Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[mattcookson] 18/5/2018 11:43

You bunch of lousy shorters, shame on you!!

[ianwwwhite] 18/5/2018 11:40

Hi bracke

Good to know you haven't bet the farm on your AHT short, although, for the life of me,I have no idea why I am worried about your short!!!

I agree with your 'retrace' comment, it does seem a bit overdue ..

[bracke] 18/5/2018 10:54

Good day ian

You may well be correct about the price action AHT does like to confound us shorters but I am still holding to my 'stretched' view. I can see my epithet 'He thought it was stretched but alas poor bracke was compressed'.

When I opened my short it was with a small stake so no great pain being felt. My intention was/is to add to the trade when it started moving in my direction.

You may remember when I posted the last chart I said that the red declining PF was not confirmed, I chose to take a 'flyer' which is always a risk and true to AHT tradition it has refused to comply but as a minimum it is overdue for a retrace.

Hopefully clarky is ok and living well off his AHT profits. I think rescuer knew him well perhaps he can enlighten us.

[ianwwwhite] 17/5/2018 20:10

Hi bracke,

I'm getting a distinct "Déjà Vu" feeling about the current price action, hopefully I am wrong, but I would urge caution... AHT has risen to unforseen heights with 'no visible means of support' before!

On another matter, I believe one of the mainstays of our board, clarky5150 has not posted anything anywhere since February, I do hope everything is ok?
.

[mattcookson] 17/5/2018 19:41

Come 19th June (full year results day) this will be trading well over £25. Remember the Q3 results numbers?? “For the first nine months of the year, rental revenue increased a healthy 21% and operating profit climbed 22%. Free cash flow jumped from £68m to £179m, and earnings per share on an underlying basis rose an impressive 30% to 102.4p.”

[mattcookson] 17/5/2018 19:26

Don’t hang about folks, this beauty will be trading over 2500 soon!! Still not too late to pick this up on the cheap :). £1B share buyback is in full force. SOLID BUY!!

[bracke] 17/5/2018 15:22

Barring a 'black swan' to sent the share price soaring through 2300 I suspect it is close to a turn. Am I whistling in the dark....maybe but the Weekly chart appears to be heading for an MACD 3 Push. Such a pattern does not guarantee success but it increases the probability.

Not adding just yet.

[ianwwwhite] 17/5/2018 09:36

Good day 2flatpack & bracke

Thanks for keeping us up to date with your current thinking.

Recent price action has confirmed to me that shorting AHT is not for the faint hearted, but it is certainly instructive to watch from the sidelines!

[bracke] 17/5/2018 09:22

Good day 2flat

I also considered adding last evening but decided to wait until this morning to watch the price action. So far it has not moved much and as I will be out for a large part of the day I will wait before adding.

[2flatpack] 16/5/2018 19:06

Evening All,
Still holding the short and added.
I'm beginning to think the etoro traders may have something to teach me having only lost 6 to 8% over the last year.
The share price has moved above my long term up channel, so lets see what tomorrow brings.
Cheers

[ianwwwhite] 16/5/2018 18:17

AHT proved to be a lot more resilient than I expected after this mornings start, and against a background of rising US and UK bond yields and inflation concerns.

Bracke you were right to be cautious!

And closing at 2280? Truly amazing! I would not be surprised by a retrace, but my preferred strategy is still 'hunker down, do nothing' :-)

[bracke] 16/5/2018 17:37

To-day were All Time Highs - Closing 2280 and Intraday 2283.

[bracke] 16/5/2018 16:47

Not for the first time and certainly not for the last AHT has caught me out.

Following the candle long upper shadow I previously referred to I was looking for the share price to drop as it had done previously but no. The warning was there the next day when there was minimal drop.

Although the MACD 15 MINUTE did break down and there was a small retrace it has now pulled back up. I am now looking at the 4 HOUR and DAILY MACDs'.

The share price appear to be 'stretched' and on balance I think it will as a minimum retrace. It has reached the ML of the blue PF which does not mean it cannot rise higher but it improves the probability of a retrace/minor swing low.

[bracke] 16/5/2018 11:23

Good day ian

Maybe but far from counting my chickens.

[ianwwwhite] 16/5/2018 10:53

Thanks bracke

Looks like things are starting to move your way?
.

[bracke] 16/5/2018 10:22

The usual spike up at opening but easing back as I type.

Ref Post 55233

MACD 15 MINUTE - The faster moving average is continuing down.

MACD 4 HOUR - The faster moving average is now directly on top of the slower moving average. Now waiting to see if it continues down or bounces off.

[bracke] 15/5/2018 16:42

I am paying close attention to the MACD on the 15 minute and 4 hour charts.
Why you ask?

They are currently the best indicators (for me) of likely price action.

MACD 15 MINUTE - The faster moving average has just crossed down below the slower moving average which suggests that momentum is easing if only on the shorter timeframe.

MACD 4 HOUR - Currently the fast moving average is just above the slow moving average. It may 'kiss' and bounce off. If it does it is a warning that the share price may move higher. If it breaks through it improves the probability of a successful trade.


Exciting isn't it!

[bracke] 15/5/2018 14:53

SP back to test the high.

[bracke] 14/5/2018 11:25

fenners

CI...better late than never.

[bracke] 14/5/2018 11:23

Good day ian

"I will watch and learn!"
========================

So will I!!

[ianwwwhite] 13/5/2018 10:05

Thanks bracke, looks like a plan. I will watch and learn!

[fenners66] 12/5/2018 22:41

You have of course got the curse of a Chronic Investor buy rec this week on your side....

[bracke] 12/5/2018 13:16

Hopefully 2flat and I will have made a profit and covered the shorts before 19 June.

I am expecting the share price to drop relatively quickly. If it refuses to do so it likely indicates my short was premature and time to exit.

[ianwwwhite] 11/5/2018 18:16

Upcoming quarter 4 and year-end results due 19 June 2018 may provide some further price support in due course?

I'm hoping for the usual exceedingly good results, an increase in free cash flow, and enhanced dividend... albeit some of this may already be in the share price, and we mustn't be too greedy! :-)

[discodave4] 11/5/2018 18:03

bracke & 2flat,Good luck.......you pair of %#@£& lol.RSI overbought so be interesting to see how it goes.DD