Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[discodave4] 06/6/2018 13:37

Ian / BrackeIan ditto, buy and hold until the story changes. However, do want to get some into my ISA so contemplating selling some before results and hopefully buying back cheaper and get some freebies......nice dilemma to have but doesn't make actioning it any easier!.Bracke - Thanks for your thoughts from a TA perspective, helps my decision (even though the laws of probability & stats appear not to always apply to AHT!).DD

[bracke] 06/6/2018 11:34

I wouldn't mind "occasional"!!

[ianwwwhite] 06/6/2018 11:32

Good day bracke,

Thanks for the update and good to see that everything is under control!

I imagine that depending on the quality of the results we may see a bit of a shakeout following the announcement, which might provide an opportunity for those of a 'shorting' bent.

Good luck with your positions, we 'longs' don't begrudge you an occasional winning trade!

[bracke] 06/6/2018 10:41

Good day ian and Disco

Shorts still held and underwater....nothing new there is there.

So what to do. The current loss is not a bother so in no hurry to close.

I view the chart and there are a number of features which suggest it is worth holding the shorts but I am mindful that AHT laughs in the face of negative features. It does appear intent on reaching 2400 soon.

The Plan

Continue to hold the shorts and perhaps add following a spike/rise following the results.

This froggie is hopeful of avoiding another hot bath!

[ianwwwhite] 05/6/2018 22:55

DD

I wouldn't be surprised if we get the usual bounce and dip around the results, but my philosophy is to hold fast, 'do nothing', provided the results are good.

Indeed having sold 10% of my holding on 22 May at 2368p (post 55262) to reduce risk, I would be happy to buy them back again if there is a significant pullback notwithstanding good results, and the overbought position should hopefully resolve itself in the fullness of time....

[discodave4] 05/6/2018 22:14

Thanks Ian, yes i knew you were referring to our couple of brave shorters but thought it may provide some useful info for them......or not!.Let's hope the results don't result (no pun intended) in the normal dip, although I'm beginning to fear it will if this keeps going up as in overbought territory now.DD

[ianwwwhite] 05/6/2018 22:00

Hi DD

Interesting, thanks. I was thinking specifically of a couple of posters on this board who had declared positions recently.

I agree shorting AHT is definitely not for the faint hearted, or me!

[discodave4] 05/6/2018 19:59

The last 13 months shorts positions (from Euroclear) :-May 2017 5.3%June 2017 5.05%July 2017 4.63%August 2017 4.12%September 2017 4.47%October 2017 5.22%November 2017 6.03%December 2017 6.75%January 2018 6.12%February 2018 5.48%March 2018 5.76%April 2018 5.33%May 2018 4.44%Don't know what to conclude from this!, possibly nothing, or close shorts after year end and open again before H1 results?. IMO there are better less risky short positions to hold rather than AHT where you are more likely than not to get your fingers burnt!.DD

[ianwwwhite] 05/6/2018 18:26

In the meantime, AHT is looking quite resilient and flirting with intra-day all-time highs.

I wonder how our shorters are doing, hopefully not in too deep, and keeping their heads above water!

[ianwwwhite] 05/6/2018 18:18

RNS confirms results to be announced on 19th June, two weeks to go.

In the meantime I calculate the current position for the share buyback is that 9,282,891 shares are held in Treasury at an average cost of £20.63p, and total spend of £191.46m.

By extrapolation, it looks like this will be around 10 million shares purchased by results day, and spend of £200m out of the original £500m target,(or possibly £1b target subject to confirmation).

.

[mattcookson] 04/6/2018 22:29

Come 19th June, final results announcement date, these will be trading well over £25. Remember the Q3 results?? “For the first nine months of the year, rental revenue increased a healthy 21% and operating profit climbed 22%. Free cash flow jumped from £68m to £179m, and earnings per share on an underlying basis rose an impressive 30% to 102.4p.” SOLID BUY!!

[lairddavid] 04/6/2018 15:31

Thats old age for you IBROX.

[lairddavid] 31/5/2018 23:39

Hi Rescuer, good to see you are still around. Hope all is well. Been a long time since our alternative shareholder meeting...cant remember where it was. (Granton ?)
Met some nice people, Hatto,, JONNYM, Filmmaker etc.

[rescuer] 31/5/2018 22:21

been a long time people - interesting times stateside, the new import tax will impact worldwide, Ashtead have a huge exposure to the US mkt and this is going to leave them hugely well positioned to monopolise on European opportunities medium and long term.

Suddenly interested again - kick on AHT - good luck

g

[2flatpack] 31/5/2018 14:48

If it goes above the previous high I will re think,If it fails to make a new high I will open another short.
cheers

[bracke] 31/5/2018 13:14

Answer to the options in the above post.

It's the first part of 1 (gap filled). Now for the second part.

[bracke] 29/5/2018 11:14

GAPS

Yes I know booorrrrinng but never the less worth watching.

On Friday the share price rose to fill the gap following the high on Tuesday 22nd. The gap was filled bar four points but to all intends and purposes it may be considered a fill. After filling the gap price dropped to end the day with a doji.

To-day the share price has opened with....another gap which has 'jumped' the Thursday/Friday gap. All very gappy.

Where does that place the share price which is holding on to 2300? Options:

1 Fill the gap up to Friday's close and either continue up or fall back.

2 Ignore the upside gap and continue down.

If it drops lower I have first likely support at 2257. If that fails then 2186.

'IF' it is to be a 250 point drop which AHT does (please check if you doubt) that would take it to 2130 at which coincidentally the ML is located.

[bracke] 25/5/2018 14:33

Good day uppompeii

Yes indeed it was.

You will remember the cause of my near undoing was my arch nemesis....AHT......and here we are again. This time I consider my chances are better and I do not intend to be going over the Reichenbach Falls again, it's long drop, I got wet and its a long swim back to land.

[uppompeii] 25/5/2018 14:06

Oh how tenuous that Elite Guru status was a few short years ago....

[bracke] 25/5/2018 13:31

optomistic

I commiserate over your potential AHT gain not to be. I would have been in a similar situation but no good reminiscing over what might have been.

Carney.......likes to meddle in politics too much for my liking (he is giving a speech this afternoon at 2.20). Perhaps he should be told to keep quiet and just get on with the job as his predecessors did.

As you know us Elite Gurus employ very scientific systems and methods of analysis which I am not permitted to divulge. I can say that I have consulted the runes with a dose of cat entrails thrown in for good measure and 530 'appeared'. It may retrace back up before its arrival but there is a fair probability of 530.

Ref Post 55273

Looks like it's going to be 2372.

[optomistic] 25/5/2018 12:34

bracke I reckon you will have to talk with M Carney about the £/$.
530 would be a bit harsh a treatment for BP...but small potatoes after the potential £80K that has gone adrift with AHT for me :-/