Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[bracke] 06/8/2014 10:34

Disco

Thank you.

I a poet and didn't know it!

I do try to express myself in trading as in 'normal' life. In a clear manner. I do not see the point of convolution for the sake of it.


fingers

Thank you

Always nice to read from you and the clarity of your charts.


As to the share price your chart covers it. The share price was barely clinging onto support but since you posted the chart it has slipped.

The probability of dropping to the Daily SMA 200 is high and maybe down to the long term trendline at 803 which has been running since mid 2012.

[fingers xxd] 05/8/2014 21:47

Hi Bracke,

I have been closely following your analysis with interest.
Please keep up the good work.

[discodave4] 05/8/2014 20:41

Bracke,Your feedback, as ever, is very much appreciated, thanks.Too many other TA's fail miserably (IMV) in translating their opinions/findings in a way that a simple layman like myself can understand - perhaps that's their aim in maintaining the perception of a black art, who knows. With yourself however, it's a pleasure reading your well communicated TA views which even I can understand - they are succinct and, forgive me for saying, somewhat poetic.GLDD

[bracke] 05/8/2014 10:57

Yesterday it appeared that the share price having tested support was satisfied all was well and moved up but it got 'cold feet' at 900 and thought better of it.

It appears to want another look at support. Looking at the 3 Month chart above you will see it did much the same in early July before deciding that support was ok and off it went to 960...........but sentiment then was different to now, will it repeat?

There have been no major shareholder sells reported but the Director selling was not positive.

[bracke] 05/8/2014 10:46

Disco

You make a fair point.

The Daily SMA 200 is a macro 'traditional' level for considering the state of a share. It is a matter of perception and perhaps self fulfilment.

It may well be that some shares do react more to another SMA, you would have to input other levels to a chart and assess the price action.

If you look at the AHT Daily chart with SMA 200 you will see it periodically returns to the SMA 200. Currently it is relatively close to that level but there is no 'rule' that it has to drop to it.

Some shares go for years before touching the level but if you think about it the level will drop to the share price eventually.

[discodave4] 04/8/2014 23:32

Bracke,Does it have to be the 200SMA? (Is that the norm), could it be 150SMA @ 873?...apologies, just trying to pick your brains. Do see that the 200 is a better fit, just don't like the idea of 828! lol.Think I will stick to looking at tea leaves! (no offence intended).GLDD

[bracke] 04/8/2014 10:11

SP retesting support.

Support or a visit to the Daily SMA 200 at 828?

Perhaps a view from our 'Dippy' Guru?

[bracke] 03/8/2014 11:15

uppompeii

Are you suggesting that there is more 'dipping' to come?

If not how many have you bought?

[uppompeii] 01/8/2014 20:42

Everything dipping nicely for the winter rally! Have to stay positive...

[bracke] 01/8/2014 14:12

rHatton

The first target is intraday. To break above the 2 Hour SMA 200 at 897. It should be able to achieve this without too much problem.

The next target may be more difficult - 920 which has been a previous s/r zone.

[rhatton] 01/8/2014 13:48

Bracke.

Appreciate your input here even though I do not post very often.

Do you see a reversal now? Nice hammer on the charts. Where would you be targeting if this is a reversal?

[bracke] 01/8/2014 13:11

2flat

I presume that as AHT is UK based, Sunbelt is subject to UK tax rather than the higher US tax.

The brakes have been applied and share price now reversing.

Anyone bottom fishing?

[2flatpack] 01/8/2014 12:15

Bracke
I overlay the two regularly, last week URI was higher over 1d,5d,1m,2m,3m,6m and 1y.
I put it down to the exchange rate plus our cousins seem to value a successful
business far higher.
As you pointed out URI have no divi. but they do have a buy back.
Cheers

[bracke] 01/8/2014 10:53

An interesting comparison.

I suspect that if AHT was based in the US it would be different.

[2flatpack] 01/8/2014 10:08

IN penitence for taking a profit sold 50% at 870 .
It seems to have pacified Ash
Interesting times
cheers

[bracke] 01/8/2014 09:58

Having dropped to 870 the share price is at decision zone.

It either applies the brakes or goes for the Daily SMA 200 at 827.

Some sort of normality is returning to the market, the danger is that it will 'swing' too far the other way but look on the bright side it could provide a buying opportunity.

[discodave4] 31/7/2014 21:51

Looks like 875 may be on the cards -http://www.barchart.com/headlines/story/1141083/us-stocks-plunge-wiping-out-july-s-gainsDD

[bracke] 31/7/2014 18:23

ian

I suggest you get down on your knees tonight and pray that the DOW does not repeat what it did from 07 April to 11 April.

[ianwwwhite] 31/7/2014 18:01

bracke

No worries, I'll settle for support at 990 if that's what the chart says - now that I'm a believer!

[bracke] 31/7/2014 17:55

ian

"Well done bracke, I'm impressed!
=================================

Thank you. So you should be.

The DOW has continued falling after the FTSE closed. If it pulls back up later AHT may be supported at 990. If DOW does not pull back then post 49863 comes into play.

Unfortunately I can't make SPs' rise or fall only suggest what they may do.

Once the 'dust settles' I will look again.

[bracke] 31/7/2014 17:42

2flat

5 Spoil sport.

6 URI are down 5.15% as I type.

"It is next week I am worried about."
===================================

I thought you were a buy & holder. As you post, look forward to next year.

[ianwwwhite] 31/7/2014 17:31

Well done bracke, I'm impressed!

1). Post 49837 28th July:
Over the weekend I had time to spend on the charts I am currently watching.
There is a strong probability that the share price will move closer to 880-890. Please note 'closer'. It maybe it will not drop all the way but below 920 is highly likely.

2) Post 49863 31st July:
A fall below 875 which is a fair probability would then suggest a further move towards the Daily SMA 200 at 826.

Post 1 achieved, post 2 looking pretty likely as the Dow currently stands at -200+

Now, then, using TA, can you make the share price go back up?

[2flatpack] 31/7/2014 15:50

Bracke
1 & 2. Uncertainty outside the US, last for days if not hours in the US
3. True but already priced in.
4. If it is bird in the hand, what do they know that we don't? worrying .
5. Please don,t bring leisure activities into the discussion.
6. So compares well.
QE ending interest rate rise will fuel dollar I am looking forward to next year
It is next week I am worried about.
cheers