Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[bracke] 21/10/2014 16:03

The market has shrugged off the nervousness and moved up.

AHT gone straight for 975 and achieved it. It may retrace before attempting the move to 1015 but I should remember this is AHT!

The FED have a Policy meeting on 28-29 October.

[bracke] 20/10/2014 17:34

Good afternoon clarky

The market has pulled back up since the drop but it is nervous. QE ends this month unless the FED decide to extend it. The market has become addicted to cheap money and although interest rates are low and appear likely to stay that way for some time to come it still wants its QE.

I had a good look at the chart over the weekend.

I suspect that the share price will drop back to test the 920 zone. If that holds an attempt at 975 is likely. If it achieves that then next target 1015.

If it breaks below 920 then down to the high 800s'.

Watch the price action around 920. A close below it is ominous.

[clarky5150] 20/10/2014 17:11

Was 860 a missed buy opportunity Bracke or do you feel we will get another stab?

[bracke] 20/10/2014 16:49

SP closed on the Daily SMA 100.

[discodave4] 17/10/2014 21:30

Berenberg: buy, target now 1170 up from 1145.GLDD

[ianwwwhite] 17/10/2014 15:51

bracke

lol!

[bracke] 17/10/2014 15:50

ian

Alf will be rolling in his grave!

[ianwwwhite] 17/10/2014 15:26

Up 31p? Are Ashtead Fridays back again?

Gaps to right of them,
Gaps to left of them,
Gaps in front of them
Volley'd and thunder'd;
Storm'd at with sells and shorts,
Boldly they rode and well,
Into the jaws of Death,
Into the mouth of Hell
Rode the valiant Ashteadeers.

(with apologies to Alfred, Lord Tennyson for poetic licence)

[2flatpack] 17/10/2014 14:52

placed a shall bet at the SMA 100
finding new ways of loosing money every day.
thinking about it , its the same old way with a new name.
cheers

[discodave4] 16/10/2014 20:47

Nice bounce today, same again tomorrow please!.URI up 7% at the moment.GLDD

[ianwwwhite] 16/10/2014 15:30

Bracke,

Re post 50115, thanks for your views.

[bracke] 16/10/2014 10:54

Glaws




Look at the 3 month chart above. Observe the candle which made the low on 08 August.Look where it closed 869.5. Look where it opened the next day 878.5.

Has the share price returned to the closing price on the low candle i.e. 869.5?

[bracke] 16/10/2014 10:40

ian

"I wonder whether, if you subscribe to the ripples, waves, and tide metaphor of stock market movements, you would agree that the gaps are influencing the ripples/waves, but the global economic context is driving the tide?"
===============================================================================

Yes.

[fenners66] 16/10/2014 07:52

URI -
Reaffirms Full Year Outlook and Raises Free Cash Flow Range

United Rentals, Inc. (NYSE:URI) today announced financial results for the third quarter 20141. Total revenue was $1.544 billion and rental revenue was $1.315 billion, compared with $1.311 billion and $1.138 billion, respectively, for the same period last year. On a GAAP basis, the company reported third quarter net income of $192 million, or $1.84 per diluted share, compared with $143 million, or $1.35 per diluted share, for the same period last year.

Adjusted EPS2 for the quarter was $2.20 per diluted share, compared with $1.63 per diluted share for the same period last year. Adjusted EBITDA3 was $761 million and adjusted EBITDA margin was a company record 49.3% for the quarter.

