Ashmore Share Discussion Threads

[cerrito] 13/10/2023 13:23

When I read these rather disappointing but perhaps not very surprising results I asked myself if the market would be surprised and judging by the share price action it clearly has been.
I will not be selling as this represents my core EM holding and indeed apart from small holdings in BRLA and AAIF(which is not pure EM), I have no other EM exposure.

[brucie5] 13/10/2023 11:11

Hmm. Looks like breaking lower.

[shawzie] 13/10/2023 10:55

Well, let us hope that the dividend will be paid in December. If my memory is still functioning correctly, I believe that the dividend is to be paid from reserves.

[cwa1] 11/10/2023 08:36

As ever, FWIW:-

* Ashmore ASHM.L : Jefferies cuts target price to 200p from 230p

[shawzie] 09/10/2023 11:57

Funds run by emerging markets specialist Ashmore Group are among the most exposed to bonds issued by embattled Chinese property developer Evergrande.
Perhaps the foregoing is one of the contributing factors.

[shawzie] 09/10/2023 11:26

The dividend may be sizeable, but the share price trend has been uncomfortable for the recent past few years and I expect that trend to continue for the present.

[cwa1] 09/10/2023 08:32

Morning All

Sorry to inform you that I joined the "merry" throng this morning at almost 183p in aggregate. My apologies for inflicting this upon you as it will surely spell doom ;-)

Seriously though, good fortune here one and all.

PS: That's a formidable dividend comping up soon-and IF it's maintanable this looks decent value IMO

[simon gordon] 02/10/2023 14:53

JO Hambro - 2/10/23

Finally, we added to Ashmore post results. We have held this position at a low level
as the business works its way through the ‘V’ in emerging market debt allocations. Its
funds are now performing, and weightings towards emerging market debt are at
historic lows, which should collectively lead to a turn in fund flows in due course. Half of the market cap is now represented by excess capital/cash. On a long-term basis, it is on a very distressed valuation. Our weight is now 75bps.

[cerrito] 06/9/2023 08:49

Dividend maintained and just covered by the skin of its teeth. Good that they outperformed benchmark.

[velocytongo] 20/7/2023 09:14

Don't forget ASHM went long £ and short $ during the Truss madness and will be sitting on a massive FX gain.

[brucie5] 18/7/2023 09:28

Thanks Cerrito, I hold in an income folio and can see no reason to change my mind. EMs have a place in a diversified folio and this seems a good way of gaining exposure to any recovery while getting a dividend. The share price combined with yield looks attractive to me with above average income plus potential for good capital recovery. But then I also hold VOD!

[cerrito] 15/7/2023 21:42

I was hoping for better news on Friday given the positive commentary I have been reading on EM as being a good place to be.I had never regarded them as subscale, 1jat, but you made me think. I guess if you look at the current AUM of us 56m it is subscale but is it with the AUM  of two years ago of us 94m or even 3 years ago of us 84m? In terms of your point of corporate action, I have no feel of how full of vim Mark Coombs with his 30pc odd shareholding, is.. Trying to work out how old he is 65?. For some people that is young others old. I have no feel if the dividend will be cut, Brucie5. My gut tells me no but it could go either way. Pleased to read that as of June, 2/3rds of AUM outperforming over one and three years so they must have had a good calender  Q2 2023 .I saw in the June  presentation report the figures for March 23 for relative performance for 1,3 and 5 years. Good relative performance in local currency bonds and equities. Over all three time periods, blended debt was a disaster and neither external or corporate debt pretty. I am badly long and wrong here but sub 200 p I feel one is OK, especially if the good vibes for EM continue. 

[brucie5] 14/7/2023 15:12

Anyone aware of a broker update here? I'm curious to know what might be the implications for the dividend.
As 1jat says: BAD: outflows in FUM, which in current circs, is hardly surprising; but GOOD: performance.
According to div data the current yield stands at 7.80, making it a decent income share.

[1jat] 14/7/2023 07:34

Todays quarterly update does not make great reading as outflows continue and were 5-6% although this would reflect client allocation decisions made earlier in the year.

The positive is investment performance….maybe that will change the flow towards the assets ASHM specialises in.

Overall ASHM is subscale….like many and could do with being part of a larger group.

[brucie5] 20/6/2023 16:46

Another overlooked dividend share?

I noticed this coverage by a rather thoughtful poster called 'Boon' on Stocko this month - since when the share price has come still further down.



