Ashmore Share Discussion Threads

[bend1pa] 10/8/2022 16:30

Seems to be shooting up since your 'terrible' reading. Currently up over 20% in less than a month. Only Berenberg have this as a strong sell with a target 170. On the other hand Barclays have this as overweight with a 300 target. I think you're putting too much of a negative spin on this.

Wouldn't be shorting this by any remote chance, would you? ;)

[1jat] 14/7/2022 07:32

Todays trading update makes terrible reading.
AUM down 18%
Invest,ent performance -10%
Customer cash flows -8%.

A shrinking business….it may still be quite profitable given asset manager margins are large but not many businesses can lose 18% of fee income, with perhaps worse to come….

The downward pressure on the share price may continue for a while……will the BOD want a merger? To protect the company’s value?

[1jat] 11/7/2022 13:12

Recent analyst target prices are 170-190….
This is heading down further due to a retreat from EM risks.
ASHM taking too much risk with client money in evergrande and Ukraine.

Keep on watching…

[1jat] 08/5/2022 12:28

Wealth oracle seems to be saying buy but not yet.
There is a way to go with EM with specific investment strategies by ASHM to buy evergrande debt and have higher weighting in RUS/UKR are yet to lay out…..expect more poor performance and institutional outflows.

Getting to the territory where someone could make an offer, but it depends on Coombs whether an could succeeed.

Still going down in my opinion towards 150.

[value hound] 24/4/2022 18:09

Anyone got broker forecasts for this year & next - eps & divis?

[km18] 14/4/2022 14:03

Ashmore Group plc the specialist Emerging Markets asset manager published a Q3 AUM update this morning. Assets under management declined by US$9.0 billion over the period Q1 2022, including net outflows of US$3.7 billion and negative investment performance of US$5.0 billion. In particular the Group experienced net outflows in its fixed income and equity investment themes, mostly accounted for by institutional mandates.
Obviously riskier asset classes such as EM investments take a disproportionate hit in times of market turbulence and stress. As CEO Mark Coombs observed with respect to the war in Ukraine, “The shock is likely to weigh on investor sentiment in the short term.” AUM growth or otherwise is the key performance metric for fund managers, it is the base from which revenues derive. While valuation looks reasonably attractive following a year of share price falls, there is no rush to buy while AUM are contracting. The business is high quality and attractively valued, but it is a share to monitor for now....

...from WealthOracleAM

[1jat] 12/3/2022 17:52

Bloomberg reporting ASHM was overweight Russia and Ukraine compared to benchmark for its largest retail funds.
Ashm has grown large taking big risks with client money…..this is going into reverse as those risks turn sour.
Poor performance and loss of clients on its way…..not forgetting the small matter of being the largest non Chinese holder of evergrande debt.

Sell in my opinion……;Coombs will sell out eventually but in a fire sale environment or he hangs on for a long rebuilding of ashm reputation.

[jonathb] 03/3/2022 19:19

Y it's too late to sell. Big exposure to stuff like NILSY. We'll see what happens. IMHO doubling down has already gotten expensive enough.

[cerrito] 01/3/2022 10:35

I guess we are owed a RNS on the impact that the freezing up of the Russian debt and equity market will mean for them although I appreciate that they are still trying to work out what is going on.

It takes a braver soul than me to buy more ASHM at this time.

[1jat] 19/2/2022 18:10

Evergrande exposures will be in client owned funds, so there will be no P&L effect, except for management fees reduced by any lowering of value in the fund.
There are risks if they act without integrity to compensate funds but these almost never happens or is covered by insurance.

The real risk from evergrande is reputational, if ashm take excessive risks on behalf of clients who then suffer poor investment returns they may find business walking away from them. Watch institutional fund flows and AUM movements for this.

For Coombs to get out he needs a deal at some point….maybe sooner than we realise…but a trade buyer may not want to pay a premium knowing the management has more knowledge an knows what risks are lurking beneath the surface.

If ashm still exists in 18m I might have a small stake, but am staying out until interest rates and inflation peaks pass as these are usually bad for emerging markets.

[bend1pa] 15/2/2022 12:55

So with over $400m exposure to Evergrande, not a word about this anywhere in the interim statement, nor any provision made in the accounts.

Did I miss something here, or did Ashmore miss something?

[jonathb] 10/2/2022 11:18

Does that mean projected a little under 3.5% total divs for 2022?
BTW I wish they'd said a little more about Evergrande. Still, pleased I caught the falling knife bang-on @270p

[cerrito] 02/2/2022 18:26

Going through FCA's list of shorted stocks as of Jan 25 I see that ASHM had 3.81% shorted but have no comparative figures.

[ammons] 25/1/2022 23:11

The fall in the share price is related to Evergrande debt isn't it? I could not find any comment at all about that in your linked article?

[tmfmayn] 19/12/2021 12:59

[SharePad] Screening For My Next Long-Term Winner: Ashmore #ASHM

"I would venture the high yield could make the share very suitable for a diversified FTSE 350 income portfolio."