Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[bracke] 18/9/2015 15:07

Good day ian

I'm still peering through the fog.

"In the meantime this is beginning to look like another opportunity to top up holdings, before the usual 'santa rally' up to Xmas, methinks"
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I think something similar was being said before the rate decision. You will note that the share price is just about clinging on to the bottom of the range.

You could take a chance and buy now or you could wait until it breaks and holds above the top of the range. You pays your money and takes your chance.....or not.

[ianwwwhite] 18/9/2015 14:59

bracke

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'An uneasy silence spread over the thread like a thick fog'
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Nothing like a mixed metaphor to calm the nerves!

In the meantime this is beginning to look like another opportunity to top up holdings, before the usual 'santa rally' up to Xmas, methinks

[bracke] 18/9/2015 10:55

'An uneasy silence spread over the thread like a thick fog'


No rate increase but apart from the usual spike the market is thinking further ahead.



But at least the share price has held in the range so far.

[broadwood] 17/9/2015 08:26

Fingers crossed topical.

[topicel] 17/9/2015 08:10

Broadwood, I was watching this morning and while 50:50 was mentioned in passing the guest and general opinion was 70:30. Good fun watching the two locking horns, not that I understood much about it!

Either way, the market voted yesterday, didn't it? And it wouldn't have gone up if they felt Miss Yellen was gonna hike...

Whatever, it will be a sideways day although nice to see us hit recent highs at the start of £10.22...no rise and £11 will come into view promptly IMHO.

Topicel

[broadwood] 16/9/2015 17:09

I see that article was written yesterday.

CNBC indicate there has been a substantial change in those odds today.

Anyway, we'll know soon enough.

[broadwood] 16/9/2015 16:47

50/50 - CNBC.

An hour ago.

[bracke] 16/9/2015 16:45

Invested is one thing, trading another.

From what I have been reading the chances of a rate rise are assessed at 25% to 33%.

[broadwood] 16/9/2015 16:17

Seems very strange. The market is up quite strongly today and yet there is supposedly a 50/50 chance there will be a Fed rate rise.

You would have expected more selling with odds like that - so maybe there's more to it.

Now if Janet increases rates by the minimum amount but at the same time includes 'dovish' comments, that may well not unsettle the market unduly.

Just my view

[broadwood] 16/9/2015 16:03

I shall be 85% invested.

[bracke] 16/9/2015 15:14

I will certainly avoid having any trades open. To do otherwise is a straight forward gamble........unless you have a line to Mrs Yellen.

If no rate rise the upward movement should be sufficient to push the share price up and out of the range or vice versa.

[broadwood] 16/9/2015 15:04

Tomorrow evening - 7.15pm- will be crucial.

So does your method advocate taking all money off the table before then?

[bracke] 16/9/2015 14:54

"Your 'coalface' remark seemed to suggest I wasn't up with the latest events when it comes to share price and price action."
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Not at all. I don't know the methods you use but I do know they need to be close to the 'coalface'.

"I'm merely saying that I think am, as far as a private investor can be that is."
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Fair enough.




"Perhaps you can elucidate your valuation/momentum theory."
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I don't have a theory. I have a system/method based on:

Andrews Pitchfork and allied Mod Schiff.

S/R

Price action.

[broadwood] 16/9/2015 14:28

Your 'coalface' remark seemed to suggest I wasn't up with the latest events when it comes to share price and price action.

I'm merely saying that I think am, as far as a private investor can be that is.

If that's not the correct interpretation of your remarks, so be it.

Perhaps you can elucidate your valuation/momentum theory.

[bracke] 16/9/2015 14:14

I am confused.

If you are "not unaware" you are presumably 'aware'. You use fundamentals to assess which includes share price and price action as the base data which you use to determine performance.

[broadwood] 16/9/2015 14:05

Certainly have to disagree there.

I hold about 50 stocks which I review regularly - so definitely I'm not unaware of the share price and price action in any of them. If they don't measure up for any reason, they go.

[bracke] 16/9/2015 13:28

The share price and price action.

[broadwood] 16/9/2015 13:08

You lost me there.

[bracke] 16/9/2015 13:04

I would not presume to advise you. I would simply say that the nearer you can get to the 'coalface' the better.

[broadwood] 16/9/2015 13:00

'but some methods of assessment are better than others'.

Such as?

[bracke] 16/9/2015 10:51

Good day broadwood

Having an exit plan i.e. change in fundamentals is better than nothing but will it inform in sufficient time.

There are no guarantees in buying and selling shares as you well know. We assess and act or not but some methods of assessment are better than others.


The share price remains within the range.

[broadwood] 16/9/2015 08:08

bracke - I would only sell if the company fundamentals change - which they show no sign of doing.

Admittedly China is a threat to world economies as is Fed tightening. But what's the guarantee of buying back cheaper?

[discodave4] 15/9/2015 19:11

"considerably less"Wash your mouth out!, haha. Or get caught out as AHT tends to do its own thing and buy at considerably more!.DD

[bracke] 15/9/2015 17:44

broadwood

"'m not unduly concerned with the short term view. I bought these for the second time in 2011 at 201p and held ever since. Whilst management continue to perform as they do I see no point in not staying with them."
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Fair comment but there is more than a little intraday price action occurring.

The reasons for the share price fall are largely out of AHT control. The current major aspect is China.

If you could sell now and buyback later at considerably less would that not be worth considering?