Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[discodave4] 19/6/2018 08:00

Excellent numbers, annual growth rate increasing, although on a PE of 18, PEG is only 0.69.Free cash flow £386m! and £200m on share buyback.Capex to remain at £1.2bn which is very positive IMO.DD

[james97] 19/6/2018 07:55

Slightly down on forecast, and growth in 4th quarter a bit slower than rest of year. Possibly presentation will give explanation.

[discodave4] 18/6/2018 22:31

Good luck everyone for tomorrow.Pre tax £934m, eps 130p are the forecasts.

[american idiot] 18/6/2018 11:30

Free 100 Plus1 coins for you for clicking this ADVFN link :-

[bracke] 18/6/2018 11:26

I have covered my shorts for a loss of 135 points. Previous experience of AHT meant that I kept my stake at a low level with the intention of adding to the shorts as/when the share price moved as expected.

The first short was the loser. My logic for taking it was correct. My reasoning was based on previous price action in similar circumstances. My error was in failing to cover it when it did not conform to expectations.

The second and third shorts cancelled each other out.

I now keep my powder dry and watch with interest tomorrows action.

[kilgallp] 18/6/2018 10:33

No problem Ianw.

[bracke] 18/6/2018 10:11

I note Friday was a high volume day with a slight win for the sellers and down as I type. Is this all part of a cunning plan to 'whizz' it up tomorrow?

[ianwwwhite] 15/6/2018 18:46

Odd sort of day, after an attempt to break out over 2400p, it looks like AHT was eventually pulled down by the sell off on Wall St this afternoon to end at 2371p, -13p.

In the meantime, the share buyback total today was an odd number, 41,586 which seems to indicate there is a target spend of around £200mil, prior to results day on the 19th.

Interested to see whether the target of £1 billion share buyback is re-affirmed on results day or, if free cash flow is as positive as we expect, how this is to be dispersed.

Have a good weekend all, looking forward to next weeks results.... and possibly an increase in the dividend might be on the cards?

[bracke] 13/6/2018 18:19

It wasn't until into July that it recovered above what it had opened at on the 13th.

The continuing rise thereafter proved the concern was ill founded. Probably a little manipulation to lower the share price for buying purposes.

[ianwwwhite] 13/6/2018 18:03

bracke

I hope kilgallp wont mind me re-posting this from 14th June last year, which probably sums up what we all were thinking at the time:

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Post 53857 14th June 2017: 'Not for the first time, I'm wondering if I should be in this game. I liked everything I heard in yesterday's presentation. I thought the results were good and the prospects for the coming year even better.

So when mid-morning the shares were up 40p+, I was not surprised. To see them down 40p+ I found unbelievable. Today down another 40p+. Inexplicable to my mind!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Unbelievable!! Hopefully this time it will be different...

[ianwwwhite] 13/6/2018 17:47

bracke

You are right, I believe results day was 13th June last year, and I think you will see from your charts that AHT failed in it's assault on the 1700 level, closing at 1573 (I am happy to be corrected if this is not the case)

MV Agusta? lol! I almost bought one once!

[bracke] 13/6/2018 17:28

ian

If I remember correctly (there will be plenty to correct me if I am wrong) at the last results the share price did not rise as expected. The profits were in line but something else wasn't, fenners will remember. Barring a similar situation I would expect a spike up particularly if it has dropped back further prior to results day.

Per Angusta Ad Augusta......maybe. Although I was unaware the Romans had motorcycles.

[ianwwwhite] 13/6/2018 17:05

Good day bracke

I get the impression that things are evenly balanced at present after the recent retrace:

Date..... Close..+/-
22/05/2018 2362 11
23/05/2018 2310 -52
24/05/2018 2320 10
25/05/2018 2334 14
29/05/2018 2300 -34
30/05/2018 2301 1
31/05/2018 2331 30
01/06/2018 2350 19
04/06/2018 2361 11
05/06/2018 2369 8
06/06/2018 2389 20
07/06/2018 2398 9
08/06/2018 2375 -23
11/06/2018 2400 25
12/06/2018 2348 -52
13/06/2018 2372 24

However there is plenty of time for more turbulence before the results next week.

As a long term holder I am basically neutral at present, neither a buyer nor a seller, but I would repurchase the small number of shares I sold at 23.68 in May if the price fell substantially below this in the coming weeks.

In the meantime, I think a more suitable motto for you might be:
Per Angusta Ad Augusta ?

What do you think ?

P.S. for goodness sake stay away from the vino, this causes more problems than it solves, so they tell me! :-)

[bracke] 13/6/2018 16:30

Definitely in vino veritas.

[uppompeii] 13/6/2018 16:03

Indeed, though if I had to choose between an Elite Guru and, in vino veritas, I believe the latter may hold more sway...

[bracke] 13/6/2018 13:21

Good day ian

Following yesterdays drop a retrace up today was to be expected. The interest is whether it will continue up to test 2400 or not. You will note it has dropped back into the rising channel.

As they said in Rome.....cave venditor. uppomeii will appreciate this.

[2flatpack] 13/6/2018 11:41

Looks to be on the way up for the results so I have closed my shorts.
Fingers duly burnt.
Hope to recoup on the fall after results.
Cheers

[floridamassive] 12/6/2018 15:45

Ashtead Group plc 11.19% Potential Upside Indicated by Liberum Capital Liberum Capital issues a broker note on Ashtead Group PLC. 11 June 2018, 11:20 Source - SMW. Liberum Capital today reaffirms its buy investment rating on Ashtead Group PLC (LON:AHT) and raised its price target to 2650p. Plus, British Bulls are now also recommending BUY on this.

[ianwwwhite] 12/6/2018 15:02

Hi bracke

Looks like option 3 is favourite, which may provide a welcome cooling off period for those who were in danger of finding themselves in hot water. 🐸🐸🐸

[fenners66] 12/6/2018 14:12

I reckon about 129.5p a share earnings ( pre share buybacks - because I have not run the calcs for that..)
That would have us around 18.5x at 2400

Bit steep?

Happy for them to out do the forecast though.

[pm032017] 12/6/2018 13:26

Suspect today's drop is caused by big rise yesterday and the drop in USD today. What a golden opportunity to buy AHT at this ridiculous price, just topped up by a modest amount. With City analysts forecasting AHT to announce £1+ billion profits on the final results announcement day on 19th June, plus with £1B share buyback program on currently, this is a no-brainer. Ashtead is the best performing stock in my portfolio.

[bracke] 12/6/2018 10:53

Good day Disco

Last time I was boiled!


Good day fenners

Three possibilities before the results:

1 Push it above 2400 and head for 2500.

2 Hold it at 2400 and await results.

3 Drop it down from 2400 leaving room for a rise at the results.

[fenners66] 11/6/2018 19:56

Just wondering if all this share price appreciation is setting the bar a little too high for results day ?

[discodave4] 11/6/2018 18:53

brackePlease make sure you don't get burnt! - in both meanings of the word!.DD

[bracke] 11/6/2018 17:51

Still trying to make its mind up about 2400.