Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[ianwwwhite] 01/7/2019 17:12

Hi bracke and uppompeii,

I am in complete agreement with both of you!

By way of explanation I should explain I have retained the majority of my AHT holding (buy and hold), but thought that it was prudent to reduce the risk and re-balance my portfolio a bit (take some profits)as we have seen a decent rise in the AHT share price recently, hence this mornings modest sale.

Why this morning? At 2300+ I was feeling a bit dizzy...

[bracke] 01/7/2019 16:36

'Poor Mater' is very pleased to have an Elite Guru as her financial aide.

[uppompeii] 01/7/2019 16:22

Just thinking of poor Mater.

[bracke] 01/7/2019 14:56

Good day uppompeii

"quite clearly buying and holding was the way to go."
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You will remember I bought at 2000 and sold six months later at 2186 following which the share price dropped to a low of 1826. Yes it has risen from the low but that is hindsight. My original sell was the correct action. I could have bought at or near the low but did not do so as the money was invested elsewhere.

Are you a holder of AHT? If so at what level will you sell? The danger with buy and hold is that the reluctance to sell results in holding to the bitter end and then waiting for the share price to rise which it may never do or take years to do so.

I may have mentioned I have a friend who buys and holds shares during which time the share price often rises to good levels which he leaves only for the share price do drop back to his buying share price or lower. He then bemoans the situation. When I point out that he could have sold at a good profit he replies that he doesn't like buying and selling but just wants to leave them!!! I have suggested he may be better of with fixed return investments.

[uppompeii] 01/7/2019 14:31

Mater must be in quiet despair at your frequent ins and outs whereas quite clearly buying and holding was the way to go. What did you sell hers at again?

[ianwwwhite] 01/7/2019 11:38

Hi bracke,

Many thanks for your graph and views which I found extremely helpful.

Much appreciated!!

[bracke] 01/7/2019 11:18

Good day ian

"I wonder, from a TA perspective, do you see a natural inflection point in the range 2300-2400?"
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You will see in the chart below that the share price has reached the ML of the Pitchfork. That does not mean it cannot rise further. It means that the share price has fulfilled it's PF probability.

Looking to the LH side of the chart shows that the last time it reached the current level it ranged between 2300 and 2450. Thus 2300 was support the danger is that it will be resistance until it is breached and then likely to become support again.

Looking at MACD at the bottom of the chart you will note that when it reached the current level last year the MACD was neutral, currently it is high which adds to my reasoning for at least a retrace.

If I was still a holder I would be watching the share price when the US opens to-day.

PS There is a gap to fill down to Friday's close at 2254.

AHT DAILY

[ianwwwhite] 01/7/2019 10:16

Good morning bracke

After a good run since results, I am considering 'taking some chips off the table'.

I wonder, from a TA perspective, do you see a natural inflection point in the range 2300-2400?

______________________________________________________
Edit:

* Subsequent to the above post, sold the small number of AHT shares bought (1,999.4p) in Oct 18 @ 2305.18p - just a small profit but every little helps!

* Inclined to sell a few more, if the price continues to climb - greedy or what? :-)

[bracke] 01/7/2019 10:07

Following on from the tariff talks not unsurprising that the market is up and AHT has reached 2300. US Futures are up 270 as I type. If the US pushes up further on opening it should be sufficient to take the share price over 2300 and on the route to 2400.

[discodave4] 29/6/2019 11:05

Gave it a decent effort yesterday but our friends across the pond seem to have halted the attempt.

[fenners66] 28/6/2019 23:21

2270 being a hard nut to crack

[discodave4] 28/6/2019 15:07

Hi bracke,In a word.....yep!

[bracke] 28/6/2019 14:49

Good day Disco

I think we can safely say that accumulation has been the order of the last eight/nine days. We have seen this before. If the accumulators think think there is more to come through tariff agreement/rate cut they will hold but we know what follows accumulation don't we. If there is any doubt look at the long term chart.

[discodave4] 27/6/2019 22:17

Thanks bracke,IMVHO profit taking Friday is odds on favourite....but wtfdik! :)

[uppompeii] 27/6/2019 15:19

Tis true, it was after saving bracke, by pleading to the council following his own personal infamous 'black swan' event, that the resentment set in...

[bracke] 27/6/2019 14:51

Good day ian

I think uppompeii is a little 'narked'. His application to the Guru Council for membership was rejected.

I think there maybe still hope for him as Guru.......third class.

[ianwwwhite] 27/6/2019 14:18

Well done bracke, keep up the good work, much appreciated :-)

[bracke] 27/6/2019 13:55

Good day uppompeii

Of course!! I am an Elite Guru.

Having said that I thought I was tempting fate with "the target has to be 2400 even if it retraces along the way". Somewhat brave of me don't you think.

[uppompeii] 27/6/2019 13:47

As ever an excellent covering of both bases!

[bracke] 27/6/2019 10:45

"so perhaps it will plough on to 2270 without the retrace."
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It did.

What next? If it can break out beyond 2270 the target has to be 2400 even if it retraces along the way.

[ianwwwhite] 25/6/2019 18:27

Thanks bracke, much appreciated.

[bracke] 25/6/2019 18:02

Good day ian

Given the recent large rise it would be unusual to continue the rise without a retrace. To-day it dropped back to test 2100 which held so perhaps it will plough on to 2270 without the retrace.

Tomorrow is likely to confirm if the breakout is good or not.

[ianwwwhite] 25/6/2019 17:40

Hi bracke,

As always thanks for your views.

Re: "If it can break above the last major high at 2210 it should be good for 2270."

We closed at 2229, following yesterdays 2223, with volume today indicated at 1.5mil.

In the TA world, is this the breakout you were looking for?

[bracke] 25/6/2019 10:46

Those of you who have been paying attention to my 'pearls of wisdom' will remember Post 56984.......you don't!!! I will remind you of a particularly pertinent sentence.
"If it can break above the last major high at 2210 it should be good for 2270."

It nudged slightly above 2210 but has so far been unable to progress further. Probably taking a breather following the continuous run up to 2200. If it is to go for 2270 a retrace first may be a good idea especially if Mr Trump sorts out Mr Xi Jinping.

If the tariff talks fail the retrace may become something else.