Ashmore Share Discussion Threads

[1jat] 14/7/2023 06:34

Todays quarterly update does not make great reading as outflows continue and were 5-6% although this would reflect client allocation decisions made earlier in the year.

The positive is investment performance….maybe that will change the flow towards the assets ASHM specialises in.

Overall ASHM is subscale….like many and could do with being part of a larger group.

[brucie5] 20/6/2023 15:46

Another overlooked dividend share?

I noticed this coverage by a rather thoughtful poster called 'Boon' on Stocko this month - since when the share price has come still further down.



BUY - Ashmore (LON:ASHM) – As the saying goes, fund managers make money in good and bad times. The last few years has been challenging for emerging market specialists such as Ashmore, which means we’re somewhat at the bottom of the cycle for EM fund managers. Yet, I can still get a 7% dividend yield (granted, not fully covered by earnings), a very strong cash positive balance sheet, and a very strong brand in the market. It is also still very much owner-owned and owner-operated, which is a business I love as it lets me sleep soundly at night. Especially for financial services firms, where too often the professional managers are in it just for their short-term bonuses. I do not know whether EM will be back in fashion with investors anytime soon. But for me, things can’t worse than they are. And if/when a recovery comes, EPS potential growth is 60%-100%, which should translate nicely to share price growth too. In the meantime, I’ll get to collect 7%+ dividends, which seem secure given the track record.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

It also appears to be a house favourite at the IC, where Mark Robinso wrote this back in 2022:



Ashmore is one of our long-term buys and based on the strength of its balance sheet, an implied dividend yield in advance of 8 per cent and an enterprise/cash profit multiple of 3.7 (against a five-year average of 10.9), we think the current rating is compelling, even given the bumpy road ahead.

FWIW, I hold.

[stewart64] 11/11/2022 08:38

Well that Wealth Oracle article was timely wasn't it! advising folk not to buy Ashmore at the nadir.
248/180 ( incl. dividend) since then or a 38% recovery.
Can't be many FTSE stocks that have done that this last month. Whatever transpires from hereonin, there is a huge tradeable profit to be taken now from when the article was written. Edit...traded out at 241.3

[stewart64] 09/11/2022 12:20

The dividend pullback was brief indeed. The recovery has been unrelenting since the 12th October, with the dividend 228/ 180 or a rise of 27%, one of the biggest recovery plays in the FTSE 250.

At some stage, of course, it will falter.

[cerrito] 03/11/2022 08:33

With the drop at opening just double checked that we have gone ex div today for 12.1p

[stewart64] 01/11/2022 11:24

Less of a retreat than a rout for the shorters here..20% up in little over a fortnight. Cheers to whoever downvoted me for suggesting the 180s were a good entry point.

The last month has been the moment for high yielding, value, recovery shares.

[stewart64] 17/10/2022 19:31

Not invested here before, but when you have a company close to multi year lows with a solid balance sheet ( 550 million in cash at 30/6 with zero debt) and a fwd 9% dividend it's tempting in spite of last year's disappointing profit. I might take a punt tomorrow depending on the price movement.

[kalai1] 14/10/2022 11:41

Ashmore Group plc, the specialist Emerging Markets asset manager, issued a trading update this morning. Assets Under management in the quarter ended 30 September 2022 declined by US$8.0 billion to $56 billion over the period, comprising net outflows of US$5.0 billion and negative investment performance of US$3.0 billion. The net outflows were predominantly a result of institutional investors reducing exposure in the external debt, local currency and blended debt themes, and local currency flows also include net redemptions of US$0.8 billion from overlay funds. Share price has been falling for 20 months now and is at 6 year lows, valuation is back to average. But with much of the global economy set to experience recession in 2022/23 there is little reason to expect the de-risking to stop just yet. ASHM is a solid specialist asset manager and is worth monitoring, but there is no reason to buy anytime soon....

...from WealthOracle

hxxps://wealthoracle.co.uk/detailed-result-full/ASHM/583

[cerrito] 20/9/2022 09:31

FT today have an article on the short interest in Ashmore as a long only fund... And indeed short interest in another long only fund ABRDN and indeed Hargreaves Landsdowne, neither of which I hold.
Apparently in early September short interest in Ashmore was 9.1pc up from 2.8pc early in the year. Odey has a 1.6pc short position and JPAM, Wellington and Citadel are others with an Ashmore short.
I understand many of you would have been more energetic than me and done your own research on this.

[topvest] 10/9/2022 11:18

I'm still holding. I will maybe await the next trading update / half year results before adding more, but hopefully will do better soon.

[1jat] 02/9/2022 14:00

Management held the final dividend in todays results which is a positive.

They expressed confidence in the business and EM investments….is it time to consider buying?

[1jat] 17/8/2022 16:01

Bend1pa
I comment as I see things, I thought about buying a while back at 400+ but did not, since then I have seen it fall and have not been brave enough to buy in. I dont take short positions so am still waiting for a reason to buy and then hold for a long time. I appreciate I will miss out on the bottom, but want a firm base to grow from.

