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[fictitious1] 18/8/2024 18:26

MT,

A great read, with a lot of positiivity and a smile.

Stay strong. ATB.

[chessman2] 18/8/2024 16:27

MT, managing your own case when you have a serious disease is absolutely essential as more often than not, the consultant involved not only has a large caseload but they are not always an expert about the problem.

My family not only had to recommend a special drug, the name of which was obtained from US sufferers, for my wife but also provide other guidance. Two polite guidance notes from us were greeted with “yes, of course“ and an apology.

[royalalbert] 18/8/2024 11:43

Glad to hear you are feeling a bit better MT, a highly valued poster on many boards in my opinion.

We have our very own champagne socialists in this Country, sure people know who I'm talking about.

[11_percent] 18/8/2024 09:57

A really beautiful chart......9 week up-trend.

Momentum still rising......at over 10.

There is resistance at 32.....these wicks have been reversed at 32 in the last 3 weeks.

Still......9 week up-trend.....which aint fickin bad.





free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[mount teide] 18/8/2024 09:37

For some perspective, Michael Bloomberg's largest yacht would typically burn around 500 gallons of marine diesel an hour at a 20kt cruising speed.

That's around £3,500 in fuel costs to move it 20 nautical miles(circa 22 land miles) ......while burning through enough diesel to enable an average family saloon to travel over 25,000 miles or once around the world at the equator !

'History Supreme' is the world's most expensive superyacht at 4.8 billion dollars. It's one twelfth the length of a VLCC Oil Tanker. You could build fifty new 400 metre VLCC's, each with a capacity of 2.5 million bbls of oil and a 25 year commercial life, and instantly become one of the world's largest tanker owners for the price of 'History Supreme'!

[tim000] 18/8/2024 09:36

Amen to that!

[royalalbert] 17/8/2024 15:56

Jailbird doesn't matter were India buys it's oil from, if not Russia it would be another place all things relative.

America is the biggest oil producing Country and is lucky at this present time due to technology, but the easy oil has been accessed that is why some of the basins will soon see a fall in production if not already happening. As it becomes harder to access this oil the price as to increase to make it viable.

Taking this in to consideration OPEC will have the upperhand in the future and they will dictate the price. They are not stupid neither high oil price or low suits them, but what price is agreeable???

All of this is for the future and neither you or me have any idea.

[jailbird] 17/8/2024 14:37

MT,

i stand corrected about Russia

[mount teide] 17/8/2024 13:29

jb - OPEC and its allies including Russia are known collectively as OPEC+

[mount teide] 17/8/2024 13:15

Oil Price - Posted this on my blog on the 2nd August:

Would agree that recent data points to a softening of the economic outlook, although mostly in the West........whereas many Asian countries like Vietnam are still booming with recent double digit growth.

So, in this connection, would like the economists who are suggesting a softening of the economic outlook in the USA and China as the reason for lower oil prices, to answer a few of my questions!

Since stock markets have a long history of being leading indicators, why is the recent negative data not affecting the 'feel good factor' S&P 500, which is booming, up 13% year to date, after a huge 22.3% increase in 2023?

And why, when global oil consumption is at an all-time high, is the paper short on oil now greater than peak covid when demand had collapsed by over 15 million bopd?

In addition, such is the growth of the economies of SE Asia, intra Asian trade is now over 60% of all trade conducted by this economic block. Many with long first hand experience operating shipping to the SE Asian economies and the growing impact of globalisation, scoffed when in 2000, a survey of leading economists forecast that intra-asian trade would not overtake trade to the high spending West before 2050.....how wrong can you be? It blew through parity in 2018.

So, with the continuing exponential growth in intra-asian trade, why does slowing economic growth in the West matter to oil consumption when well over 90% of oil demand growth comes from the emerging economies which now collectively have a greater oil consumption and, continue to grow at multiples of the rate of the West?

Why did oil consumption in the west continue to grow throughout the 5 year period between 2010 and 2014 when oil averaged close to $150 bbl adjusted for inflation?

From an economic perspective, SE Asia and its 4.8 billion population no longer needs the West like it used to do. If the fast growing oil consuming nations of China and India had an oil consumption per capita equivalent to the US, they would jointly consume over 200 million bopd, close to twice the world's current production, before taking into account demand from the other 2.4 billion population of SE Asia where oil consumption per capita is growing even faster.

So, why is almost every fundamental factor determining oil pricing apart from the record paper short position, pointing to higher pricing today?

