Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[ianwwwhite] 21/6/2019 16:34

Good afternoon bracke

Thanks for your views.

I think I am right in saying that the FED statement was on Wednesday, but the biggest part of the AHT rise (+120p)took place on Tuesday after the AHT results and analysts briefing webcast, but prior to the Fed announcement the following day.

This was followed by Wednesday (+20p) and Thursday (+40p). Hence I think the AHT results deserve a little more credit :-)

Nevertheless, it is always interesting to hear your views and I wholeheartedly agree that the acid test will come when the market gets a dose of realism, possibly after the U.S POTUS election.

In the meantime there are plenty of other issues that could trip us up, alas, too many to mention...

[ianwwwhite] 21/6/2019 16:15

Hi SMCNI1968,

Thanks for your explanation of your prediction, I'll watch with interest.

Cheers, IWW

[bracke] 21/6/2019 15:24

Good day ian

I suggest the major part of the rise followed the FED statement which the market took as meaning that there would be rate cuts. There is also the presumption/hope that the US/China Tariff situation will be resolved amicably.

The whole market has risen since the FED statement. The test will come when the market takes a dive and if AHT holds firm or goes with the market.

EDIT

If it can break above the last major high at 2210 it should be good for 2270.

[smcni1968] 21/6/2019 14:16

yes my mistake

[discodave4] 21/6/2019 13:41

Hi SMCNDid you mean 2020 not 2021?2019 eps was 174p (+33%), 2020 200p (+15%)Thanks

[smcni1968] 21/6/2019 13:26

18 months- 15x £2 2021 EPS. If there's a downturn all bets are off...

[ianwwwhite] 21/6/2019 09:34

Believe it when I see it!

SMCNI1968 do you have an indicative timescale?

[discodave4] 21/6/2019 09:32

Wouldn't say no.

[smcni1968] 21/6/2019 01:33

Target price £30 assuming the US economy doesn't fall into recession

[fenners66] 20/6/2019 22:00

You can take a profit that rises by a lower % if it means a higher cash increase in profits - starting from a higher base.

[ianwwwhite] 20/6/2019 21:02

Hi DD,

'Solid/good', 'stonking' or 'nothing special'?

Personally, I'm inclined to agree with the market view :-)

Definitely still an LTH for me..

[discodave4] 20/6/2019 19:55

Hi Ian,Must admit I only thought the results were solid/good but the bar has been set high in AHT's case, percentage growth for revenue and pre tax profit was lower than the preceding year (EBITDA growth was the same and eps was up on last year). Clearly though in these volatile times the market appears to have taken them as "stonking" results :)

[ianwwwhite] 20/6/2019 17:24

Re bracke (18/06/19)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Price action suggests the market thinks the results are ok but nothing special. Buyers have taken the share price above 2000 as expected but can they keep it there?
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

I beg to differ!! Plus 179p (+9%) since eve (17/06/19) of stonking set of results by my calculations - happy days.. :-)
.

[discodave4] 20/6/2019 09:09

There's talk of up to 0.5% cuts with one next month, guess it's all down to what the Tango man does/says.Wonder when the buyback starts?£462m last FY, now increased to £500m.

[bracke] 19/6/2019 10:06

A very well mannered rise yesterday. Gapped up on opening but dropped back to fill the gap before take off giving an opportunity to buy at the lower level.

Repeated again to-day to move above 2100 but will it hold if the FED do not drop the rate?

[fenners66] 18/6/2019 22:03

Note the £ has fallen against the US $ again too

[fenners66] 18/6/2019 22:01

"Industrials also outperformed. Equipment-maker Caterpillar, whose shares are often seen as a bellwether for the global economy, rose 2.4%."

Part of today's US rise commentary

[ianwwwhite] 18/6/2019 21:38

Hi DD,

Entirely agree. Time to move on, methinks..

Edit: just seen your figures, most encouraging thanks

[discodave4] 18/6/2019 21:26

For info, may be useful may be not, the FTSE100 medians for the following metrics are as follows:PE 13.6, Div Yield 4.2% and EPS Growth 9.2%By comparison AHT is:PE 11.9, Div Yield 1.9% and EPS Growth 33% - bargain IMO.

[discodave4] 18/6/2019 21:06

Hi Ian,Was tongue in cheek and fundamentally I agree, if the buyback is not to your liking to the point of putting you off from investing then fine, personally I have no problem with it. Yes wouldn't say no to a larger dividend but invested here for capital growth not income.

[ianwwwhite] 18/6/2019 19:59

DD,

With respect I disagree. Why is it necessary to tiptoe around the sensitivities of the anti-buyback brigade?

The company's position is quite clear, it's going to buy back at least another GBP500m of shares in 2019/2020 not withstanding the views expressed here, and Barclays mandate to buy has just been renewed.

If the anti buyback postings become irksome, I for one am happy to use the filter button, I've heard it all before.

Shareholders need to ask themselves whether this is the right share to be in if they fundamentally disagree with the company's stated policies and intentions, reiterated today.

However the opportunity cost of standing on your principles could be expensive, and there is a saying which I would commend - 'worry about what you can change ...'

[discodave4] 18/6/2019 19:16

Sssshh don't mention the BB, touchy subject on here! :)

[hatfullofsky] 18/6/2019 19:00

Great results but mostly expected (the market is a fickle monster) and a great rise.

I am keeping my eye on the debt, personally I would much prefer some of that to be paid down rather than another(what may become an expensive) buy back.