Third Quarter 2014 Highlights

Rental revenue (which includes owned equipment rental revenue, re-rent revenue and ancillary items) increased 15.6% year-over-year. Within rental revenue, owned equipment rental revenue increased 15.4%, reflecting year-over-year increases of 9.5% in the volume of equipment on rent and 4.7% in rental rates. The company has reaffirmed its outlook for a full-year increase in rental rates of approximately 4.5%, and full year total revenue in a range of $5.55 billion to $5.65 billion.
Adjusted EBITDA was $761 million and adjusted EBITDA margin was 49.3%, an increase of $119 million and 30 basis points, respectively, from the same period last year. The company has reaffirmed its outlook for full year adjusted EBITDA in a range of $2.65 billion to $2.70 billion.
ROIC was 8.4% for the 12 months ended September 30, 2014, an increase of 1.3 percentage points from the 12 months ended September 30, 2013.
Time utilization increased 70 basis points year-over-year to 71.5%. The company has reaffirmed its outlook for full year time utilization of approximately 68.5%.
The company generated $140 million of proceeds from used equipment sales at an adjusted gross margin of 47.9%, compared with $102 million and 48.0% for the same period last year.4
Flow-through, which represents the year-over-year change in adjusted EBITDA divided by the year-over-year change in total revenue, was 51.1% for the quarter.

[glaws2] 16/10/2014 07:39

Bracke - can I just clarify how you are defining 'gaps' - do you include the wick of the candle stick as part of the price action or just the open and close ? I ask because (if you are including wicks) the only gap I can see (using sharescope) is between 865 and 890 on March 1 - 4.

I'm sure I'm missing something so if you state the dates of the gap that would be most informative.

[discodave4] 15/10/2014 22:50

2flatpack,Your welcome, just regret profit taking in May, should have just held.....Aaah well live and learn.No ramp intended but there has to be a good 25%-30% profit to be had here over the next year.GLDD

[2flatpack] 15/10/2014 22:32

At last someone who agrees with me
Cheers disco

[discodave4] 15/10/2014 22:23

2flatpack,RE: URI Q3 results, Michael Kneeland CEO commented:-"While we reported very strong results, we believe they reflect just a fraction of what our company can achieve over multiple years in the forecasted upcycle. More immediately, we believe that the current uncertainty in the financial markets relates to global concerns, and not North America."GLDD

[discodave4] 15/10/2014 22:10

2flatpack,Will probably just continue to hold, may even top up - it's dropped about 13% in the last 10 days, down 19% from its 52 week high in Sept, PE now 19, PEG 0.4, on next years forecast earnings PE 15, PEG 0.7, so good value IMV.Read an interesting article from today's Telegraph by Tom Stevenson, extract below:"At times like these the best thing to do is usually nothing at all. An investor who remained fully invested in the market during the 20 years from 1994 would have made a cumulative return of over 300pc. One who missed just the 10 best days in the market by withdrawing during periods of volatility would have reduced their total return by two thirds.Short-term volatility is the price that stock market investors pay for long-term outperformance".GLDD

[2flatpack] 15/10/2014 21:55

URI up 98pts. 1.05%
Q3 results just released
Reaffirms full year outlook.
Cheers

[2flatpack] 15/10/2014 21:46

disco
Its your money not bracke's so flip a coin
and as you say wtfdik
Cheers

[discodave4] 15/10/2014 20:00

Gap at 870 or bounce back above 200SMA.....wtfdik!, and would not dare to doubt the Master Gap Guru....bracke.GLDD

[ianwwwhite] 15/10/2014 19:22

bracke

AS always, thanks for your views.

I wonder whether, if you subscribe to the ripples, waves, and tide metaphor of stock market movements, you would agree that the gaps are influencing the ripples/waves, but the global economic context is driving the tide?

In any event, as a committed long term holder, I will continue to watch (and hold) with interest!

[bracke] 15/10/2014 18:51

ian

Look at the price action following the gap fill. What did it do?

Yes macro global events are the reason given for the market fall. Why on the retraces did the share price go no further than the gap fill?

"to make a few shekels over the last fortnight?"
=============================================

Not on AHT.

[ianwwwhite] 15/10/2014 18:38

Hi bracke,

Re your 'Anyone who thinks that gaps are of no assistance to trading/investing should look at the price action over the past ten days.' - would you kindly elaborate?

I am under the impression that AHTs price, in common with most of the market is being driven by 'macro' global events, particularly poor USA economic data, and that the AHT gap filling might be considered incidental to the bigger picture?

However I am always happy to be corrected, and wonder whether you have been able to exploit your knowledge of 'gap theory' to make a few shekels over the last fortnight?