Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[perfido] 29/4/2020 11:46

Encouraging start, but then it looks like we have bounced off the upper trend line of the AHT ascending channel at 2170, at least to the untrained eye :-)

FTSE has regained 6000 level, at least for now...

[bracke] 28/4/2020 18:00

1.5 million volume. Avg is 2.4 million.

To-day was a good rise on lower volume which suggests little selling and not much profit taking at the close.

Held at 2100.

This week in US are - FAANG results, Fed interest rate decision and other data, Thursday is end of month. Any one of these could affect for good or bad.

[perfido] 28/4/2020 16:54

Thanks again bracke

I am not sure whether the minor dip (2096) at the close is significant, or whether we are just gathering strength for another exciting day tomorrow!

Amazing <>14% rise in two days, almost too good to be true!

[bracke] 28/4/2020 15:20

perfido

I have edited my post. Don't know how I got that wrong!

The share price is at 2111 so it's decision time. To break or not to break. If it does break, 2111 could then become support.

[perfido] 28/4/2020 14:45

Good afternoon bracke,

Welcome back, I must admit I was beginning to worry just a little in these uncertain times!

AHTs rise over the last two days has been somewhat meteoric and your detailed analysis is most timely and welcome, and much appreciated thanks.

Interesting times indeed!
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[bracke] 28/4/2020 12:09

Good day perfido

I have been keeping tabs on AHT but not a lot to post until now. Plus DOW trading has been keeping me busy.

As you post there are a number of gaps to fill to the downside and to the upside. The trend is up so I will comment accordingly.

1 The share price has just risen above the long term rising trend line which commenced with the low in Feb 2016 and a touch in Dec 2018.

2 Then follows a trend line which commenced in Dec 2018 and continued until the drop occurred in Feb 2020. To regain the trend the share price will have to rise to 2400 where the line currently lies.

3 Looking at the shorter time frame shows a rising channel albeit with a weak top ie. share price is failing to reach the top of the channel.

4 Gaps to the upside - 2200, 2277, 2741.

5 What's to stop the gap fills? - A) A long term s/r zone at 2060. B) A Fib (Feb 2020 high/Mar 2020 low) at 2111. These two levels will require consistent buying to overcome otherwise they are likely to provide sufficient resistance to cause a retrace.

6 If the share price is unable to break above the two levels shown above the first gap to the downside is at 1830. There are other gaps to the downside but let's leave those for now.

We live in uncertain times but if the virus lessens and economies gradually return to some form of normality the above scenario is a reasonable one.

EDIT

The 2060 shown in 5 is incorrect it should be 2011.

[perfido] 27/4/2020 18:17

From a Closing Market summary:

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
In equity markets, industrial equipment rental company Ashtead Group rose 6.1% (actually 8.47%) after saying it would have free cash flow under all downside scenarios during the Covid-19 crisis despite the virus having an impact on its business.

FTSE 100 - Risers

Carnival (CCL) 922.40p 8.62%
Ashtead Group (AHT) 1,985.00p 8.47%
InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG) 3,601.00p 7.11%
Compass Group (CPG) 1,339.00p 5.72%
ITV (ITV) 72.20p 5.56%
Centrica (CNA) 34.00p 5.33%
Aveva Group (AVV) 3,406.00p 5.09%
Rentokil Initial (RTO) 463.60p 5.08%
Whitbread (WTB) 2,783.00p 4.98%
Next (NXT) 4,705.00p 4.98%
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
.

[perfido] 27/4/2020 17:00

Well it seems that the market liked the trading update today, up 8.47% +155p to close at 1985p, reported volume was around 2.1 mill (edited)

Furthermore our 'quasi-ascending channel' is still intact, although I guess the 2000 level may provide some resistance.

I think I have also spotted some gaps (!) - at a time like this it is useful to have bracke's TA views but he seems to have gone off the radar - not for too long I hope.. :-)
.

[cornishaim] 27/4/2020 09:40

Job RetentionNot sure if the not using the UK scheme is correct as a lot of staff have been furloughed and others are working a rotational 3 week furlough

[dcarn] 27/4/2020 09:09

I can’t really criticise that update in anyway, all very sensible and prudent.

