Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[optomistic] 02/4/2020 13:28

Bracke, it sounds like you have had a very good time, well done :-))

[bracke] 02/4/2020 13:22

Good day optomistic

I haven't posted here because I have had little to say plus I've been very busy trading the DOW. I missed out on the the volatility during the 2008 credit crisis and was determined that if/when the opportunity arose again I was going to have a piece of it.

The opportunities have been fantastic provided you have a good knowledge and experience of the markets; they are definitely not for the uninformed or inexperienced.

I think it's fair to say that it's not a once in a lifetime market more like once in a couple of lifetimes.

[optomistic] 02/4/2020 13:01

Good afternoon Bracke, good to see you are active, beginning to get a bit worried about your absence :-)

[bracke] 02/4/2020 11:26

I was reading this week that after the virus situation ends the US intends to spent a large amount on infrastructure including bridges and roads.

Might even buy some myself once the DOW/S&P decide which way they are heading. A drop to test the low or a rise signalling the all clear. Both are operating in the Fib range of 23.6% - 32.8. A break and hold below 23.6 is likely to result in a test of the low. A break and hold above 32.8 would suggest the worst is over.

For those who may be interested. Following the low AHT rose to the 50% Fib but has since dropped back below the 38.2%.

The Fib range is calculated from the high prior to the virus and the low thereafter.

[hydrogen economy] 02/4/2020 10:16

We cannot yet know how the shutdown will impact revenue and profits in 2020 so I took a look at how the numbers would look for a range of revenue reductions to check vulnerability. I looked at cases with no reductions in staff costs and 20% reduction, other costs held constant. Depreciation is adjusted to 3Q results assets value and interest costs to 3Q borrowings.

Result was with no staff cuts AHT is profitable down to a revenue at 78% of 2019, with a 20% staff cut the break-even is at 73%.

A 50% revenue cut gives a loss per share of 168p and 75% a LPS of 350p, however if no capex investment is made (or buybacks) the cash flow remains positive down to around 52% of 2019 revenue.

FY EPS forecasts have been revised down slightly (but I'm sure more cuts will come), digital look now show 192p 178p 207p for 2020-22. For these numbers with a 4% growth after 2022 I got a DCF share value of ~2400p.

A distressed case arbitrarily picked at 175p, 50p, 150p with 4% growth after 2022, the DCF gives 1725p. We should see faster growth in a recovery, unless we swing into depression.

I bought some at 1225p and I’m inclined to hang on to them for now and would add if we get to that level again.

[amaretto1] 26/3/2020 20:47

Could never have foreseen this But I'm sticking to my prediction.. u will see 8 .. before 25 !!!

[palwing32] 26/3/2020 16:14

Looks like I got the timing wrong again. Will stick as I am for now with my remaining 50%. Story of my life....

[perfido] 25/3/2020 17:46

dcarn,

Many thanks for your post, most encouraging..

[dcarn] 25/3/2020 15:39

Ashtead fears are overdone, says Numis
Equipment rental group Ashtead (AHT) has come under pressure but concerns about balance sheet stress are overdone, says Numis.

Analyst Steve Woolf retained his ‘buy’ recommendation and target price of £28 on the shares. ‘Fears concerning the resilience of Ashtead’s balance sheet are overdone,’ said Woolf.

‘Market pressures are increasing, but there are a number of cash levers available to manage even a sharp downturn. Ashtead’s scale, diversify, and use of IT are also key areas of differentiation.

He added that the shares had come under ‘significant pressure’ which now represents a ‘buying opportunity’.

[amaretto1] 24/3/2020 15:36

I noticed that.. good move, save cash .. they will need itUK lockdown

[bracke] 24/3/2020 13:44

I note no share buy back since Thursday 19th March.

[jackdaw4243] 23/3/2020 18:52

Great Post

" Dear Loyal shareholders , we have decided to not pay you any income to reward you for investing in us. This is because we spent all the cash on rewarding disloyal freeloaders and fly by night traders. I am sure you agree that increasing debt and paying city boys their trading bonuses together with engineering numbers to boost our bonuses was the best use of our hard earned cash. We will of course be turning to you again, when this is all over to buy into a rights issue to recapitalise us, so we can rinse and repeat. Yours disrespectfully BODs."
amaretto123 Mar '20 - 10:48 - 57908 of 57909

Look at G E on buy back.

Walker should bring some sense to this

[fenners66] 23/3/2020 14:22

Said a fly by night ?

[amaretto1] 23/3/2020 10:48

Fly by night traders ? Get a grip... without them u wouldn't have a market.

[fenners66] 23/3/2020 10:18

At least Shell have not said they are stopping the divi.

But the madness of buybacks is laid bare if any do stop the divi as well.

" Dear Loyal shareholders , we have decided to not pay you any income to reward you for investing in us. This is because we spent all the cash on rewarding disloyal freeloaders and fly by night traders. I am sure you agree that increasing debt and paying city boys their trading bonuses together with engineering numbers to boost our bonuses was the best use of our hard earned cash. We will of course be turning to you again, when this is all over to buy into a rights issue to recapitalise us, so we can rinse and repeat. Yours disrespectfully BODs."

[amaretto1] 23/3/2020 09:37

My take ... is less than 400 million !

[amaretto1] 23/3/2020 07:51

How much liquid as AHT got ?

[amaretto1] 23/3/2020 07:51

And shell is one of the stronger ones.

[perfido] 23/3/2020 07:36

I anticipate Ashtead will suspend the buyback and possibly the dividend shortly.

This CV is a game changer, over 30 companies have already suspended their dividend payments.

[amaretto1] 23/3/2020 07:25

Shell just stopped Share buy back !

[amaretto1] 21/3/2020 09:36

Well Dow as dropped another 1000 after our close ...So I'm pretty sure I'm right. Hope so for yaI'll post on here when I'm going long, it may not be the bottom .. but who knows :-)

[palwing32] 20/3/2020 16:28

FINALLY managed to trade, but not where I wanted due to Halifax dealing not coping with demand, perhaps? Sold 50% of my long term holding. Not a huge amount compared with you big boys, but safe guarding my profit with the hope of buying back in at a lower price one day. As suggested, this current madness might only be the start. Good luck all.