Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[discodave4] 05/2/2019 20:11

Good evening Ian,Did I miss read "sell at breakeven", must be the thought of buying me a pint has sent him over the edge!.Why give fund managers a fee when you can simply check their portfolios and do likewise, besides where's the fun!........but avoid Woodford, think he went to the same investing school as bracke!.bracke - No offence Dad, much respect.p.s £24 by June double or quits!

[ianwwwhite] 05/2/2019 18:54

uppompeii

Was it the fact that he made a profit that he found disconcerting? lol!

[uppompeii] 05/2/2019 18:42

bracke has been befuddled by BP

[ianwwwhite] 05/2/2019 18:33

'sell at breakeven?'....

Edit: I wouldn't dream of commenting :-)

[bracke] 05/2/2019 18:11

My thoughts now turn to AHT and whether to sell at breakeven.

As you pointed out earlier today it's had an excellent run up from the December low. How much more can it give on this leg before a sizeable retrace.

A watching brief.

[ianwwwhite] 05/2/2019 18:05

Well done bracke, glad to hear things are going well!

[bracke] 05/2/2019 18:00

ian

Mater will be very happy with me. I sold her BP shares today for a good profit.

Sold mine too.

[ianwwwhite] 05/2/2019 17:57

I'm thinking you better take a bottle of 'Bolly' round to mater while it lasts!

A day like today deserves a celebration! :-)

[bracke] 05/2/2019 17:53

A close just above £20.

I suspect it depends on today's US market whether it moves up or drops back tomorrow.

I'm still thinking 'gap fill'.

[bracke] 05/2/2019 15:36

Spread the risk - Agree. I do not invest in funds but I do spread my own and Mater's investments across a number of shares.


To each his own as we say! - Agree

[bracke] 05/2/2019 15:10

ian

"Ahh so the chart in not able to help then!"
============================================

No it isn't and neither will fundamentals.

"I think I'll stick to the fundamentals then, and of course only invest in good companies which can ride out the market fluctuations :-)"
==================================================================================

A chart will help with market fluctuations but a when a bull market will turn into a bear market is an unknown and it certainly isn't a 'fluctuation'.

The history of the market is littered with "good companies" which did not ride out a bull market. It is said when the tide goes out you see who is swimming naked.

[ianwwwhite] 05/2/2019 14:54

Ahh so the chart in not able to help then!

I think I'll stick to the fundamentals then, and of course only invest in good companies which can ride out the market fluctuations :-)

Edit: I am encouraged by the graphic in my post 56268, which illustrates that for each major reversal there has been a subsequent recovery- a sort of Newtons Law of investment?

[bracke] 05/2/2019 14:09

ian

My post 56412 was not specifically related to AHT but to the complete market.

When the market decides enough is enough the good go with the bad irrespective of fundamentals. However the fall feeds through to all companies resulting in a slow down in business which affects the fundamentals. Depending on events a bull market commences. Look at longer term charts for length of time bull markets run.

At the best of time forecasting what a market or share price will be in six months is a matter of luck and in the current climate it would be miraculous. You simply need to look at forecasts made by so called experts to see how wrong they are. It's why I prefer shorter time frames which I can best monitor through charts.

BTW Disco was supporting a forecast of £25 not £24......every £ counts.

[ianwwwhite] 05/2/2019 13:52

DD

Congratulations on your successful forecast, are you tempted to go double or quits on 2400p ?

[ianwwwhite] 05/2/2019 13:48

Hi bracke,

It's about sentiment, perception (etc)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

In the short term I think you are right, it is apparent that AHT traditionally overshoots or undershoots what might be perceived as 'true value' and I am sure that TA can be useful in understanding such short term movements.

In the longer term, I support the opinion that the price 'reverts to the mean' unless there is a change in the fundamentals.

I understand that you prefer charts to fundamentals, are you able to tell us what the charts tell us about the likely AHT price level in say six months time?

[bracke] 05/2/2019 13:35

Good day Disco

I have spoken to Mater and she thinks this will be far better for you.

[discodave4] 05/2/2019 13:10

Hi brackeMines a pint of old speckled hen please - £20+ :)

[bracke] 05/2/2019 12:42

Good day ian

It will do well if it closes above £20

"So what's changed?"
===================

With AHT and others; nothing. It's why I prefer charts to fundamentals.

It's about sentiment, perception or more likely a desire by the US Markets to drive up from the December low irrespective of anything that is negative. Such is the market until 'they' decide enough is enough and reverse.

[ianwwwhite] 05/2/2019 10:54

Good morning bracke

Give AHT it's due, it's certainly trying!

Amazing to think that since the low of around 1607p on 10th Dec, the price has increased roughly 25%. So what's changed?

[bracke] 05/2/2019 10:41

It didn't stay at £20 very long did it. I expect this mornings gap to fill in the short term.

If/when it does break above £20 the swing high at £20.65 is the next target.

[ianwwwhite] 05/2/2019 10:26

lol!.... not likely, but I think I spotted a gap this morning :-)

[bigbigdave] 05/2/2019 09:12

Gap to 24 quid here?

[ianwwwhite] 05/2/2019 09:00

Looks like the venerable Mrs B's AHT investment has just about broken even, and with the dividend payable tomorrow, may even be showing a modest profit.

OK bracke, it's safe to come out now.... :-)

[ianwwwhite] 30/1/2019 16:44

fenners, thanks for clarifying your thinking, much appreciated.