To be honest, far better than I was expecting.

[palwing32] 27/4/2020 08:25

Looks positive to me and a sensible approach has been taken. Might please the "buy back" brigade too. No,t that I want to start that discussion again. I didn't understand it the 1st time round...or the 10th! ;-)Luckily I only sold 50% of my holdings recently. Damn, my timing is atrocious.......at times.

[hydrogen economy] 27/4/2020 08:10

Trading update released today, some COVID impacts, some additional demand for emergency facilities. April US revenue expected 15% lower yoy, but signs of stabilizing demand. Overall no big surprises, broadly positive considering.


Now expect underlying pbt for year end 30 April 2020 to be c. £1,050m.

Reducing 2021 CAPEX c.£500 million from the initial range of £1.1 to £1.3 billion
Suspending M&A activity (LTM January 2020: £537 million)
Pausing share buyback programme from 19 March (LTM January 2020: £509 million)
Freeze on new hires
Reducing costs

[perfido] 24/4/2020 19:32

Well our quasi-ascending channel seems to have just about survived on an end of week low volume day, (-7.5p 1830 close).

Expecting our resident gnu to wade in with his expert technical view?

[perfido] 24/4/2020 19:30

(duplicate post removed)

[perfido] 24/4/2020 09:41

It looks to me that we might be in some sort of ascending channel, although in these times when one tweet can move markets uncertainty rules.

Masterful inaction continues to be a good game-plan IMHO

Nevertheless I have initiated a small monthly purchase of Terry Smiths fund to increase my holding and gain the benefits of pound cost averaging in advance of the inevitable recovery, even though we may see some further falls in the meantime. Interesting times indeed.. DYOR
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[perfido] 23/4/2020 17:59

Buybacks - Buffett's point of view, I'm guessing his investment record is the better of the two:

[bracke] 23/4/2020 16:18

Buybacks - A point of view.

[bracke] 16/4/2020 14:24

Good day uppompeii

Thank you for the "All hail". Did you have any problem removing your tongue from cheek after posting it?

I have not seen 'Vikings' but was intrigued as the Seer in such films isn't normally the good looking type (modest forbids). I had a google and found the little chap below. I presume the reason he reminds you of the Elite Guru is because his 'calls' are very accurate.

I thought he was pricey especially as he is only 3 3/4 inches tall. I am somewhat taller than that so you can imagine what I cost!

[uppompeii] 16/4/2020 12:45

As an aside. During this lockdown I've been catching up on some episodes of 'Vikings' on Amazon. For some reason the Seer always reminded me of the Elite Guru. Quite likely a passing resemblance too..

[uppompeii] 16/4/2020 12:11

All hail the elite guru

[hydrogen economy] 16/4/2020 11:41

bracke thanks, great answer befitting an elite guru.

Fedopoly might be fun if we hadn't all landed on go to jail.

[bracke] 16/4/2020 10:50

Good day Hydrogen

Tomorrow (Friday) is OPEX. The run up to it is usually bullish thereafter the market tends to ease back. The gaps you refer to are not a long way off and are likely to be filled in weeks rather than months.

There is another gap further down at 1335 from 23 March which is likely to take months rather than weeks to fill.

Those gaps are negative from a shareholder point of view so to redress the balance there is a very chunky gap to the upside at 2200 from 06 March. I've no doubt it will fill but again I think months not weeks.

We live in strange times along with the FED pumping $ in to the market in vast quantities. We no longer have a proper market we have a Fedopoly. The question is can the FED keep the markets afloat or will its efforts fall to overwhelming odds.

[hydrogen economy] 16/4/2020 08:22

bracke, there were gaps up from 1750 and 1605 on 7th and 6th April, we are mid gap on the first, do you see either or both being filled near term?

[fenners66] 15/4/2020 12:41

"perfido
14 Apr '20 - 21:23 - 57945 of 57948

Surprised to read that you are invested in airlines fenners"

Where did you read that ?

I guess that could explain a lot