[jailbird] 17/8/2024 11:51

RA,

But remember India and China have been buying oil from Russia and not OPEC+

[royalalbert] 17/8/2024 11:40

Tom111, South East Asia plus India are forecast for good growth 2025, India by itself forecast of 6.5%. People seem to be hung up on US, China and Europe as if they are the only Countries which use oil.

[tom111] 17/8/2024 11:00

As we all well know China is part of the problem they have cut back drastically on oil imports over the last few months which is causing a drag on the oil price imo.The Middle East is another issue with oil prices being dictated by which way the wind blows regarding the talks taking place.Its anyones guess what will happen there.In the meantime oil seems to stick around $80,im sure AXL are comfortable with that

[chessman2] 17/8/2024 10:07

Yes, the clever guys in New York have a lot to answer for. There again the election is soon.

I may be confused but the Democrats always seem to want the oil price down in order to gain more votes.

[mount teide] 17/8/2024 09:53

Over the last year or so, the oil price has become almost completely detached from normal supply/demand dynamics - adjusted for inflation, $80 oil is extremely cheap by historic standards. It's been lower, but only briefly, on just three occasions during the last 20 years - the 2008 GFC, the 2016/17 Commodity Market cycle low and, the Covid Pandemic.

With global oil demand back up to an all time record level and continuing to grow at a 1-2% annual clip - why are paper oil shorts now at an all-time record level? Even greater than briefly seen during the nadir of the covid pandemic when global oil demand collapsed almost overnight by circa 15 million bopd(15%)?

Answers on a postcard to the US FED and their "You scratch our backs and we'll scratch yours" market manipulator friends, the Wall Street Investment Banks.

Ps: At an historically cheap price of $80 oil why is petrol and diesel so expensive in the West?
'Over the period from 1987, duty on unleaded petrol has increased by over 60 percentage points MORE than the rate of inflation'.......Institute for Fiscal Studies

[tim000] 17/8/2024 09:26

Many thanks, a very informative interview. I completely buy in to the long term story of growing EM demand, underinvestment in new supply and failed green economics. Like jailbird, personally I don’t buy in to the short term price forecast to the same degree; I think Dave makes perfectly valid points. Energy demand is inelastic wrt price, less so wrt GDP growth as Mike says. Mike estimates that 55% of GDP growth feeds through to energy. I suppose Mike would point to the inventory drawdown that indicates an increasingly tight market. However, OPEC can increase production quotas just as easily as they can reduce them, and with a rising price to say $100 pb it must suit some OPEC members to produce more. And December is just 4 months away. From Mike’s perspective, he’d have been better off not dying in a ditch over such a short-term forecast, especially as his long-term fundamentals analysis is so convincing.

[the_gold_mine] 17/8/2024 09:13

Jailbird. Mike Rothman has an excellent track record of making correct calls in the oil market ahead of anyone else, in fact many consider him to be the best in the game.
He called the bull market for oil beginning in October 2020 ahead of everyone else, evidence for this below.



To note that his viewpoint is also shared by another oil macro analyst, HFI Research. These institutions are paid to do research and are not hedge funds trying to suck in investors.

[jailbird] 17/8/2024 08:33

TGM,

That is very optimistic, only further geopolitial issues will bring in these higher prices

[the_gold_mine] 17/8/2024 07:44

Macro oil analyst and Cornerstone Analytics supremo Mike Rothman interviewed by Dave Rosenberg, he makes a high conviction call that we close the year with Brent crude at $115/bbl and no lower than $95/bbl. He sees energy stocks in North America advancing between 40% and 60% which is a bold call.



Fantastic and informative interview which illustrates using data that demand is strong, which contrasts sharply against the mainstream narratives that US shale production is surging and weak Chinese demand is going to limit upside...

[upwego] 17/8/2024 06:40

Thanks RR for sharing :)

[pastybap] 16/8/2024 18:40

Gold dust with a couple a 100carat plus diamond thrown in - the HZ4 looks good comment!

[rockyride] 16/8/2024 18:33

Another little sprinkling of gold dust:-Q - When do you expect to issue the 2025 capital budget and associated drilling program?A - 2025 Capital Budget is approved by the Board at November, however, we will be disclosing 2025 management plans before that.Q - How is the HZ4 drill going and will the results of it be issued this month? A - HZ4 looks good. We should have a press release out before the end of the month. Q - Are the 6 monthlies due this month?A - We plan to issue Q2 around August 28th.Good weekend to all fellow investors here.