

ian

Buy and hold is ok, I do it myself. My trading is a separate activity.

The point I was trying to make is how long to hold for.

Your AHT holding is £2.27. How far would it have to drop before you sold them or do you not have a figure in mind?

Earlier the descending trend was mentioned. The mid point of the channel is at 1530 and a visit to the bottom of the channel takes it to 1460. The share price has been very consistent in moving between the channel top and bottom.

[ianwwwhite] 24/5/2017 17:53

Hi bracke,

I think we have chatted about these differences in our approach before.

My investment approach is to buy and hold, mostly mutual funds, perhaps taking some profits from time to time, but only if I see a better proposition elsewhere to reinvest the funds or to reduce risk.

AHT is a special case, over many years I have reduced my AHT holding by 75% from its highest, and the cost per share of the residual holding is only £2.27. You could argue that if I had not sold any AHT shares at all, then I would have made more profit, but any AHT proceeds have always been reinvested elsewhere, and of course spread the risk.

Generally I am now content to leave this investment to grow in the safe hands of the AHT management, provided the company fundamentals remain sound, rather than try to 'time the market' by short term trading. AHT is a company I like to own, and I have no sell target. As it is part of a wider portfolio, I sleep soundly at night!

However, to each his own as we agree, and I do enjoy watching yourself and other traders trying to beat the odds 😄 . All credit to you for sharing your experiences, and I wish you luck!

[bracke] 24/5/2017 17:26

That's a lot of volume for a very small range.

Honours even between buyers and sellers.

[bracke] 24/5/2017 15:35

Good day ian

Your first paragraph - Agree.

Your second paragraph - Depends how far you expect the channel to descend. Assuming that you are investing to make a profit at what point do you sell? It does not make sense to continue holding and see your profit disappear. To continue holding on the basis that 'it will stop soon' is 'nuts'. Investors as well as traders need to have a sell level in mind.

I may have mentioned this before. I have a friend who invests in shares but has no great interest in them, it's somewhere to put his money and make some interest. On more than one occasion his shares have risen well, turned and then fallen back to and below his purchase price, it has cost him several thousands in lost profit. He has complained and my retort was along the lines of 'do you expect them to rise forever!'.

Kenny Rogers was correct whether you are a trader or an investor. Remember you can always buy back in.

[ianwwwhite] 24/5/2017 13:53

Good afternoon bracke,

My impression is that at a macro level we are in a descending channel, with a sucession of lower highs and lower lows since the March high, but of course I know little of the dark arts of TA, and am happy to be corrected!

Not necessarily a problem if you are a committed 'long term' long, (me? ..guilty as charged), but if you have a shorter horizon, a few words from Kenny Rogers song, The Gambler, might help:

You've got to know when to hold 'em
Know when to fold 'em
Know when to walk away
And know when to run…..... 😄

Hope this helps!
.

[bracke] 24/5/2017 10:42

but only just.

Given the reputation of this share price I am expecting it to deliver a lifestyle to which I would like to become accustomed.

[fenners66] 24/5/2017 08:05

A concerned "in the money" shareholder.....

[bracke] 23/5/2017 18:09

The share price continues to look weak. It's going to require something special in June to shake it out of its malaise.

Posted by concerned shareholder.

[bracke] 22/5/2017 14:26

fenners

I got a quote from my broker which was approx 1495 but was distracted and it timed out. By the time I got another quote it was at the price I bought at.

It now needs to break the downtrend and close at a higher high. Until then it remains in risk territory.

[fenners66] 22/5/2017 14:17

Good day Bracke,
I thought you had got in much lower....

[bracke] 22/5/2017 10:55

Good day fenners

1508.5773.


Good day uppomeii

I fully appreciate that my AHT purchase may be seen as an 'about face'. I simply assess the situation and trade accordingly. How long I will hold the shares I don't know, I will analyse as ususual. It's quite possibly that I will short them even though I hold them.....different timeframes.

I am unaware of Elite Guru impeachment but there have been demotions. You will remember(you will never let me forget) I came close with my ill-timed short. I still suffer with flshbacks.... most distressing.

Not being a Tweeter you will not see such a Tweet but in the immortal words of that renowned thespian the late Kenneth Williams 'Informe, Informe AHT has got it Informe'

[uppompeii] 20/5/2017 09:06

I do hope bracke doesn't let us or, more importantly himself, down this time. The world is watching.

Has a restored Elite Guru ever been impeached?

I hope I don't see a Tweet like this "No EG Has Been Treated Worse Or More Unfairly Than Me"

[fenners66] 20/5/2017 01:13

Spill the beans then Bracke, what buy price did you get in at?

[ianwwwhite] 19/5/2017 18:11

Bracke,

I'm sure you're right. I think it is the uncertainty regarding Trump's tenure that will roil the markets, once action is taken I am sure it will unfold as you suggest.

Plenty of opportunities in the meantime, methinks!

[bracke] 19/5/2017 17:58

Good day ian

As you are well aware I know all about hot water so be careful.

My AHT purchase - So far so good but it's very early days.

Knowing the market, the reaction to a Trump impeachment would probably be similar to election win; a large fall followed by a large rise. He will do well if he completes his full term.

[ianwwwhite] 19/5/2017 17:39

Good afternoon bracke,

You wouldn't want to know her, I fear she and her friend very nearly got me into hot water!

Glad to see that your AHT investment seems very well timed, and fruitful, I expect there will be much carousing in the bracke household this weekend!

Have a good weekend all, but remember, it's not over 'till the fat guy is impeached, and no doubt further exciting developments await. :-)
.

[bracke] 19/5/2017 16:46

Who is Miss Post?

[bracke] 18/5/2017 16:35

Good day Disco

Yes I know was it a moment of desperation or irrational exuberance?

NO SELLING!!! I don't want this share price dropping.