Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[bracke] 11/12/2018 10:51

Good day All

Ref the competition. Thank you for the congratulations . Would you expect anything less from an Elite Guru. That's a rhetorical question.

Mater will be pleased about the 6.5p but less so when it could have been more than doubled if the cash spent on buybacks had been used to pay a larger divi. Good post fenners.

I note that following the usual rise in share price after the results one of the upside gaps been filled. Very disappointing it was unable to fill the larger one and 'telling'. The rise created a gap to the downside. I doubt it will remain unfilled for long.

[fenners66] 11/12/2018 10:19

FTSE rising and AHT falling - perverse....

But these results will take a few days to sink in I guess.

Despite fears in the US - they still have infrastructure to invest in and of course they are getting more than their share of weather related catastrophes to fix.

[ianwwwhite] 11/12/2018 10:14

fenners66 & DD4

re the 'Fenners Competition'

Thanks guys :-)

[discodave4] 11/12/2018 10:03

Good job they didn't issue an in-line or below expectations- let's hope those across the pond are more appreciative of quality and growth.

[fenners66] 11/12/2018 09:52

"after spending GBP425m to date on our share buyback programme" ....


and only £159m on dividends last year ......


.....Our share price has fallen 35% !!


Cut the debt and pay less in finance charges and increase the dividend so shareholders gain not share sellers and traders!


Markets are looking forward and are starting to assume the yield curve is pointing towards a US recession for 2019/20.

So indebted companies are being sold off.
No one waits until the recession has arrived.
So all the share buybacks for the past year did nothing to stem the tide - and they can't - as it is "all things being equal the EPS rises with buybacks "

But all things are not equal - equity valuations have fallen and the good companies fall as well - they are not immune.

How much of the £425m is now shown to be wasted ?

[discodave4] 11/12/2018 09:31

Hi fennersWould be nice to have a special divi or increased yield but they are keeping it in line with growth, so about 2% which isn't too bad I suppose. Congratulations Ian and bracke.........begrudgingly! Haha.

[fenners66] 11/12/2018 09:21

ianwwwhite
3 Dec '18 - 10:23 - 56106 of 56139

Fenner's competition update 3/12/18:

fenners.....7p
DD4.........6.75p (reiterated 3/12/18)
Ian.........6.5p
Smcni1968...6p
Bracke......6.5p
palwing.....7p

Looks like it's possible we'll be needing a tiebreaker..


And the winners are .......


Ian & bracke

Well done guys.


I have to say I was being optimistic (as a little prompt) at 7p


But look at the first half earnings compared to the dividend 95.1 vs 6.5

[discodave4] 11/12/2018 09:20

SMCNYep appreciate that, but surely when looking back on historical eps (as per H2 graph) it's skewed because of changes over time in the number of issued shares (due to buybacks / placing etc) rather than the relative increase in earnings - hence my question that a normalised eps graph would look completely different I suspect.

[smcni1968] 11/12/2018 09:09

in calculating eps? yes. That's part of the theory behind buybacks - fewer shares left so the owners of each get a bigger 'share' of the profits

[discodave4] 11/12/2018 09:01

H2Is that normalised to take on board share buybacks?.

[hydrogen economy] 11/12/2018 08:28

The plot of quarterly EPS over last few years shows just how good these results are, I wasn't able to paste into advfn chat but have put on iii link below.

hxxps://www.ii.co.uk/discussion/t/q2-results/1146059

H2

[rescuer] 11/12/2018 07:56

another set of brilliant results - well done AHT

[palwing32] 11/12/2018 07:43

Looks positive to me. DJI blue too. GLA

[palwing32] 11/12/2018 07:42

DividendIn line with its policy of providing a progressive dividend, having regard to both underlying profit and cash generation and to sustainability through the economic cycle, the Board has increased the interim dividend 18% to 6.5p per share (2017: 5.5p per share). This will be paid on 6 February 2019 to shareholders on the register on 18 January 2019.

[palwing32] 11/12/2018 07:41

"Our business is performing well in supportive end markets. Accordingly, we expect full year results to be ahead of our prior expectations and the Board continues to look to the medium term with confidence."

[discodave4] 11/12/2018 07:38

Morning, always nice to read:"Our business is performing well in supportive end markets. Accordingly, we expect full year results to be ahead of our prior expectations and the Board continues to look to the medium term with confidence."Would assume they mean ahead of what they expected at Q1.With H1 eps 98.8p, I reckon year end could be close to 180p, putting this on a forward PE of less than 9.Dividend 6.5p!.........think that's a typo, should be 6.75p.Fingers crossed the market likes the numbers and reassurance that growth is being maintained, with Canada looking like an astute move.

[fenners66] 11/12/2018 07:28

Morning all

So now priced at less than 10x earnings !

[ianwwwhite] 07/12/2018 17:44

Hi DD,

Fortunately in 1987 my 'table stake' was very modest so a valuable lesson was learned at very little outlay - and I quickly realized the value of a structured portfolio of mixed assets (cash, bonds, mutual funds, shares) with varying degrees of risk/reward in mitigating risk! As for my hair that's another matter!

I am sure AHT will regain its mojo in due course, but I think patience will be a prerequisite.

Good luck with your investments, from what I have seen, I am sure you will win out.

Have a great weekend

IWW

[discodave4] 07/12/2018 17:09

Hello Ian,If you survived Oct 87 (and kept your hair!), then you can survive anything.....dread to think what some stocks fell if the index fell over 12%.Let's hope next week AHT starts to get its mojo back.Have a good one.DD

[ianwwwhite] 07/12/2018 16:41

Good afternoon DD,

I remember 1987, my first full year of investing, and for the first nine months it was a glorious year - then came the Great Storm of Oct '87, and the Stock Market crash, and I thought life would never be the same!

Thirty years and four significant corrections on, it seems nothing changes, and although I anticipate AHT's results next week will be good, the counter influences of Brexit and Trump/U.S. economic outlook may still prevail. Apparently the average bear market lasts less than two years but does present opportunities.

Is the worst of the fall over? It remains to be seem whether the modest recovery today heralds a new phase, or more likely is it a result of end of week book balancing.... tbc

[discodave4] 07/12/2018 12:56

Thought this would be building up for next Tuesdays results but doesn't look like it - big day Tuesday!, couldn't they have made it Monday instead lol.Oh well.DD

[discodave4] 06/12/2018 17:32

Intraday range today was -3.6%The biggest on record was -12.2% jeez!! On the 20th Oct 1987.Puts today's into context!, pfft a mere blip.

[discodave4] 06/12/2018 17:05

Correction: -3.1% (sure it closed down 3.6%).

[discodave4] 06/12/2018 16:51

Unbelievable day!FTSE100 down 3.6%Only been investing for a relatively short time so is that a record?.Couldn't resist putting a long spread bet on, nothing to earth shattering just £3 per pip.