Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[perfido] 30/4/2020 16:09

bracke

Lol! You're right, I can but agree. I wonder, as a point of interest, has a U.S. President even been impeached twice? :-)

(impeached: to charge (the holder of a public office) with misconduct).

[bracke] 30/4/2020 14:27

perfido

"The question is, what happens after the Presidential election? 'After the Lord Mayors Show comes the dustcart' springs to mind, someone will have to clean up the mess!!"
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That presumes Mr Trump is not re-elected. He has stated that China are trying to prevent him from being re-elected thus attempting to garner US support against those nasty Chinese.

If he is re-elected he is 'free' no further election for him. I prefer not to think what he may do!

[perfido] 30/4/2020 12:06

Good day bracke,

Thank you for your further thoughts, I think we are broadly in agreement on Fed/Trump.

The question is, what happens after the Presidential election? 'After the Lord Mayors Show comes the dustcart' springs to mind, someone will have to clean up the mess!!

On the TA front I'm indebted to you for your further explanation, and I will continue to watch this play out with interest - although, I am neither a buyer or a seller for the present, to my mind the current risks don't warrant it..

[bracke] 30/4/2020 11:14

Gap to 2277 filled.

Good day perfido

Ref Mr Trump

There is little doubt that his re-election strategy of 'pumping the markets' resulted in all time highs and the DOW heading to 30,000 before the 'Virus' put a very large spanner in the works. He is desperate to move the markets back up again by any means.

Unfortunately record markets do not equate to record economy and in the Trump era there is/was a large disconnect. Given the current situation would the FED do much different if they had full independence?

AHT - In my post 57968 No3 the shorter time frame rising channel is still in operation with the share price at the channel top and decision time:

A) Breakout up with the target being the next Fib at 2413.

or

B) Retrace. The lower line on the channel is currently at 1860 but I suspect that the Fib at 2111 would provide support.

[fenners66] 29/4/2020 19:56

URI up strongly before results then.....

[jimohno] 29/4/2020 18:38

usually has an impact on AHT.

United Rentals, Inc. is expected* to report earnings on 04/29/2020 after market close. The report will be for the fiscal Quarter ending Mar 2020. According to Zacks Investment Research, based on 4 analysts' forecasts, the consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $3.05

[perfido] 29/4/2020 18:21

Good evening bracke

Judging by the U.S. news coverage, I'm beginning to think Trump is past his 'best before' date, and its time the FED stood up to be counted, and exerted its independence.

For AHT, an amazing three days, something like a 20% price increase with 'no visible means of support', although that trading update helped.

And for our next trick, tomorrow? Can't see the present rate of price appreciation continuing, possibly time for a retrenchment? (o.k. I've been wrong before!)
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[bracke] 29/4/2020 18:02

"let's hope the FED doesn't rock the boat.. :-)"
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No chance of that. Trump would have a fit if they did that!

Just short of filling the gap up to 2277 which I would expect to occur tomorrow. The next is at 2585 then the last one to the upside at 2741.

[perfido] 29/4/2020 15:25

15.20pm: Currently 2222p, 2170p conquered, looks like a breakout?

Edit: subsequently closed 2211p, + 115p, +5.5% on volume of around 1.9 mill.

Nice one AHT, let's hope the FED doesn't rock the boat.. :-)
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[perfido] 29/4/2020 11:46

Encouraging start, but then it looks like we have bounced off the upper trend line of the AHT ascending channel at 2170, at least to the untrained eye :-)

FTSE has regained 6000 level, at least for now...

[bracke] 28/4/2020 18:00

1.5 million volume. Avg is 2.4 million.

To-day was a good rise on lower volume which suggests little selling and not much profit taking at the close.

Held at 2100.

This week in US are - FAANG results, Fed interest rate decision and other data, Thursday is end of month. Any one of these could affect for good or bad.

[perfido] 28/4/2020 16:54

Thanks again bracke

I am not sure whether the minor dip (2096) at the close is significant, or whether we are just gathering strength for another exciting day tomorrow!

Amazing <>14% rise in two days, almost too good to be true!

[bracke] 28/4/2020 15:20

perfido

I have edited my post. Don't know how I got that wrong!

The share price is at 2111 so it's decision time. To break or not to break. If it does break, 2111 could then become support.

[perfido] 28/4/2020 14:45

Good afternoon bracke,

Welcome back, I must admit I was beginning to worry just a little in these uncertain times!

AHTs rise over the last two days has been somewhat meteoric and your detailed analysis is most timely and welcome, and much appreciated thanks.

