Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[bracke] 06/12/2018 14:09

Good day uppompeii

This from Post 56116

"Mater is in a similar position to yourself; ISA maxed out. I have a few £ looking for a home so a purchase is under consideration."

I am still considering.

[uppompeii] 06/12/2018 14:04

Is your mater buying bracke?

[bracke] 06/12/2018 11:03

AH! Of course. Silly me.


Things looking somewhat 'bloody' this morning. US Futures are down. DOW is currently down 450 from Tuesday close. Possible support at 24,500 but more at 24,200.

Santa Rally? Perhaps if Mr Trump Tweets everything is ok with China but will he be believed? You can call wolf once too often.

As to 'precious'. If the US Markets continues to drop when it opens that brown dashed line at 1550 in the chart above increases in probability.

Remember the adage...Sell when others are buying and buy when others are selling.

[fenners66] 06/12/2018 08:18

I was working on 39p.....

[bracke] 05/12/2018 15:18

Good day fenners

Am I correct in thinking you are suggesting a divi of 40p for the next full period and therefore an increase of 21% over the last period?

[fenners66] 05/12/2018 15:01

One method for share valuation is of course based upon dividend yield.

If the growth rate from last year is maintained then the dividend yield may this year be around 2.4% at this price.

Is it possible the market has got fed up of waiting for cash to be deployed to the dividend yield and has taken steps to make the yield happen sooner ?

Not withstanding a dividend yield can fail to support a share as well.

If they are making a decision about the dividend to announce with the interims please let it be higher at the expense of the buybacks, according to Bloomberg the US is turning its back on buybacks- and I would rather the cash was put in loyal holders pockets.

[bracke] 05/12/2018 12:46

ian

Ref Mr Trump alias Tariff Man

Create a problem which you can solve and then solve it. You look good to those who support you. Plus what a wonderful trading opportunity for those who may possibly be 'in the know'.

He keeps everyone guessing.

Mater is in a similar position to yourself; ISA maxed out. I have a few £ looking for a home so a purchase is under consideration.

You will see on the chart below that the share price has dropped below 1700 and is at the end of the wick from the last low. A close below 1700 would be indicative of further downside and the next support is some way down.

AHT DAILY

[hatfullofsky] 05/12/2018 12:33

Absolutely crazy price action

[ianwwwhite] 05/12/2018 11:14

Good morning bracke,

Thanks as always for sharing your views.

I think the problem is that Mr T is an inveterate braggard and more than economic with the truth. The China trade talks charade is a case in point.

At the sub 1700 level I would fancy a top up when things calm down, but unfortunately there is no headroom left in my ISA for this year.

Will the venerable Mrs B be averaging down?

[bracke] 05/12/2018 10:53

Good day ian

"I am at a loss to understand why you think that 'gap filling' is the cause of AHTs significant retrace."
===================================================================================

I don't. Whether the gap would have filled without 'events' I will not speculate. My comment relating to gap fill was based on the price action. The gap I was referring to was from Friday 01 November to Monday 03 November.

When I posted 56109 the 'long drop' had not occurred. Events have certainly caused the gap to fill but.........caused another to open.

I have stated previously that when the market takes fright the good go with the bad. Considerations of results, yields, etc are forgotten except by the few who look for the bargain buys.

It is perhaps heartening that the share price again found support at 1700.

On a wider note what a perfect example of a lunatic market. All was wonderful following Mr Trump's tariff agreement, a few days later all is doom and yet the details have not changed. The market has had time to consider them and now decided the agreement is not so good after all. I call it lunatic but odds on some of the lunatics have done very well out of it.......end of semi rant.

Finally, do you fancy a buy for the gap fill?

[riley109] 05/12/2018 10:00

Sure is it's Americas growth forecast.

[discodave4] 04/12/2018 21:33

JPM reiterates overweight, target £23.

[ianwwwhite] 04/12/2018 19:11

Good afternoon bracke

I am at a loss to understand why you think that 'gap filling' is the cause of AHTs significant retrace.

Perhaps you could clarify which gap is to be filled, and why you think that this is more important than the events driving the US market down - Dow currently -713 and URI currently -9.9%?

I fear that something more than AHT 'pre results' positioning is afoot?

Thanks

IW

[bracke] 04/12/2018 16:43

From POST 56107

"A gap fill would not be appreciated by those who are long."
============================================================

But it appears that where it is headed. Perhaps a gap fill to 'clear the decks' before the Q2 results on Tuesday ready for a break and hold above 1800.

[fenners66] 03/12/2018 15:04

US construction announced as down 0.1% according to Bloomberg they were expecting a gain

[bracke] 03/12/2018 11:01

Mr Trump now has Mr Jinping as his new friend. Talk of increased tariffs has ceased, the markets love it and I presume Mr Trump had a few long trades in place.

A 100 point gap up this morning and well above 1800. A retrace is to be expected once the initial euphoria subsides and profits are taken. If this is to be a move back to higher levels 1800 needs to hold to act as a launch level following the results.

A gap fill would not be appreciated by those who are long.

EDIT

Ref my first para.

"The bad news is that this deal opened a 90-day window to negotiate a deal not just on trade but also on protecting intellectual property, ending the forced transfer of technology, and more. If those negotiations aren’t successful, then it’s tariff time."

[ianwwwhite] 03/12/2018 10:23

Fenner's competition update 3/12/18:

fenners.....7p
DD4.........6.75p (reiterated 3/12/18)
Ian.........6.5p
Smcni1968...6p
Bracke......6.5p
palwing.....7p

Looks like it's possible we'll be needing a tiebreaker..

[discodave4] 03/12/2018 09:33

No tie, 6.75.Will pm who to make the cheques out to, thank you ?

[fenners66] 03/12/2018 09:17

That looks like a desperate guess palwing !

[palwing32] 03/12/2018 09:06

Santa rally starting early? Bodes well hopefully. GLA. ps. Ever otimistic 7p

[ianwwwhite] 03/12/2018 08:58

Yes, I used the word 'astute' advisedly...

In the meantime AHT has made a great start this morning, looks like it's on steroids!

[fenners66] 03/12/2018 08:43

So we could have a tie then......

[ianwwwhite] 01/12/2018 14:52

Good day bracke,

Well done, 6.5p? ...an astute choice if I may say so. Good luck!
.

[bracke] 01/12/2018 13:08

Good day ian

"However, over the long term, the share price trend is self evidently influenced by company performance and in time any mismatch tends to be reduced or extinguished, by the activities of 'value investors' for example."
=================================================================================

Over the long term we're dead!


"My view is that at 2400 AHT had got ahead of itself, and at 1750 we have now slipped behind. We will be better able to judge once the Q2 figures are revealed."
=================================================================================

Yes I agree but maybe it has to drop lower to draw in buyers. As you post Q2 results may be good enough to send it up; keeping it there is another matter.


"On the matter of the 'weight of the divi' I would have thought that you would have formed an opinion when doing 'due diligence' for Mrs B's recent purchase?"
=================================================================================

When purchasing for Mater my thought was capital appreciation. I did look at the divi and noted the progression. Not wishing to be considered a grouch I will enter into the festive spirit. You will see my forecast added o the list below. I would have considered a larger figure if the buyback cash had been available for distribution. (You didn't think I would let that pass without comment did you!)


fenners.....7p
DD4.........6.75p
Ian.........6.5p
Smcni1968...6p
Bracke......6.5p

[fenners66] 30/11/2018 22:55

Of course I liked this bit -

"Additional cash would further de-gear the business"

I am watching IRV implode under debt once the market turns - debt is a very dirty word.

I still think the directors should anticipate this and get paying it down whilst the sun is shining.