BUY - Ashmore (LON:ASHM) – As the saying goes, fund managers make money in good and bad times. The last few years has been challenging for emerging market specialists such as Ashmore, which means we’re somewhat at the bottom of the cycle for EM fund managers. Yet, I can still get a 7% dividend yield (granted, not fully covered by earnings), a very strong cash positive balance sheet, and a very strong brand in the market. It is also still very much owner-owned and owner-operated, which is a business I love as it lets me sleep soundly at night. Especially for financial services firms, where too often the professional managers are in it just for their short-term bonuses. I do not know whether EM will be back in fashion with investors anytime soon. But for me, things can’t worse than they are. And if/when a recovery comes, EPS potential growth is 60%-100%, which should translate nicely to share price growth too. In the meantime, I’ll get to collect 7%+ dividends, which seem secure given the track record.

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It also appears to be a house favourite at the IC, where Mark Robinso wrote this back in 2022:



Ashmore is one of our long-term buys and based on the strength of its balance sheet, an implied dividend yield in advance of 8 per cent and an enterprise/cash profit multiple of 3.7 (against a five-year average of 10.9), we think the current rating is compelling, even given the bumpy road ahead.

FWIW, I hold.

[stewart64] 11/11/2022 08:38

Well that Wealth Oracle article was timely wasn't it! advising folk not to buy Ashmore at the nadir.
248/180 ( incl. dividend) since then or a 38% recovery.
Can't be many FTSE stocks that have done that this last month. Whatever transpires from hereonin, there is a huge tradeable profit to be taken now from when the article was written. Edit...traded out at 241.3

[stewart64] 09/11/2022 12:20

The dividend pullback was brief indeed. The recovery has been unrelenting since the 12th October, with the dividend 228/ 180 or a rise of 27%, one of the biggest recovery plays in the FTSE 250.

At some stage, of course, it will falter.

[cerrito] 03/11/2022 08:33

With the drop at opening just double checked that we have gone ex div today for 12.1p

[stewart64] 01/11/2022 11:24

Less of a retreat than a rout for the shorters here..20% up in little over a fortnight. Cheers to whoever downvoted me for suggesting the 180s were a good entry point.

The last month has been the moment for high yielding, value, recovery shares.

[stewart64] 17/10/2022 20:31

Not invested here before, but when you have a company close to multi year lows with a solid balance sheet ( 550 million in cash at 30/6 with zero debt) and a fwd 9% dividend it's tempting in spite of last year's disappointing profit. I might take a punt tomorrow depending on the price movement.

[kalai1] 14/10/2022 12:41

Ashmore Group plc, the specialist Emerging Markets asset manager, issued a trading update this morning. Assets Under management in the quarter ended 30 September 2022 declined by US$8.0 billion to $56 billion over the period, comprising net outflows of US$5.0 billion and negative investment performance of US$3.0 billion. The net outflows were predominantly a result of institutional investors reducing exposure in the external debt, local currency and blended debt themes, and local currency flows also include net redemptions of US$0.8 billion from overlay funds. Share price has been falling for 20 months now and is at 6 year lows, valuation is back to average. But with much of the global economy set to experience recession in 2022/23 there is little reason to expect the de-risking to stop just yet. ASHM is a solid specialist asset manager and is worth monitoring, but there is no reason to buy anytime soon....

...from WealthOracle

hxxps://wealthoracle.co.uk/detailed-result-full/ASHM/583

[cerrito] 20/9/2022 10:31

FT today have an article on the short interest in Ashmore as a long only fund... And indeed short interest in another long only fund ABRDN and indeed Hargreaves Landsdowne, neither of which I hold.
Apparently in early September short interest in Ashmore was 9.1pc up from 2.8pc early in the year. Odey has a 1.6pc short position and JPAM, Wellington and Citadel are others with an Ashmore short.
I understand many of you would have been more energetic than me and done your own research on this.

[topvest] 10/9/2022 12:18

I'm still holding. I will maybe await the next trading update / half year results before adding more, but hopefully will do better soon.

[1jat] 02/9/2022 15:00

Management held the final dividend in todays results which is a positive.

They expressed confidence in the business and EM investments….is it time to consider buying?

[1jat] 17/8/2022 17:01

Bend1pa
I comment as I see things, I thought about buying a while back at 400+ but did not, since then I have seen it fall and have not been brave enough to buy in. I dont take short positions so am still waiting for a reason to buy and then hold for a long time. I appreciate I will miss out on the bottom, but want a firm base to grow from.

There are few posters on this board and I would love some existing holders to make the buy case here….

Overall I am a believer that EM investing has its rewards and that should make Ashmore a go to investment….but I really am not convinced by the macro environment.

In the meantime I did read the Chinese govt was seeking to support Chinese developers, and with evergrande being one of Ashmore’s big bets that may have helped them recently…the share remains highly volatile in my opinion, hence the wide spread of analyst opinions, although they may also be targeting different time horizons or statements of value.