Interesting times indeed!
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[bracke] 28/4/2020 12:09

Good day perfido

I have been keeping tabs on AHT but not a lot to post until now. Plus DOW trading has been keeping me busy.

As you post there are a number of gaps to fill to the downside and to the upside. The trend is up so I will comment accordingly.

1 The share price has just risen above the long term rising trend line which commenced with the low in Feb 2016 and a touch in Dec 2018.

2 Then follows a trend line which commenced in Dec 2018 and continued until the drop occurred in Feb 2020. To regain the trend the share price will have to rise to 2400 where the line currently lies.

3 Looking at the shorter time frame shows a rising channel albeit with a weak top ie. share price is failing to reach the top of the channel.

4 Gaps to the upside - 2200, 2277, 2741.

5 What's to stop the gap fills? - A) A long term s/r zone at 2060. B) A Fib (Feb 2020 high/Mar 2020 low) at 2111. These two levels will require consistent buying to overcome otherwise they are likely to provide sufficient resistance to cause a retrace.

6 If the share price is unable to break above the two levels shown above the first gap to the downside is at 1830. There are other gaps to the downside but let's leave those for now.

We live in uncertain times but if the virus lessens and economies gradually return to some form of normality the above scenario is a reasonable one.

EDIT

The 2060 shown in 5 is incorrect it should be 2011.

[perfido] 27/4/2020 18:17

From a Closing Market summary:

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
In equity markets, industrial equipment rental company Ashtead Group rose 6.1% (actually 8.47%) after saying it would have free cash flow under all downside scenarios during the Covid-19 crisis despite the virus having an impact on its business.

FTSE 100 - Risers

Carnival (CCL) 922.40p 8.62%
Ashtead Group (AHT) 1,985.00p 8.47%
InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG) 3,601.00p 7.11%
Compass Group (CPG) 1,339.00p 5.72%
ITV (ITV) 72.20p 5.56%
Centrica (CNA) 34.00p 5.33%
Aveva Group (AVV) 3,406.00p 5.09%
Rentokil Initial (RTO) 463.60p 5.08%
Whitbread (WTB) 2,783.00p 4.98%
Next (NXT) 4,705.00p 4.98%
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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[perfido] 27/4/2020 17:00

Well it seems that the market liked the trading update today, up 8.47% +155p to close at 1985p, reported volume was around 2.1 mill (edited)

Furthermore our 'quasi-ascending channel' is still intact, although I guess the 2000 level may provide some resistance.

I think I have also spotted some gaps (!) - at a time like this it is useful to have bracke's TA views but he seems to have gone off the radar - not for too long I hope.. :-)
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[cornishaim] 27/4/2020 09:40

Job RetentionNot sure if the not using the UK scheme is correct as a lot of staff have been furloughed and others are working a rotational 3 week furlough

[dcarn] 27/4/2020 09:09

I can’t really criticise that update in anyway, all very sensible and prudent.

To be honest, far better than I was expecting.

[palwing32] 27/4/2020 08:25

Looks positive to me and a sensible approach has been taken. Might please the "buy back" brigade too. No,t that I want to start that discussion again. I didn't understand it the 1st time round...or the 10th! ;-)Luckily I only sold 50% of my holdings recently. Damn, my timing is atrocious.......at times.

[hydrogen economy] 27/4/2020 08:10

Trading update released today, some COVID impacts, some additional demand for emergency facilities. April US revenue expected 15% lower yoy, but signs of stabilizing demand. Overall no big surprises, broadly positive considering.


Now expect underlying pbt for year end 30 April 2020 to be c. £1,050m.

Reducing 2021 CAPEX c.£500 million from the initial range of £1.1 to £1.3 billion
Suspending M&A activity (LTM January 2020: £537 million)
Pausing share buyback programme from 19 March (LTM January 2020: £509 million)
Freeze on new hires
Reducing costs

[perfido] 24/4/2020 19:32

Well our quasi-ascending channel seems to have just about survived on an end of week low volume day, (-7.5p 1830 close).

Expecting our resident gnu to wade in with his expert technical view?

[perfido] 24/4/2020 19:30

(duplicate post removed)

[perfido] 24/4/2020 09:41

It looks to me that we might be in some sort of ascending channel, although in these times when one tweet can move markets uncertainty rules.

Masterful inaction continues to be a good game-plan IMHO

Nevertheless I have initiated a small monthly purchase of Terry Smiths fund to increase my holding and gain the benefits of pound cost averaging in advance of the inevitable recovery, even though we may see some further falls in the meantime. Interesting times indeed.. DYOR
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[perfido] 23/4/2020 17:59

Buybacks - Buffett's point of view, I'm guessing his investment record is the better of the two: