Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[charles clore] 28/8/2019 10:27

soul - shouldn't there be an rns if it was MT selling? Looks like whoever it was started at 2.6p and took it down from there. It just HAD to rebound at some point - and then yesterday I saw that long wick on the daily...

[soulsauce] 28/8/2019 10:23

Well given the price movement this morning it is certainly looking like the seller may have cleared. Hope it was Metal Tiger, always hated that chunk of shares hanging over us.

[jc2706] 28/8/2019 10:16

2tyke,

I can assure you that there is a sampling issue.

[charles clore] 28/8/2019 10:09

- agree silver producer comment and is turning out to be a great bonus here.

[jaynesdad] 28/8/2019 10:02

backmarker
Nothing new in what you say but a very nice summation. The only thing I can see that will undermine the 'underpin' here is a dramatic reversal of the current PM rally - silver price is particularly impressive, and some published assys almost imply we are a silver producer that also has gold in cetain areas! re Turkey, all I would say is would rather invest in a company operating in Turkey than Africa.

[2tyke] 28/8/2019 10:01

That's right shortarm...nice guy :)

[soulsauce] 28/8/2019 09:58

Lol Shortarm ;-)

[shortarm] 28/8/2019 09:55

2tyke - what's your interest here to suddenly become such a prolific poster?(Other than sharing your vast knowledge out of general good heartedness obviously)

[2tyke] 28/8/2019 09:45

George

You could but remember that most investors get influenced by peer views, especially when they all seem to be in one direction as they are now.
I'll be going leveraged short gold when I believe the top is in. The big losers will be leveraged gold longs.

Biggles
No, not an economist. They are hopeless with stock markets. They always project current data linearly into the future. A bit like fundamental investors do.

[georgethefourth] 28/8/2019 09:26

2tyke - it wouldn't be that hard if you were sure of the 10 year trend was up. Pop into a high street jewellers and load up on sovereigns then sell in ten years. You'd have made 800% doing just that last time, and if you used leverage and bought calls and miners...

[backmarker] 28/8/2019 09:22

whether or not there is a big seller who has now finished or not, daily trade volumes have been low for some days and which in itself would explain the twitchy share price movements.

even though AAU IS a producing mine it is clear to me that AAU will be a much more attractive proposition next year when the debt has been paid off and free cash flow increases rapidly. however as events tend to be discounted months in advance I would expect the market to start recognising this as we approach nearer April 2020.

based on a good track record of meeting targets, etc., the current core of the company must be regarded as relatively non-speculative, which should mean no real surprises and hence no frenetic share price movements.

however AAU has several exciting prospects (Salinbas, etc.), but it would seem that little value is bein attached to these at present.

so what I see in AAU is a company with few downside risks (Turkish political situation notwithstanding) and plenty of upside potential.

I wouldn't go so far as to call it a "safe bet", but compared with its peers it certainly looks like one.

keep calm, drink a nice malt whisky, and wait.....for this company to have its "crazy moment"

[bigglesbingham] 28/8/2019 09:12

Your not an economist are you? Make up a theory then base future theories on a made up one?

[bigglesbingham] 28/8/2019 09:10

We will see but I'd be surprised if less than $1700 personally. Think next quarterly will start to see sharp rerate to the value fundamentals dictate and that's without kizilcuker, tarsvan, salinbas, new investment rnss.

[2tyke] 28/8/2019 09:08

JC
The bull/bear secular cycles are well established. It's the same with most commodities but with differing lengths of bull/bear. Golds is rather precise and I could go further back in time with the gold standard in place, and the same cycles. There is no sampling problem.

George

It's hard to make a killing in gold even if you know the cycles. Gold is very volatile and has many counter - trend movements. Timing is difficult.

Bond rates and interest will be rising going forward. We are towards the end of a downward cycle in rates. There are no shortage of buyers in low or negative yielding bonds. Both fear and greed drives investors into mistakes.

[bigglesbingham] 28/8/2019 09:05

Broker note flash out stating they believe the debt repayment becoming zero will be the catalyst. They also state inter company loan repayments continuing and nearly $3m now. It would have been nice for this snippet to be included in the rns I didn't see it but haven't had chance to digest it yet.

[soulsauce] 28/8/2019 09:02

May be biggles but I was taking an average bearing in mind the PoG has been in the $1400s for most of the current quarter.

[ironstorm] 28/8/2019 09:01

HG has hit the nail on the head. PE of around 5 should be expected.

It will gravitate to that in time. Just don’t hold your breath.

PE of 5 = 5p. Minimum target without further developments.

[soulsauce] 28/8/2019 09:00

JD sounds about right.

bigglesbingham yes plenty of cash, need to do something with it.

[bigglesbingham] 28/8/2019 08:58

I'd have a bet on nearer $1750 soul

[bigglesbingham] 28/8/2019 08:57

Makes sense underpromise over deliver no one likes a target not to be reached. Having said that plenty of cash at these rates.

[jaynesdad] 28/8/2019 08:49

Hi Soul, I'm making no predictions about production next quarter. To an extent the management can choose (within limits) the result they want from various grades stockpiled. The target of 25000 oz this year came as a shock to some after the 2018 result (27000, including a very low 2018 Q1 result?) but it struck me as deliberate and I suspect the 2019 result will be closer to this target than some expected. I guess that means 6500 oz per quarter average. I say that because AS was known to be the highest grades as far as is known, and in fact turned out better than expected. The management has to manage the expectation gong forward, it would be hard to sell 30000+ oz this year followed by, say, 24000 oz next. I therefore expect there is some 'smoothing' going on. This is obviously pure & total supposition on my part, so cant defend it to those who disagree!

[charles clore] 28/8/2019 08:31

HG - what's not to like?

Note to self - factor the state right in to AISC for future years.

Looks like the seller has gone.

[georgethefourth] 28/8/2019 08:30

2tyke - with respect that all sounds a bit simplistic. Up for ten years then down for 20. If it were that easy everyone would make a killing. Besides, you've also got to take into account whatever the commodity is priced in. In sterling, gold has broken out to the upside already. In dollar terms, it went from 100 to 800 in the 1970s, then spent the next 20 years forming a base around 400. It never got anywhere near its former lows.

You could look at golds pricing in three different ways that I can see:
1. In and of itself. As you seem to.
2. Assume gold is stable and any price movements are really currency movements
3. A mixture of the two

I'd be more inclined to go with the last of those. Monetary policy is unsustainable. The global debt levels are unsustainable. The concept of negative interest rates are unsustainable (Denmark recently launched a fixed rate residential mortgage at negative rate! The bank paying customer to borrow... Insane). The pension funds cannot survive at these low interest rates and are unsustainable. The bond markets rely on governments buying up the issues, since few people want to be locked into long term products at marginal or negative rates - except spivs who just want to sell them on straight away. It can't last. Gold will though and people know this

[soulsauce] 28/8/2019 08:25

Nothing in Kerim's statement gives me confidence that we will be back in 7000oz territory next quarter but at least with the silver credit we will be getting nearly $1600 per oz.

No dixi I don't either.

[dixi] 28/8/2019 08:21

Is the reasoning for the increased costs for this quarter something that has been flagged up previously? I don't remember any previous references?