There are few posters on this board and I would love some existing holders to make the buy case here….

Overall I am a believer that EM investing has its rewards and that should make Ashmore a go to investment….but I really am not convinced by the macro environment.

In the meantime I did read the Chinese govt was seeking to support Chinese developers, and with evergrande being one of Ashmore’s big bets that may have helped them recently…the share remains highly volatile in my opinion, hence the wide spread of analyst opinions, although they may also be targeting different time horizons or statements of value.

[bend1pa] 10/8/2022 15:30

Seems to be shooting up since your 'terrible' reading. Currently up over 20% in less than a month. Only Berenberg have this as a strong sell with a target 170. On the other hand Barclays have this as overweight with a 300 target. I think you're putting too much of a negative spin on this.

Wouldn't be shorting this by any remote chance, would you? ;)

[1jat] 14/7/2022 06:32

Todays trading update makes terrible reading.
AUM down 18%
Invest,ent performance -10%
Customer cash flows -8%.

A shrinking business….it may still be quite profitable given asset manager margins are large but not many businesses can lose 18% of fee income, with perhaps worse to come….

The downward pressure on the share price may continue for a while……will the BOD want a merger? To protect the company’s value?

[1jat] 11/7/2022 12:12

Recent analyst target prices are 170-190….
This is heading down further due to a retreat from EM risks.
ASHM taking too much risk with client money in evergrande and Ukraine.

Keep on watching…

[1jat] 08/5/2022 11:28

Wealth oracle seems to be saying buy but not yet.
There is a way to go with EM with specific investment strategies by ASHM to buy evergrande debt and have higher weighting in RUS/UKR are yet to lay out…..expect more poor performance and institutional outflows.

Getting to the territory where someone could make an offer, but it depends on Coombs whether an could succeeed.

Still going down in my opinion towards 150.

[value hound] 24/4/2022 17:09

Anyone got broker forecasts for this year & next - eps & divis?

[km18] 14/4/2022 13:03

Ashmore Group plc the specialist Emerging Markets asset manager published a Q3 AUM update this morning. Assets under management declined by US$9.0 billion over the period Q1 2022, including net outflows of US$3.7 billion and negative investment performance of US$5.0 billion. In particular the Group experienced net outflows in its fixed income and equity investment themes, mostly accounted for by institutional mandates.
Obviously riskier asset classes such as EM investments take a disproportionate hit in times of market turbulence and stress. As CEO Mark Coombs observed with respect to the war in Ukraine, “The shock is likely to weigh on investor sentiment in the short term.” AUM growth or otherwise is the key performance metric for fund managers, it is the base from which revenues derive. While valuation looks reasonably attractive following a year of share price falls, there is no rush to buy while AUM are contracting. The business is high quality and attractively valued, but it is a share to monitor for now....

...from WealthOracleAM

[1jat] 12/3/2022 17:52

Bloomberg reporting ASHM was overweight Russia and Ukraine compared to benchmark for its largest retail funds.
Ashm has grown large taking big risks with client money…..this is going into reverse as those risks turn sour.
Poor performance and loss of clients on its way…..not forgetting the small matter of being the largest non Chinese holder of evergrande debt.

Sell in my opinion……;Coombs will sell out eventually but in a fire sale environment or he hangs on for a long rebuilding of ashm reputation.

[jonathb] 03/3/2022 19:19

Y it's too late to sell. Big exposure to stuff like NILSY. We'll see what happens. IMHO doubling down has already gotten expensive enough.

[cerrito] 01/3/2022 10:35

I guess we are owed a RNS on the impact that the freezing up of the Russian debt and equity market will mean for them although I appreciate that they are still trying to work out what is going on.

It takes a braver soul than me to buy more ASHM at this time.

[1jat] 19/2/2022 18:10

Evergrande exposures will be in client owned funds, so there will be no P&L effect, except for management fees reduced by any lowering of value in the fund.
There are risks if they act without integrity to compensate funds but these almost never happens or is covered by insurance.

The real risk from evergrande is reputational, if ashm take excessive risks on behalf of clients who then suffer poor investment returns they may find business walking away from them. Watch institutional fund flows and AUM movements for this.

For Coombs to get out he needs a deal at some point….maybe sooner than we realise…but a trade buyer may not want to pay a premium knowing the management has more knowledge an knows what risks are lurking beneath the surface.

If ashm still exists in 18m I might have a small stake, but am staying out until interest rates and inflation peaks pass as these are usually bad for emerging markets.

[bend1pa] 15/2/2022 12:55

So with over $400m exposure to Evergrande, not a word about this anywhere in the interim statement, nor any provision made in the accounts.

Did I miss something here, or did Ashmore miss something?

[jonathb] 10/2/2022 11:18

Does that mean projected a little under 3.5% total divs for 2022?
BTW I wish they'd said a little more about Evergrande. Still, pleased I caught the falling knife bang-on @270p